France, Italy, Austria, Germany: Right-wing parties can celebrate success in the European elections. Whether EU politics now moves to the right depends not only on the distribution of seats in parliament.
Right-wing parties have achieved great success in the European elections in several countries. In Italy, the Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party of right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was clearly ahead on Sunday. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party won. President Emmanuel Macron then called for early elections for the National Assembly.
In Austria, the right-wing FPÖ became the strongest force. In Germany, the AfD achieved its best result to date, coming in second behind the CDU/CSU.
Across Europe, the two previous right-wing populist party alliances, ECR and ID, gained some significant ground. Overall, however, the clearly pro-European camp in the European Parliament remains by far the largest. Even if all right-wing parties were to join forces, they would probably have fewer than 200 seats and would therefore be far from a majority. The majority is 361 seats.
The winner of the European elections is the centre-right EPP alliance with the German lead candidate Ursula von der Leyen. The CDU politician can hope for a second term as President of the EU Commission.
Italy: Meloni prevails
According to a projection by the television station Rai on Monday morning, Meloni’s party received 28.9 percent in Italy – an increase of more than 20 points compared to the 2019 European elections. A left-wing alliance around the social democratic PD came in second place with 24.5 percent.
Meloni was also the top candidate in the election for the Fratelli d’Italia, which has its origins in the post-fascist movement. However, she does not want to move to the European Parliament, but rather stay in Rome as Prime Minister. The 47-year-old has been at the head of a coalition of three right-wing parties since October 2022. With the current result, her influence at the European level is likely to increase.
Germany: AfD strong – but weaker than at the beginning of the year
In Germany, the European elections were also an important mood test ahead of the three state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in September and the federal election next year. The fact that the AfD is in first place in eastern Germany by a large margin is particularly significant.
Despite the controversy surrounding its top candidate, the party was able to make strong gains nationwide. According to information from the Federal Returning Officer on Monday morning, it received 15.9 percent, an increase of almost five points compared to 2019. It thus performed better than all traffic light parties – the SPD received 13.9 percent, the Greens 11.9 percent and the FDP 5.2 percent. However, the Union is in first place by a wide margin with 30.0 percent.
The AfD’s result was weaker than in polls at the beginning of the year. At that time, the party had been at more than 20 percent. However, allegations against its top candidate Maximilian Krah and the number two on the European election list, Petr Bystron, caused difficulties for the party.
France: Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists ahead
The European elections are a bitter defeat for the French president. According to projections, the right-wing nationalist party Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen received around 32 percent – more than twice as much as Macron’s camp. As a result, the head of state announced a new election for the lower house, with two rounds scheduled for June 30 and July 7. “So at the end of the day, I cannot pretend that nothing has happened,” he said.
Macron’s centrist camp was already weakened. Since 2022, it has no longer had an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Governing has been difficult since then. The focus is also on the presidential election in just under three years. Macron, who twice beat Le Pen in the runoff, is not allowed to run again. It is still unclear who the centrist forces will put forward and who would have a chance against Le Pen. The daughter of the far-right party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen has managed to present a much more moderate image and make the party electable even in the bourgeois camp.
Austria: FPÖ on the rise ahead of parliamentary elections in autumn
In Austria, it is the first time that the right-wing populists have come first in a nationwide election. According to preliminary results, the FPÖ received 25.5 percent of the vote. The conservative ÖVP received 24.7 percent. The social democratic SPÖ followed with 23.3 percent.
During the election campaign, the FPÖ had repeatedly stressed its scepticism towards the EU under the slogan “Stop the EU madness” and portrayed the EU as a warmongering force in the Ukraine conflict. For party leader Herbert Kickl, this seems to bring the goal of becoming the next chancellor closer. A new parliament will be elected in Austria in the autumn.
The Europe-wide result: Centre-right ahead
In the slightly enlarged European Parliament, the EPP remains the strongest force with the German parties CDU and CSU, according to a Europe-wide projection from early Monday morning. It can therefore occupy 184 of the 720 seats (previously 176 of 705).
The right-wing populist party alliances EKR and ID have 73 (previously 69) and 58 (previously 49) seats respectively. The AfD MPs are not included in this count because the AfD was excluded from the ID parliamentary group shortly before the election.
The Social Democrats remain the second strongest camp. They have 139 seats (previously also 139). They are followed by the Liberals, who have slipped to 80 seats (previously 102). The Greens are a big loser. They have only 52 seats (previously 71).
What does this mean for European policy?
In principle, it could be the case that finding a majority in the European Parliament will become even more difficult. The future balance of power there will also depend on whether parties from the existing right-wing alliances ECR and ID join forces to form a new alliance. The Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen recently lobbied the Italian Prime Minister Meloni for this.
It is likely that the centre-right EPP alliance will hold talks with the Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens in the coming days to agree on a loose cooperation that could then secure a majority for the election of von der Leyen. Theoretically, cooperation options with individual right-wing parties could also be explored. The EPP has not ruled out cooperation with Meloni before the election. Its Fratelli d’Italia currently belong to the right-wing conservative ECR group.
Whether EU policy as a whole moves to the right does not only depend on the majorities in Parliament. The balance of power in the Council of EU states is also crucial. The outcome of the 2027 presidential election in France is likely to play an important role in this.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
