Election to the National Assembly: Parliamentary election in France: Left surprisingly ahead

According to initial projections, the left-wing alliance is surprisingly ahead in the parliamentary elections in France. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National could therefore only come in third place behind the centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron, as the broadcasters TF1 and France 2 reported after the polls closed. Neither camp is likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.

According to the figures, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire could win 172 to 215 of the 577 seats. Macron’s forces will therefore receive 150 to 180 seats and the Rassemblement National (RN) around Marine Le Pen and his allies 120 to 152.

Surprise success with alliance of convenience

The result is a big surprise. After the first round of voting a week ago, forecasts put the RN just short of an absolute majority and thus possibly in a position to form the next government. Nevertheless, the RN has made significant gains: in the dissolved parliament it still had 88 seats.

The left and Macron’s centre forces had formed an alliance of convenience before the second round of voting. In order not to take votes away from each other in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round and thus help the RN to win locally, several candidates from the left and the liberals withdrew. They called on their voters to vote against the RN in any case.

France’s divided left had only a few weeks ago joined forces to form the Nouveau Front Populaire for the parliamentary elections. The parties had still run separately in the European elections. The main dispute within the left is over the old left leadership icon Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The populist, who has attracted attention with his Eurosceptic statements and is clearly pro-Palestinian, is being heavily criticized even within his own party.

The alliance of leftists, communists, socialists and greens does not have a clear leadership. There is also no common program.

Will there be a minority government or a grand coalition?

What will happen next is unclear for the time being. The result will give rise to various future scenarios. The left could try to get support from the centre forces – either as a minority government with tolerance or in a kind of grand coalition. Given the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear whether this could succeed. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, for example, has explicitly ruled out government cooperation with the left-wing party La France Insoumise.

It is unclear whether President Emmanuel Macron would be politically compelled to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the left in such a scenario. The National Assembly can overthrow the government.

Must Macron give up power?

With a prime minister from the left, Macron would have to share power. The prime minister would become more important. What this would mean for Germany and Europe is unclear. The left-wing alliance represents very different positions on many major political issues.

What seems clear, however, is that even in a coalition with the left, Macron would not be able to continue his course unhindered, but would be forced to make a number of compromises.

Without a majority, there is a risk of stagnation

If neither camp can find a government majority, the current government could remain in office as a transitional government or a government of experts could be installed. In such a scenario, France is threatened with political deadlock. Another dissolution of parliament by Macron and new elections will not be possible until July 2025.

For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris would no longer be available as an important player in Europe and as part of the German-French tandem. Instead of new initiatives, administration would be the order of the day in France. President Macron’s office may remain untouched by the election, but without a government capable of taking action, he too would not be able to implement his projects.

RN victory would have had consequences for Germany and Europe

Brussels and Berlin are likely to be relieved by the election result. The right-wing nationalists may be able to expand their faction in the National Assembly. But a government seems virtually impossible for them. This would have been the worst case scenario for Germany and the European Union. In contrast to Macron, the RN has little faith in the decades-long close cooperation with Berlin. The Eurosceptic nationalists are also striving to curb the influence of the European Union in France.

With an RN government, France would have moved massively to the right politically. For the first time since the Vichy regime, which collaborated with the Nazis, right-wing extremist forces would have come to power again.

Doubts about the change in Le Pen’s party

The alliance of convenience between the left and liberal forces was a major disadvantage for the right-wing nationalists in the second round of elections. The fear of a right-wing nationalist government is also likely to have driven many people to the polls.

In addition, several RN candidates have been criticized for alleged right-wing extremist or anti-Semitic statements in the past. This raised public doubts about Marine Le Pen’s “de-demonization” of the party. With this approach, Le Pen has been trying for years to make her party appear more moderate and to make it electable even in the middle class.

Left camp benefits from unity and fear of the right

The left benefited from the alliance they formed so quickly. The fact that they left the leadership question open may also have helped them to unite those voters who have a problem with the left-wing populist Mélenchon.

In addition, the left is likely to have received significantly more support due to the uncertainty and fear of a historic shift to the right in France and a right-wing nationalist government.

Macron is doing better than expected

For the unpopular Macron, the result is surprisingly less devastating than expected. Macron failed in his attempt to expand the relative majority of his centrist forces with the new elections. But at least his group could become the second strongest party ahead of Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists and be in government with the left.

In the first round of voting, Macron and his supporters were undone by the unity of the left-wing camp. The dissolution of the National Assembly was viewed by many as irresponsible. The French also blamed Macron for this.