Former US President Donald Trump described Latinos as rapists, criminals and animals. Nevertheless, he is ahead in favor of voters for the first time. How can that be? A site visit to Arizona.
Jimmy Lopez has always been a Democrat. He knew nothing other than being a democrat. His grandparents came across the border from Mexico in the 1950s and became Democrats, it was the party of the common people. They settled in South Tucson, the Democratic stronghold in Arizona, and opened a Mexican restaurant, Mi Nidita.
“We didn’t know any Republicans,” says Lopez. “They were like aliens.”
His father, who took over the restaurant, also naturally became a Democrat. He particularly liked the Kennedys, who supported farm labor leader César Chávez, a national hero for many Latinos. And at one point even Bill Clinton stopped by Mi Nidita in the working-class neighborhood of South Tucson and said, “I’m really hungry.”
Bill Clinton came into the kitchen to chat
The Lopezes brought the president five Mexican dishes, now known as the “President’s Plate.” “Clinton went from table to table and chatted with everyone,” says Lopez. “He even went into the kitchen and talked to the cooks, cleaning women and dishwashers. A likeable person, a real democrat.”
Jimmy Lopez, 69, is now the third generation to run the restaurant. A slim, always smiling man, father of four children. He serves the guest the “President’s Plate” and shows photos from previous years, when not only Bill Clinton stopped by, but also celebrities such as Enrique Iglesias, Willie Nelson, Linda Ronstadt and Madeleine Albright.
Trump too?
“I would still like to have that,” he says.
The enemy of many Latinos?
“I don’t particularly like him. But we were better off under Trump.”
His presidency? Better than Biden’s!
It’s an answer that comes up surprisingly often in conversations with Latinos, with people of Latin American descent: Donald Trump the person? Pretty wrong! The presidency? Better than Biden’s! According to a survey by the New York Times, 42 percent of Americans now look back positively on Trump’s four years in the White House. Only 25 percent say that about Biden’s years.
South Tucson is still “purely Hispanic,” as Jimmy Lopez says. The shops: Mexican. The language: Spanish. The music: Banda, Ranchera, Salsa, Reggaeton. Numerous politicians still come to his restaurant, mayors and members of parliament. Still mostly Democrats, but the majority is shaking – for the first time.
And where is Lopez himself?
“I’m a Republican now,” he says sheepishly. He raises his eyebrows as if he himself were surprised.
Republican, he, the scion of a generationally Democratic family from a city full of Democrats. How can that be?
Three problems: inflation, migration, crime
“Three reasons,” he says. “First: inflation. The prices for food, rent and gasoline have risen rapidly, the statistics only adequately capture the extent. We also had to increase prices in the restaurant in order to survive. For many families here, this is no longer affordable. That hurts.”
Secondly?
“The homelessness, drugs, crime. I hear this from my guests. I see it in front of my restaurant. There are no normal people to be seen on the street anymore, only homeless people and addicts, you no longer feel comfortable – here and in many big cities.”
Third?
“The border with Mexico. It needs to be better monitored.”
He says that as a Latino?
“I’m for immigration. My grandparents were immigrants. But they came legally from Mexico. Immigration needs to be controlled. Some dark people are coming over right now.” Like Trump, he calls them “bad apples.”
Biden is only ahead on abortion rights and health policy
These are Biden’s biggest weaknesses in this election year: inflation, migration, crime. According to opinion polls, the president is well behind Donald Trump on these issues. When it comes to the economy, it’s up 14 percentage points, as is inflation. When it comes to crime, it’s up by eight percentage points, and when it comes to immigration, it’s up by as much as 17 percentage points. Biden is only ahead on the issues of abortion rights and health policy. According to the New York Times, Donald Trump has a majority among Hispanics for the first time: 46-40.
It is the most serious difference compared to the 2020 elections. Trump is also making gains among black men, as well as among white workers. But the gain among Latinos is the largest, and it’s causing a significant headache for Democrats.
No group is growing as rapidly as Latinos
Latinos or Hispanics are the fastest growing group in the United States. This year they represent 35 million registered voters, four million more than in 2020, almost 15 percent of the total voters. The categorization is not very helpful. All groups of Latinos are thrown into the pot – the conservative Cuban exiles, the more democratic Puerto Ricans, the rich elites from Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, the majority of Trumpers. And the immigrants from Guatemala, El Salvador, Mexico, mostly Democrats.
“I don’t know if Trump will really win here in southern Arizona,” says Jimmy Lopez. “South Tucson will probably never be in Republican hands. But the increase could be enough to win the state.”
