New elections in France: What does Emmanuel Macron want to achieve?

analysis

The bombshell was followed by a shock that no one in France would have expected: 31.5 percent of the vote for the right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) in the European elections. If you add the five percent for the Reconquête party, France’s extreme right has a total of over 36 percent. A historically high victory. President Emmanuel Macron reacted promptly: One hour after this predicted result, he appeared in front of the cameras at the Élysée Palace and announced the dissolution of parliament and new elections. The first round of voting is to take place on June 30, the second on July 7.

Is France really ready to hand over power to right-wing populists?

The French are now facing an election that is already being said to be the most important vote in the history of the Fifth Republic. Emmanuel Macron explains that he wants to provide clarity and that the people should decide on the parliamentary future. In other words: the president wants to know and is asking the crucial question – what is the country’s real attitude towards the extreme right? Are people prepared to give them political responsibility for the country beyond the opposition? The supporters of republican France are now called upon if they want to stop the triumph of the national populists. It is a high-stakes bet.

The RN declared the European elections to be a vote on the government. The strategy worked: Behind the high level of support for the right-wing populists and their front man Jordan Bardella there is also frustration and the desire to punish Macron and his ministers. On the other hand, the presidential camp and the moderate left and right forces have not managed to mobilize their voters sufficiently. Many who actually want something different than the RN did not vote on Sunday. No matter how threateningly high the RN was in the polls, the pro-Europeans did not pull themselves together. Things will now be different in the vote on the National Assembly – or at least that is Macron’s calculation.

Jordan Bardella could become Prime Minister

France’s president is famous for his bold moves. Critics, however, accuse him of contributing to the trivialization of the extreme right by portraying them as the only opponent worth mentioning. In the recent European election campaign, the Macronists mainly fought top-level duels with representatives of the RN, making Marine Le Pen’s team the most important opposition party. More nuanced political disputes with other forces were almost non-existent. Calling new elections in such a hasty situation is a risk, because there is not much time left for the election campaign.

Emmanuel Macron’s possible calculation: Disenchant the RN

So what can happen? Marine Le Pen has already announced that she is ready to take power in the country. The big question now is whether the country is ready to do the same. It is quite possible that the RN will expand its current 88 seats in parliament after the new elections. Or even, and this is not out of the question, that as the strongest faction in the National Assembly, Jordan Bardella will be the prime minister.

However, this scenario would have less consequences in the French Republic than in other government systems. As president, Emmanuel Macron would still have limited powers, but would be superior to the prime minister. This possible outcome would have interesting consequences for the RN: instead of simply taking a confrontational approach and opposing all government decisions, the right-wing populists would have to deliver what they promise for the first time.

Much of what the RN is demanding is illusory in terms of political reality and in parts unconstitutional. In addition, even in RN circles it is said that 28-year-old Jordan Bardella is attractive but empty in terms of content. How competent is the RN when it actually has to act in domestic or economic policy? For Macron, all of this is probably also about getting the RN out of the opposition for the next three years – in order to disenchant it for the presidential election in 2027. A high gamble, to be sure. But maybe it won’t even come to that. The new elections are an opportunity to call together and unite the RN’s opponents – at the ballot box and in parliament.