According to expert Christian Mölling, an offensive against the pro-Iranian Hezbollah in southern Lebanon would not solve Israel’s security problems – but create new ones
Security expert Christian Mölling sees no chance for Israel to permanently eliminate the terrorist militias Hamas and Hezbollah. Mölling said on the Israeli-Arab conflict on Friday in star– “The situation – international”: “As sad as it is, I see the only possibility in regulating this conflict to get out of the violence – but if there is peace, it will be a very precarious peace.” The research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations made it clear that Israel could weaken Hezbollah in southern Lebanon by attacking it, but not destroy it. “Israel will not get rid of its problem,” said Mölling. “The question is what bigger problems it will create for itself.” Whether there will be a major attack on Hezbollah also depends on the USA, which is putting pressure on its ally Israel. “We see the high level of nervousness that the USA is currently showing,” he explained. “I can imagine that they are making massive threats against Israel. And saying: You can’t do that.”
Hezbollah better equipped than Hamas
Mölling pointed out that a major regional conflict was avoided in the last exchange of blows between Iran and Israel. In his opinion, Iran has no interest in a regional conflict now either; the same applies to China and Russia. Mölling admitted that an escalation is possible even against the will of those involved. He said there was “the potential for an accident” – but on the other hand, all those involved were very clear about the interests of the others. “The actors know what the risk is,” he said. Hezbollah is militarily much better equipped than Hamas. “It has greater potential to cause problems for Israel,” said Mölling.
No decisive victory to be expected
Mölling believes that a military conflict could result in a shift in power between different Palestinian actors. However, the basic constellation in the region will probably remain the same. He said: “It is unlikely that the conflict will result in a decisive victory – in the sense that there will be a readjustment of the regional order afterwards, with one actor disappearing or losing a lot of power and another having a lot of power, and then it will remain stable.” This is “the sad extrapolation of the past into the future.”
Source: Stern
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