Diplomacy: friendship without borders? Putin visits China

Symbolically, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first trip abroad after his inauguration is to China. With the rising sun, his plane landed at the Beijing capital airport today. State and party leader Xi Jinping received his “old friend” with all the honors and cheered by children at the Great Hall of the People, as is rarely the case with a state guest.

The two-day visit is intended to visibly demonstrate the quality of the relationships. “Russia-China relations have reached the highest level and, despite the difficult global situation, they are getting stronger,” the Kremlin chief told China’s state agency Xinhua in advance.

Beijing is Moscow’s most important partner economically and politically. Putin’s last state visit was in 2018. Last fall, the 71-year-old traveled to Beijing for an international forum and spoke to Xi personally on the sidelines. According to his own statements, he has met the Chinese more than 40 times. While the West responded to the Russian attack on Ukraine with sanctions, Beijing has not condemned the invasion, remains neutral and supports Russia in the UN Security Council. Even before the attack, they both agreed on a friendship “without borders.” Xi once again promised Putin China’s cooperation.

Alliance against the West

“Moscow and Beijing will use the opportunity to underline their close partnership and shared ambitions to reform the global order and form a counterpoint to the USA,” says analyst Helena Legarda from the China research institute Merics in Berlin. According to her, the two are also likely to discuss the Gaza war and criticism of the USA as well as possible circumvention of Western sanctions.

Of course, Putin’s primary concern is to strengthen the alliance against the West. On the one hand, the solidarity is important as a gesture to the outside world to show that Moscow is not isolated. On the other hand, the Kremlin hopes for benevolent neutrality in its war of aggression against Ukraine.

China at a conference in Switzerland?

Under no circumstances does Moscow want Beijing representatives to attend the peace conference in Switzerland on June 15 and 16. China has not yet committed but is seen as a crucial participant because of its influence over Moscow. Putin has therefore demonstratively praised the Chinese “peace initiative”, which speaks of the “legitimate security interests” of all states.

More than a year ago, China published a twelve-point plan to resolve the “Ukraine crisis”. In it, Beijing called for the concerns of all countries to be taken seriously. However, no detailed solution proposals were made, which is why the plan met with international criticism. Moscow has always justified the attack against Ukraine by defending its own security interests.

During the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in April, the top Russian diplomat tried to work out a common line with China. Both countries are determined to create a multipolar world and resist attempts to “slow down the long overdue processes of democratization and justice.” That’s exactly what the US and its allies are trying to do, Lavrov claimed.

Trade is flourishing

Against this background, the neighbors’ trade is reaching a record high. Last year, the trade volume between Russia and China rose by 26 percent to 240 billion dollars (the equivalent of more than 220 billion euros). The trend continued in the first quarter of 2024. Almost $77 billion represents an increase of 4.7 percent compared to the same period last year. Russia mainly sells oil, gas and coal, copper ore, wood and seafood, while it sources from China the goods that it previously purchased largely in the West, i.e. machines, cars, smartphones and computers.

What Putin probably doesn’t like, despite the impressive numbers at first glance: Imports from China fell slightly in the first quarter, which is probably because Beijing restricted the export of sanctioned goods to Russia under pressure from the West. In addition, Chinese banks have recently tightened their demands on Russian clients in order to protect themselves against subsequent sanctions from the USA. Washington wants to cut off Moscow from goods that can be used for civilian and military purposes and target Chinese banks that make remittances for such transactions. The restrictions on payment transactions are extremely annoying for Moscow.

Xi recently in Europe

But unlike Russia, China still has leeway in its relations with Western countries. Putin is visiting the “Middle Kingdom” just a short time after Xi’s European trip, which took the Chinese to France, Hungary and Serbia. Chinese state radio celebrated the visit as a success. However, no progress was made on the subject of the Ukraine war in Paris, Budapest and Bucharest. China sees France as a “bridge between the West and China,” as the state-run Global Times headlined. The powerful EU country could help influence Europe.

In Hungary, China already has a well-disposed and Russia-friendly partner country and EU member that regularly puts the brakes on Brussels’ decisions. EU candidate Serbia has also maintained a close economic partnership with Beijing and Moscow for years.

More gas for China?

Economic issues play a role in Putin’s visit. Russia wants to push ahead with the expansion of the gas partnership. In 2023, 22.7 billion cubic meters of gas came to China via the pipeline called Kraft Siberia – the capacity of the line can be expanded to 38 billion cubic meters per year. But Moscow is already dreaming of a follow-up project, Kraft Siberia 2, with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters. This is intended to make up for the lost deliveries to the west.

However, the parameters for the ambitious, multi-billion dollar project have not yet been agreed, also because China does not want to commit too much and continues to focus on diversifying deliveries. Russia may have to give further discounts on its gas.

The visit is being followed closely in Europe. Statements about the war in Ukraine are particularly likely to be closely monitored. Expert Legarda is rather pessimistic: “Europe should not expect Beijing to change its stance on the war in Ukraine.”