The French are very interested in the parliamentary election. By midday, more than one in four eligible voters had already cast their vote. How strong will the predicted shift to the right be?
The second round of early parliamentary elections is underway in France. This will determine how strong the expected shift to the right will be in the important neighboring country – and whether Marine Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists could even come to power. By midday, a good one in four eligible voters had already cast their vote.
At 12 noon, turnout was 26.63 percent, according to the Interior Ministry in Paris. In the first round of voting a week ago, turnout was 66.71 percent overall, and at midday it was 25.9 percent.
In the last regular parliamentary election in 2022, voter turnout in the second round at midday was 18.99 percent, which shows the strong interest in the early election by French standards. The last polling stations close at 8 p.m. in the evening. Projections on the election outcome are expected then.
Shift to the right also has an impact on Europe
The French are voting on the majority in the National Assembly. But above all, everything revolves around the question: Did President Emmanuel Macron pave the way for the right to power with the surprise new election? This would be a turning point in the country’s history and would also have major consequences for European politics.
The latest polls do not predict an absolute majority for Le Pen’s leading Rassemblement National (RN). According to them, the right-wing nationalists and their allies would have 205 to 240 seats, more than twice as many as they currently have. Although they would fall well short of the absolute majority of 289 seats, they would still be the strongest force in the National Assembly for the first time, which would mean a historic shift to the right in France.
Humiliating defeat expected for Macron
In second place is the new left-wing alliance formed for the early parliamentary elections, consisting of the Greens, Socialists, Communists and the Left Party. According to the polling institutes, President Macron’s center camp must expect a humiliating defeat; it is in third place in the latest surveys.
After the power play with the parliamentary elections brought forward by the President, the Macron coalition is now facing a shambles and will most likely only have a greatly reduced number of representatives in parliament. Macron, once celebrated as an innovator and advocate of a strong Europe, is likely to lose influence at home and abroad after this embarrassment.
Will RN leader Bardella become prime minister?
Regardless of the outcome of the election, the current government of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is expected to remain in office as caretaker government for a few more days until there is clarity about the formation of a future government. However, this could take some time – the situation is more complicated than it has been for a long time.
If the RN wins an absolute majority, Macron would be under political pressure to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the right-wing nationalists – such as RN leader Jordan Bardella – for the first time.
This would mean that there would be so-called cohabitation in France for the first time since 1997. This means that the president and prime minister represent different political directions.
Conservatives could be kingmakers
If the RN has a strong relative majority, it is expected that it will try to attract more members of the bourgeois-conservative Républicains (LR) to its side in order to gain decision-making power in parliament.
The former People’s Party had split in the run-up to the election. Its leader, Eric Ciotti, had agreed to cooperate with the RN without consulting his party, but only a small number of MPs followed him.
Impending standstill
It is currently unclear how things will continue in France if the alliance of most of the other parties against the RN actually works. The other camps – including the resurgent Socialists – have already made it clear that they do not want to govern together in a kind of national coalition. The current government could then remain in office as a transitional government or a government of experts could be installed. Such a government would not be able to launch any new projects without a majority – France is therefore threatened with political stagnation.
After Le Pen’s Rassemblement National won the European elections in early June, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections. The National Assembly is one of two French parliamentary chambers. It is involved in legislation and can overthrow the government by means of a vote of no confidence.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
