British parliamentary election: Labour’s electoral triumph heralds new era in Britain

In English, if you are faced with a task that is almost impossible to solve, you have to climb a mountain. “We have a mountain to climb”: Keir Starmer has repeatedly stressed this since he took over the leadership of the British Labour Party. Now his Social Democrats have not just reached any mountain peak. “He has just conquered Everest and launched into space,” is how the well-known reporter Beth Rigby from Sky News describes the result of the British parliamentary election.

The keys to the famous black door at number 10 in Downing Street will be handed back to Labour after 14 years of conservative government. Around midday on Friday, King Charles III, as head of state, is expected to officially commission party leader Starmer to form a government. The 61-year-old will be able to govern. Outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak congratulated him early in the morning.

According to the BBC’s forecast, the Social Democrats will have 410 of the 650 MPs in Parliament – more than twice as many as before. “Labour will have enough seats to form the strongest opposition faction itself,” jokes journalist Iain Dale.

Sunak’s time as party leader coming to an end

The political situation in the United Kingdom is upside down. The Conservative Party of the current Prime Minister Sunak has suffered a devastating defeat: According to forecasts, the group will shrink to 144 members – barely more than a third of the previous seats. Sunak himself will remain in parliament. Nevertheless, the result of the “difficult night”, as he called it, is likely to cost him his position as chairman. Several candidates for his top post are being discussed in the party.

How large the Labour majority will ultimately be, whether 20 or 200 seats, plays no role in the British parliamentary system. But of course a comfortable buffer makes governing easier for Starmer. The smaller the lead, the greater the risk of being blackmailed by troublemakers in his own ranks on contentious issues. The way now seems clear for Starmer to implement his self-declared ambition and lead Britain through a “decade of national renewal”.

In fact, the huge majority could gloss over the risks for the prime minister-designate. “Labour is facing massive political challenges and is supported by a coalition in the electorate that is very broad but very superficial,” says political scientist Anand Menon of King’s College London. “So it’s easy to see what dangers arise.”

Broad currents within the Labour Party

First of all, Starmer has to keep all the currents within the party happy. Labour cannot simply be equated with its German sister party, the SPD. In Germany, if one were to attempt a comparison, the spectrum would range from the Left Party to the more conservative-oriented Seeheimer Circle in the SPD.

The left wing around former party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who suffered a crushing defeat to then Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2019 and was subsequently pushed out of the party by Starmer, is likely to rebel if Labour moves too far into the political centre. The Conservatives have made room for this with their strong right-wing course in recent years.

Above all, Starmer must now convince the British people who voted for Labour not because of him, but to punish the Conservatives after 14 years of chaos, scandals and economic stagnation. It was not Labour that was elected, the Tories were voted out, said Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, probably the best-known pollster in the country, even before the forecast was made.

In fact, Labour has also suffered a number of setbacks. Leading politician Jonathan Ashworth unexpectedly lost his constituency to an independent, pro-Palestinian candidate. Even party leader Starmer received significantly fewer votes than last time. He too was hit by a candidate who criticised Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip.

Large majority despite relatively few votes

In the British majority voting system, only the winner of a constituency makes it into the House of Commons. Votes for the losing candidates have no effect. In reality, however, it is quite a close call: although Labour is likely to achieve a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons, the party probably received well under 50 percent of the vote. Voter turnout was also apparently very low.

This is also reflected in the results of the smaller parties. According to forecasts, the Liberal Democrats will be able to increase the number of their seats fivefold, while the right-wing populists from Reform UK will have 13 MPs straight away – significantly more than expected. “In government, Labour will have to work hard to retain the voters who voted for Starmer in 2024. Because they didn’t vote for Labour, they wanted to get rid of the Tories,” comments Sky News reporter Rigby.

Huge challenges

It will be difficult to retain voters. The country is facing enormous challenges. The NHS is in ruins, there is not enough housing, the dilapidated prisons are overcrowded, there is an acute shortage of skilled workers, Brexit is still not over, and trust in politics is shaken. The list goes on.

But there is actually no money to finance improvements and to encourage necessary investments. Labour wants to cut tax breaks for private schools, close tax loopholes for wealthy foreigners and increase the excess profit levy for energy companies. But nothing will change for private households, which are already suffering from the highest tax burden in decades. After the first summit, Starmer and Labour still have many more mountains to climb.