Arizona is a crucial state in the November elections, a so-called battleground state. Joe Biden was able to win it for the Democrats in 2020 for the first time in 24 years, with a lead of just 11,000 votes. This was last achieved by Bill Clinton in 1996 and before that by Harry Truman in 1948. Trump is currently ahead in polls in Arizona by five percentage points.
40 kilometers further southwest, on the edge of the town of Three Points, already close to the border, a settlement of trailers and camper vans stretches into the desert. Here, among cacti, boulders and lots of sand, many of the new immigrants from Mexico live, some of them first-time voters. The Democrats are still ahead here because people are afraid that Trump will close the border and carry out mass deportations again, as he just announced.
It’s not about principles or ideologies
But there is a much more important issue for Mexican-Americans, says Armando Alcaraz. “The economy. We Hispanics vote with our wallets.”
Alcaraz, 68, is a plumber, electrician, auto mechanic, farmer in Three Points. He came to Arizona from Mexico with his parents as a boy. He also always voted for Democrats – like Jimmy Lopez. He is also dissatisfied with Biden – like Jimmy Lopez. “But I will never vote for Trump,” he says firmly.
For Biden?
He rolls his eyes.
“We Mexicans are a separate species,” he says. “For us, it was always about economic survival, not about principles or ideologies. This is continuing now. People are feeling the effects of this enormous inflation. I myself pay twice as much for eggs, milk, gasoline. This hits many of us very hard , especially commuters and families with children.” He’s noticed a pro-Trump trend among his neighbors. “Many Latinos wouldn’t necessarily like Donald Trump as a person, but they will still vote for him. They believe that things will get better for them financially.”
Real wages in the US are rising for the first time under Biden, but he shakes his head at this argument. “We don’t feel it. It doesn’t reach here.”
Trump’s brutal language no longer scares anyone away
And doesn’t anyone care about Trump’s brutal rhetoric?
“We know them by now,” replies Alcaraz.
But she’s getting harder and harder. Trump says migrants are not people. He compares them to animals. He says they are poisoning the blood of the country.
“It’s not nice. But a lot of people here like his direct language. They like the machismo. In any case, it won’t stop them from voting with their wallets.”
So who will win in November?
Alcaraz now looks south, towards the border, at barren mountains that many immigrants cross and then end up in front of his fenced-in property. He helps them with water and food.
USA: Latinos decide the election in Arizona
“I don’t see how Biden can win this state without us Latinos,” he says. “There’s still a lot of work ahead of him. Time is running out for him.”
Not only Arizona, the neighboring state of Nevada is also breaking away from the Democrats, another swing state with a growing Hispanic population. Four years ago, Biden also won Nevada, but now Trump is leading, especially because Latinos are turning away from Biden in disappointment. More and more Latinos are also living in the northeast of the USA, in the most important of all swing states, Pennsylvania. In the working-class city of Allentown, for example, they already make up the majority of the population. Biden also has to increase their numbers by ten percent in order to be able to become president again.
Biden’s team is now focusing primarily on women and the issue of abortion. Until a few years ago, Democrats in Arizona were reluctant to do so because Latinas were viewed as more religious and conservative. That’s changing, not least because Republicans in Arizona revived a draconian abortion ban from 1864. According to a survey by the polling institute PEW, more than 60 percent of Latinas are now in favor of the right to an early abortion.
Biden’s last resort: women
200 kilometers north of Tucson, in the capital Phoenix, a few hundred students are demonstrating against the outdated law, including many Latinas like Jennifer Rincon, 21. She will vote for the first time in November and doesn’t like either candidate. She can’t do much with either party. She also has little use for all the categorizations: Latino, Hispanic, black, white. Like many of her generation, she feels quite lost politically.
But the rigid abortion ban moves them. “This affects me personally. Should I not be allowed to have an abortion even in cases of incest and rape? Where do we live? Even my grandmother over in Mexico has more rights than I do here.”
What she hates about Trump is his brutal nature and his old-fashioned position on the issue of abortion. What she dislikes about Biden is his one-sided support for Israel and his old age. “There is no good candidate in sight for my generation.”
She doesn’t know yet whether Jennifer will vote in November. Unlike Jimmy Lopez, she is not voting for Trump out of dissatisfaction with Biden. Unlike Armando Alcaraz, she is not voting for Biden out of disgust for Trump. Perhaps she will choose a third candidate, she suggests, Jill Stein of the Green Party or Robert F. Kennedy Junior. Or not at all.
That’s the biggest danger for Biden: first-time voters who don’t go to the polls. Especially Latinas, who gave him victory in Arizona and Nevada last time.
So he and Kamala Harris are now specifically betting on their last card among Latinos: not on low unemployment, not on a liberal immigration policy, not even on Trump’s hatred of migrants, but on – women’s right to abortion.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
