Kim Jong Un has been ruling North Korea with an extremely hard hand for a decade. Executions and labor camps are part of everyday life. But now the corona pandemic and an economic crisis are causing problems. Can Kim still hold onto power?
Ten years ago, a hitherto unknown person took power in North Korea: Kim Jong Un. He took over the reins of the dictatorship from his late father Kim Jong Il – who also took over from his father Kim Il Sung. North Korea, a dynasty-ruled country.
Inwardly, Kim Jong Un is popular and modern. But for observers: abroad he is an ice-cold despot. Reprisals and controls determine the everyday life of North Koreans: inside, as do hunger and poverty. Executions and labor camps are the means of the power apparatus to instill fear and respect for the regime in the population. Severe international sanctions are holding back North Korea’s economic development. Nevertheless, Kim sticks firmly to the nuclear weapons program that his father already set up.
Kim Jong Un is facing a critical phase of his power
Kim Jong Un was less than 30 years old when he took power. That worried neighboring countries. Would the country become unstable? After all, the young dictator was unknown, nobody knew what he wanted and whether he was experienced enough. These worries should resolve quickly, as Kim cleaned up his surroundings and consolidated his power. He had numerous high-ranking political and military officials executed, including his uncle Jang Song Thaek. He is also said to have got his half-brother Kim Jong Nam out of the way with one.
This was followed by missile tests, the expansion of the nuclear program and summits with the warring neighbor South Korea. Kim Jong Un even met with former US President Donald Trump. It seems as if Kim’s power is established and cannot be destroyed.
But the totalitarian ruler is facing a critical time that could affect him and his power. Because it is not only international sanctions that hit the isolated country. The corona pandemic also exacerbates the already bad situation. North Korea closed its borders early for fear of the virus. North Korea is officially considered corona-free. But media reports suggest that the virus has long since reached the country. Corona vaccines are also not available there so far – and that with an inadequate health system. A huge corona outbreak would have fatal consequences.
Corona pandemic affects North Korea economically
However, the pandemic and the closed borders are currently affecting the economy much more severely. As a result, observers think that Kim is unable to meet his economic goals, which could undermine his authority. The government has taken aggressive steps to restore greater state control over the economy amid the country’s border closure. A setback for Kim’s previous reforms, which included private investment and allowed state-owned companies and factories more autonomy and market incentives to facilitate domestic production and trade.
South Korean MP Ji Seong Ho, who fled North Korea, reported to the German press agency that prices in the domestic market had risen. “The main burden has to be borne by the population.” In any case, Ji believes that the “opposition” to Kim among young North Koreans is greater today than it was in Kim Jong Il’s time.
The young potentate had promised in his first public speech as a leader in early 2012 that the North Koreans “never have to tighten their belts again inside.” Experts believe that if he fails to stimulate the North Korean economy, Kim could run into problems.
South Korea’s intelligence services recently announced that North Korea’s annual trade with key trading partner China had declined by two-thirds to $ 185 million by September 2021. North Korean officials are alarmed about food shortages, rising commodity prices and a shortage of medicines and other essential supplies. In addition, diseases such as typhoid would be rampant. Even Kim Jong Un prepared his people for difficult times: In the spring he spoke of “numerous challenges” and the “worst situation of all time”. Kim feared a famine like the one that had ruled the country in the 1990s. In October 2020, Kim even apologized to the people of North Korea and tearfully admitted that he had failed to lead the country through difficult times.
For Kim, nuclear weapons are an important means of power
How Kim deals with the economy in the coming years could determine the long-term stability of his rule and possibly the future of his family’s dynasty, Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told the AP news agency. “The nuclear weapons program, the economy and the stability of the regime are all interlinked. If the nuclear problem is not resolved, the economy will not improve, and that creates unrest and turmoil in North Korean society,” said Park.
The nuclear negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Nuclear weapons play an important role in Kim’s power. Former South Korean nuclear negotiator Lee Do Hoon said that Kim Jong Un had “steered the course towards active nuclear development immediately after coming to power.” Four of the six nuclear tests carried out by North Korea so far have been carried out under Kim Jong Un, the largest to date and the last in September 2017. He also pushed the development of ballistic missiles, which, depending on their design, can also carry nuclear warheads.
So for Kim, his nuclear missiles are a guarantee of power. Then why is he ready to conduct disarmament talks with the USA and then with Donald Trump, who derided him as “Little Rocket Man”? The sanctions have had increasingly clear consequences for the economy, says Lee. “He (Kim) needed some economic relaxation.” But as long as Kim does not make major concessions on nuclear disarmament, Trump did not want to let go of the sanctions.
“Nuclear weapons got Kim into this mess”
But Kim doesn’t want to give up his nuclear weapons, says Andrei Lankov, professor at Kookmin University in Seoul. “The only topic you (North Korea) like to talk about is not the pipe dream of denuclearization, but arms control issues,” he told the AP.
However, Kim could benefit from the Washington-Beijing confrontation, which adds North Korea’s strategic value to China, Lankov said. China is ready to keep North Korea afloat with aids such as food and fuel, and that reduces pressure on Kim to negotiate with the United States. “Instead of growth, North Korea will have stagnation, but not an acute crisis,” said Lankov. “This is an acceptable compromise for Kim Jong Un and his elite.”
Go Myong-hyun, a senior analyst at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, sees it differently. “Nuclear weapons got Kim into this mess, but he has a contradicting policy of advancing nuclear weapons in order to get out of it,” he told AP.
“The US-led sanctions regime will remain in place, and a return to a state-controlled economy has never been the answer for North Korea in the past and will not be the answer now. At some point, Kim will face the difficult decision of how long to keep his.” Nuclear bombs will be kept, and that could happen relatively soon, “Go added.
Kim and his party discuss the future
These days, North Korea wants to determine its political strategy for the future at an important party meeting. As the state media reported on Tuesday, a plenary session of the Central Committee of the ruling Labor Party opened on Monday in Pyongyang in the presence of ruler Kim Jong Un. On the one hand, “the implementation of the most important party and state policies for 2021” should be examined. On the other hand, “the strategic and tactical policies and practical tasks” are discussed and decided in order to lead the development of socialist construction to “the next stage of victory”. Details were initially not given. It was also unclear how long the meeting should last.
Kim often used these important party meetings to issue new security directives and to explain his position in relations with the United States and South Korea. It remains to be seen whether that will happen again, or whether he will promise his country a way out of the crisis – or adjust it to even more difficult times.
Sources: News agencies DPA and,,,,
Source From: Stern
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