Questions & Answers: US military aid: What the billions bring to Kiev

New US military aid for Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia, which has been blocked for a long time, is now expected to arrive soon. US President Joe Biden wants to quickly approve the package of 61 billion US dollars (around 57 billion euros) that has already been approved in the US House of Representatives after the foreseeable approval of the US Senate. Will it bring a new turning point in the war? The questions and answers at a glance:

What does this long-awaited US aid bring to Ukraine?

After months of rationed ammunition, soldiers in Ukraine are expecting primarily artillery shells with a size of 155 millimeters. Kiev’s military leadership also relies on long-range ATACMS missiles for attacks in areas occupied by Russian troops. US Senator Mark Warner said they could arrive in Ukraine as early as next week. He also praised the successes of the Ukrainian armed forces in destroying Russian soldiers, weapons and military technology, “without the loss of a single American soldier.”

To date, Washington has delivered ATACMS with a range of 165 kilometers. But Ukraine wants ones that can reach targets within 300 kilometers. President Biden has to decide. Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder also said that the US was also considering sending military advisers to Kiev.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is primarily relying on more anti-aircraft systems and the associated missiles. To Kiev’s delight, Germany is delivering another US Patriot anti-aircraft system. However, the Ukrainian leadership wants monitoring to determine where such systems are still located and can be handed over to Kiev. Zelensky’s goal is to regain sovereignty over the airspace. The country is also expecting the promised US F16 fighter jets.

However, a large part of the money is not used for the needs of Ukraine itself. Among other things, they are intended to replenish the depleted arsenals of the USA and its allies. Despite the new package, Kiev will have to make do with less than in previous years. And this in a situation in which war enemy Russia is constantly expanding its own production and can also rely on the manufacturing capacities in Iran and North Korea.

How quickly will aid arrive in Ukraine?

It is expected that the first ammunition can be delivered in the next few days after Biden signs the law. According to military experts, Ukraine has improved its logistics to deliver weapons and ammunition to the front sections. US officials recently said that rockets and artillery shells from American warehouses in Europe could be handed over. Nevertheless, it could take weeks before the aid is actually felt in Ukraine.

The help still comes much later than Kiev had hoped – what does that mean for the war?

The military aid is primarily intended to stop the Russian advance. Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Western military aid is vital to the survival of the country fighting for its independence. The new aid is intended not only to stabilize the situation in the country, but also to fuel the country’s hopes for a new offensive to liberate its Russian-occupied areas – and for a victory. However, Russia is likely to exploit the current material and personnel limitations of the Ukrainian military until US aid actually arrives, according to an analysis by the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) in Washington.

What is the situation at the front?

Zelensky speaks of a difficult situation, but it is not so bad that the country surrenders with its hands raised. The head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service HUR, Kyrylo Budanov, expects problems on the front especially in mid-May and early June because the Russians chose a complex approach. But the situation is “not catastrophic. Armageddon is not coming, as many may now say,” he said. For months, Russia has repeatedly announced that it is gaining territory, especially in eastern Ukraine. However, the ISW experts in Washington emphasized that the Russians were only recording operational successes – and not a real breakthrough on the front line that would amount to a strategic success.

Soldiers are needed to operate the weapons – how does Ukraine solve the personnel problem?

Ukraine currently has more than a million women and men under arms. Of these, over 800,000 are directly in the army, the rest in the National Guard and border troops. A good 300,000 soldiers are said to be deployed directly at the front along the almost 1,000 kilometer long front line. To compensate for the loss of dead and wounded, it is estimated that Kiev can draft a good 20,000 new soldiers per month. The mobilization age, which was recently reduced to 25 years and stricter registration requirements for men subject to military service through a new law, are intended to improve the situation. The need this year is estimated at more than 300,000 soldiers.

At the same time, the willingness to join the army is extremely low. According to a survey, only a good 20 percent of eligible 25- to 59-year-olds can imagine fighting in the army. New videos are circulating on social networks every day that show real hunts for those subject to military service. More than 700,000 Ukrainians subject to military service are also registered as refugees in the EU alone. They are unlikely to return to the country before the end of the war.

How is Russia reacting to the new aid from the USA and the West as a whole?

The Kremlin emphasizes that US aid will not change the situation in the war. Russia has long accused the United States of being a belligerent and waging a proxy war in Ukraine. Washington’s goal is to exploit Ukraine in order to destroy Russia. Kremlin spokesman Peskov emphasizes almost daily that the arms deliveries will ultimately prolong the war and that more and more Ukrainians will die – and that the attacked country will still lose territory. Russia’s state television shows long reports from defense factories how ammunition is produced and the war economy is in full swing. New types of robots for combat zones and tanks with new interceptors to protect them from drone attacks will be presented.

What are the EU states and NATO doing to support Ukraine and complement US aid?

There are many different projects in Europe to provide urgently needed military aid to Ukraine – but some of the most important ones have recently made slow progress. The EU failed with its plan to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine within a year. And an initiative by the federal government to provide additional air defense systems had not brought any tangible success as of this Monday. Only Germany itself has so far given a firm commitment to an additional Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. A Czech initiative to procure ammunition for Ukraine is going somewhat better. It has already collected enough money to be able to buy 500,000 rounds of artillery ammunition for Ukraine in non-EU countries. Financiers were recently sought for 300,000 more.

Military aid commitment within the EU varies greatly. While Northern and Eastern European countries as well as Germany and the Netherlands provide comparatively much support, other economically strong countries such as France, Italy and Spain are very cautious. This is also why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently proposed promising military support worth 100 billion euros to Ukraine over the next five years. Each NATO state would then have to contribute a fixed share.

How long will the war last – and are there any chances for peace negotiations?

What is clear at the moment is that there is no end to the war in sight. It could last for years. In Russia, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeatedly assert that Moscow is ready to negotiate. However, they demand that in order to do so, Ukraine would have to cede territory in addition to not joining NATO. Ukrainian President Zelensky rejects this as well as freezing the conflict. Zelensky has presented his own peace plan, the key point of which is that Russian troops withdraw from all occupied territories. Russia rejects this as “completely unrealistic.”