France: Forecasts predict an incapacitated parliament

The polling stations are open: 501 constituencies will vote today on which party will send a representative to the National Assembly. In the first round last Sunday, 76 candidates were able to qualify directly because they had achieved an absolute majority.

What is the starting point?

Three political blocs are facing each other: On the right is Marine Le Pen’s “Rassemblement National” (RN) and its allies. In the middle is “Ensemble”, the Macronist camp. On the left is the “Nouveau Front Populaire” alliance. A total of 577 MPs will be elected to the National Assembly. 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority.

Will the RN soon be in power?

According to recent polls, the RN’s chances of achieving an absolute majority have declined, but are not ruled out. It is currently considered more likely that none of the three blocs will achieve an absolute majority.

What happens if none of the blocs gets a majority?

The president appoints the prime minister. This is usually from the largest party. However, if there are three camps of roughly equal strength, he would be de facto unable to act, as any legislative initiative or reform could be blocked by the opposing groups. Until now, the Macronists had governed with a relative majority. They were alternately dependent on support from the left or conservatives – in practice, this only worked to a limited extent.

What does this mean?

In order to keep parliament capable of acting, a broad cross-party alliance will most likely be necessary: ​​MPs from communists to conservatives would have to commit to working together in order to form a majority. Such coalitions require a willingness to compromise, which is not traditionally part of the political culture of the French National Assembly. How capable the republic remains of governing will therefore depend on the parliamentary discipline of the MPs in every decision – at least for one year. Then parliament can be dissolved and new elections held.