US election campaign: Debate about Biden’s successor: Comeback for Kamala Harris?

When Kamala Harris became Vice President alongside US President Joe Biden in 2021, many in the USA thought that the lawyer could succeed Biden – perhaps even during his first term in office, should he be faltering due to his advanced age. But at the latest as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 presidential election.

Then two things happened: Harris remained conspicuously pale in her role as Vice President. And Biden enjoyed his job so much that he ran for re-election.

But after Biden’s disastrous performance in the TV debate against Republican challenger Donald Trump a week ago, it is unclear whether the 81-year-old is really the right candidate. And so many people are turning their attention back to Harris, who had actually been written off.

Harris as a pioneer

Harris is the first woman, the first black person and the first Asian American to be sworn in as US Vice President. She was born on October 20, 1964 in Oakland, California. Her father immigrated to the US from Jamaica to study economics. Her mother – a cancer researcher and civil rights activist – came from India.

The 59-year-old became the first black district attorney of San Francisco. In 2010, she became the first woman to hold the post of Attorney General in her home state. In 2017, she was elected to the U.S. Senate.

Her next goal: the White House. She wanted to run as a Democratic candidate in the 2020 presidential election. But that didn’t happen – she withdrew before the primaries because of a lack of prospects of success.

The unpopular Vice President

Then Biden made her number two. But she was never able to make a name for herself in this – often very thankless – job. Today, according to polls, her popularity ratings are just as bad as Biden’s.

The reasons for this are varied. Biden gave her responsibility for the unpopular issue of migration. In June 2021, she had to defend herself for not having traveled to the southern border with Mexico as Vice President. Her answer: “I haven’t been to Europe yet either.”

These and other statements caused people to shake their heads, and Harris was unable to win any prizes on the issue of migration. Evil tongues say that Biden deliberately gave his vice president an impossible task.

In the years that followed, Harris tried to find an issue that would help her to win over voters. After the end of the right to abortion in the United States, she tried to campaign for women’s rights – and was at least somewhat more convincing.

Nevertheless, the 59-year-old remained conspicuously pale. But the criticism of her is by no means free of racism and sexism. In the debate about a possible Biden successor, her name was not initially the first to be mentioned. Instead, the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, or the Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, were considered the favorites.

The tide is turning

But now the mood seems to be changing. According to a survey commissioned by CNN, around three-quarters of voters surveyed now say that the Democrats would have a better chance of winning the election if someone other than Biden were to run.

In a scenario where Harris would run against Trump, the vice president would perform a few percentage points better than Biden. In this case, 47 percent of respondents support Trump and 45 percent support Harris. Unlike Biden (49 percent for Trump, 43 for Biden), Harris’ result is at least within the margin of error.

Other polls show that Harris is doing better than Biden among the important voting group of blacks and women. And so, behind the scenes, the voices of Democrats who see Harris as the favorite in the discussion about a Biden alternative have become louder, as US media reports.

What speaks for them?

There are also practical reasons why the ranks are closing behind Harris. Unlike Whitmer or Newsom, Harris is nationally known because of her vice presidential post. If Harris is not chosen, it would also raise questions about what happens to the millions in donations that Biden and Harris have collected in their names. It is unclear whether this money could legally be given to someone else.

Unlike its competitors, it has recently been able to gain international experience – for example at the Peace Summit for Ukraine in Switzerland or at the Munich Security Conference.

If Biden really does withdraw, it would also be important for the Democrats to demonstrate unity in such a historic situation before their party convention in August and not to fall apart in a dispute over the succession.

As vice president, Harris is seen as Biden’s natural successor. In addition, what kind of image would the party give if it simply ignored the first black vice president? This is likely to offend people of color. This is how people who are not perceived as white and who have experienced racism describe themselves.

What speaks against them?

There is no guarantee that the party will unite behind Harris if Biden withdraws. Her poor performance as vice president has been troubling Democrats since long before Biden’s botched TV debate. During the election campaign, some Democrats even considered her a burden.

It would be important that Biden would stand behind her if the worst came to the worst. After the TV debacle, Harris had the thankless task of defending Biden’s performance in an interview. “Yes, it was a rocky start, but a strong finish,” she said. Perhaps it will be the same for her.