Kharkiv offensive: Ukraine has not yet been able to stop the Russians

analysis

Last Friday the Russians opened a new hot front north of Kharkiv. And they achieved rapid successes there, at least if one takes the tortoise pace of operations so far in the Ukraine War as a benchmark.

And to date, Ukraine has not managed to stop the advance. The Russians have captured a number of villages and are on an axis of attack in front of Lypzy. Fighting is already underway in the northern part of the very extensive town.

Attack on the city of Volchansk

During the second break-in, they entered the city of Volchansk. There they occupy around 30 percent of the area. And there are serious fights that will probably continue. In the Volchansk area, the Ukrainians have brought in reinforcements from parts of strong brigades, although the bulk of them have probably not yet arrived. There could be a long and bloody defensive battle in Wolchansk. Lypzy will be much harder to defend as the Russians dominate the heights north of the village. It is a sprawling settlement of dachas and small houses, with only a few larger buildings providing support for the defenders. From Lypzy it is about 17 kilometers to the city limits of Kharkiv.

Volchansk is, after all, a city with 19,000 inhabitants. It is divided by a river, which makes it easier to defend the southern part. However, there is a danger here that the Ukrainians will not be able to hold the city’s flanks and will have to fear being surrounded. In the next few days it is expected that the Russians will advance in the area between their bridgeheads.

No capture of Kharkiv

The attack north of Kharkiv serves several purposes. First, the Russians want to occupy a protective zone that will make it impossible for Ukraine to continue shelling the Russian city of Belgorod with artillery. This shift in the front would lead to Kharkiv coming into the range of Russian barrel artillery and volley guns. Then the Russians will try to further weaken the Ukrainians by forcing them to fight in an unfavorable area.

The entire zone is not nearly as fortified as the Donbass, this deficiency reinforces Russian superiority in artillery and in the air. And there is also a strategic goal: the Russians are forcing the Ukrainians to use their last reserves and even withdraw forces from Donbass. As a side effect, they will try to fight the advancing troops while they are already on the march. The East, and not Kharkiv, is still the Russians’ main thrust: Even if they have not yet sent the majority of their troops into battle, their forces in the area are far from sufficient to conquer the large city of Kharkiv.

The entire area between Kharkiv and Kupyansk in the east is crossed by rivers, and here the Russians are systematically destroying the Ukrainian bridges to prevent supplies and troop movements. The Ukrainians have not yet managed to stop the Russians, but it can be assumed that at least Woltschansk will not fall into their hands too quickly.

Layoffs in Kharkiv

The Russians’ success so far raises several questions. It is true that in the first swing they operated in front of the first Ukrainian defense line. Only this shouldn’t be an open field, but an outpost zone. As a reminder: During the entire summer offensive, the Ukrainian troops only broke into the first Russian defense line in two places and otherwise remained stuck in the outpost field.

Although the attack has been expected for years, the fortifications are inadequate and poorly executed. There is open talk of corruption in Ukraine. Units and systems should only exist on paper. Video recordings of horrified soldiers show trench systems that were tactically incorrectly laid out. Instead of laboriously constructing the systems in the rows of trees, the trenches were dug cheaply with machines in the open field. In some cases the trenches are only waist-high and insufficiently reinforced, the shelters are poorly covered and easy to see from above. In any case, the Ukrainian installations cannot be compared with the staggered Russian positioning system of the Surovikin Lines. It is to be feared that the following defense lines north of Kharkiv are also laid out in a similarly careless manner. Without sophisticated positions that provide mutual cover, without minefields and deep bunkers, tough resistance like in Donbass is not possible.

Ukraine’s hope is that the brigades brought in will stabilize the situation. There is currently no thought of clearing up the situation, i.e. pushing back the Russians. An experienced and energetic commander for the region was appointed in General Mykhailo Drapaty. It is unclear whether the mix of Ukrainian units, some of which report to the regular armed forces and some to the secret service, is hindering operations.

The Ukrainian swearing-in is based on the small FPV drones with which the Ukrainians have also had success. However, you shouldn’t let the hit videos lull you into security. The Russians themselves also used FPV drones and appear to cover the entire area up to Kharkiv with surveillance drones. They also have ranged weapons and artillery of all kinds.

Putin’s target remains the Donbass

So far Ukraine has not been able to stop the Russians, they will continue to widen their “buffer zone”. The aim will be to move the front closer to Kharkiv beyond Lypzy. But that’s not all: There are rumors that Kiev would evacuate villages in the Sumi region – which is also in the north, but a little further west. The Russians actually lack the soldiers for a large-scale offensive, but even a limited operation would put the Ukrainians under pressure.

The Russians are putting pressure on them to decimate the Ukrainian troops before the Western arms packages reach the country in June or NATO states send troops into the country. Putin is also likely to bet that further Russian successes will discourage the people of Ukraine and Western supporters. The Russians will continue to build up the strongest pressure in the Donbass; this will show whether the relocation of troops weakens the Ukrainians so much that the Russians can make decisive progress near Tashasi Yar and Krasnogorovka.