CDU party conference: The situation for Friedrich Merz is not earthquake-proof

Opinion

Let’s rewind three years. Messe Berlin, January 2021. Friedrich Merz loses the race for CDU chairmanship for the second time, this time against Armin Laschet. But instead of humbly accepting his defeat, Merz publicly offered the Chancellor his move to the cabinet. It is the hubris of a man who believed he was chosen to free the Union from Merkel. But it fails with a crash at their camp. Half the party laughed. Merz seemed like history.

Judging by that, everything is going well for Merz this Monday. He’s standing in the Estrel Hotel in Berlin, no one is laughing, everyone is clapping. The Christian Democrats elect the Sauerlander as their chairman with almost 90 percent. That’s not 100 percent. But firstly, for someone whose attempt to return to politics seemed to have failed three years ago, one or two missing votes can be tolerated. And secondly, another German people’s party has not had good experiences with giving a chairman 100 percent. The fate of Martin Schulz is still remembered in the CDU.

The word solid probably best describes Merz’s party conference start, but it certainly isn’t brilliant. His speech is surprise-free and somewhat bloodless. The appearance in short: Friedrich Merz thanks Friedrich Merz for the reconstruction work of the past two years, but at the same time hugs so many people that at least no one gets the impression that a crazy party leader is standing in front. The comeback as a collective effort is a beautiful story.

Did you briefly read Max Weber?

And otherwise? Merz appears as emphatically responsible and ethical as if he had previously read the collected works of Max Weber. He talks about what he would reform in a slightly lengthy manner, without coming across as too clumsy as someone who wants to get into the Chancellery as quickly as possible. He is reminiscent of Helmut Kohl without seeming like someone who would like to clone the former chancellor. Merz speaks in such broad terms about the dangers from Russia and China that he would pass any fact check. Just don’t make any mistakes – that’s the goal on this day.

Why should he take the risk? The federal election is only a year away and if things don’t go wrong with the devil (or Markus Söder), Merz is sure to be the candidate for chancellor. His rivals in the CDU lack the leverage to take them away from him, which is why Merz must have been clear before the party conference that he didn’t have to do much more than maintain his lead. Catenaccio politics. That’s not nice. But effective.

Panic would slowly have to break out among the Social Democrats around Olaf Scholz if there weren’t two big elephants in the room in the Estrel Hotel, which are tame for the moment but can break away at any time.

Why you in the CDU are now very excited

One elephant is called Markus Söder. Because the CSU chairman showed his full destructive potential in the last election campaign, no one in the Union can assume that Söder will simply let Merz march towards the Chancellery. Of course the situation is different than in 2021. The only question is whether Söder is different. The probability? Tends to zero. On Tuesday, Söder will give a “welcome address”. That’s why people in the CDU have been very excited for days.

The other elephant is called Friedrich Merz. The CDU still has doubts about whether he has what it takes to be chancellor, the emotional strength, the sovereignty. Figures have been passed around in the party for weeks that suggest he is not exploiting the Union’s potential among the electorate. The chairman himself also seems to feel the vibrations. The caution with which he used his rhetoric speaks volumes.

In short: Merz can be satisfied with his re-election. The situation in the CDU is not earthquake-proof.