You often hear from German politicians that Ukraine is also fighting for Europe. However, the German population is unlikely to expect a Russian attack on NATO territory this decade.
Although Western security experts believe a Russian attack on NATO territory is possible in the foreseeable future, for many Germans this is still a rather unrealistic scenario. This is shown by a current survey by the opinion research institute YouGov on behalf of the German Press Agency.
According to this, 36 percent of German citizens consider it likely or somewhat likely that the Russian military will attack a state that is part of the alliance by 2030. At 48 percent, almost half of adult Germans are of the opinion that such a scenario is unlikely or rather unlikely. 15 percent of participants in the representative survey did not know an answer to the question of how likely a Russian attack on a NATO state would be by 2030. Among those surveyed who said they voted for the AfD in the last federal election, the proportion of those who consider a Russian attack on NATO territory to be unlikely was significantly higher than among supporters of other parties.
As a defense alliance, NATO relies on the principle of deterrence. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty regulates the obligation of assistance in the alliance and states that an armed attack against one or more Allies is considered an attack against all.
The head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, said in an interview in February that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to restore a Greater Russia within the borders of the former Soviet Union, a Russian world empire in which he would rule like a tsar. “If Putin does not lose the war in Ukraine, we must expect that he will also reach out to the Republic of Moldova or the Baltic states,” said the former foreign policy advisor to former Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU).
After the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, Finland and Sweden applied to join the Western military alliance; Both states are now members.
Russia is producing more weapons and ammunition
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) said in a talk show in May that Russia was producing weapons and ammunition in excess of what was needed for the war of aggression against Ukraine. He added: “Now you can be naive and say that he’s just doing that out of caution. As a skeptical person, I would say in this case that he’s doing that because, in case of doubt, he has plans or could have something.”
According to the survey, 23 percent of adult Germans consider it likely or somewhat likely that Germany could become the target of an attack by the Russian military this decade. 61 percent of German citizens have the opposite opinion.
Hardly anyone is satisfied with the state of the Bundeswehr
If the majority believed in such a scenario, many Germans would probably be very worried. Only two percent of the survey participants are convinced that the Bundeswehr is currently very well positioned for national defense. Twelve percent of those surveyed see the troops as “rather well” positioned. 39 percent of Germans are convinced that the Bundeswehr is very poorly or rather poorly prepared for this task. In general, older people rate the state of the Bundeswehr somewhat worse than younger people.
In the opinion of a large majority, there is still a lot to be done when it comes to civil protection. 79 percent of Germans consider the federal and state provisions for the protection and care of the civilian population in the event of war to be inadequate. Only one in ten believe that sufficient precautions have been taken in such an event. Eleven percent of those surveyed did not dare to make a judgment on this question.
Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) said at the end of April that not only would the Bundeswehr have to reorient itself in view of the changing threat situation in Europe, but Germany would also have to completely reposition itself in terms of civil defense. “We will have to make further significant investments in good warning systems, modern helicopters and other equipment,” the minister told the German Press Agency. The same applies to the effective protection of critical infrastructure and supplies in the event of a crisis. Part of the expenditure is the responsibility of the federal states, since emergency drinking water supplies are not only needed for civil defense, but also in crises and disasters that have no military cause.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
