The left unexpectedly wins the parliamentary elections. Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists are far from a government majority. The prime minister now wants to draw consequences.
Surprise in France: Contrary to all expectations, projections show that the left-wing alliance is ahead in the parliamentary election. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National performed significantly worse than expected. It is only likely to come in third place behind the center camp of President Emmanuel Macron, as the broadcasters TF1 and France 2 reported after the polls closed. However, neither camp is likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal took action after the election and announced that he would resign. It remains to be seen whether President Macron will accept his resignation.
Left sees itself in government responsibility
After their surprise victory, the Left Party immediately made clear its claim to government. “We have won and now we will govern,” said Green Party General Secretary Marine Tondelier. The founder of the French Left Party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also demanded that Macron ask the left-wing alliance to govern.
According to the figures, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire could win 177 to 198 of the 577 seats. Macron’s forces will therefore receive 152 to 169 seats and the Rassemblement National (RN) around Marine Le Pen and his allies 135 to 145.
Surprise success with alliance of convenience
The result comes as a complete surprise in France. After the first round of voting a week ago, forecasts put the RN just short of an absolute majority and thus possibly in a position to form the next government. Nevertheless, the RN has made significant gains: in the dissolved parliament it still had 88 seats.
The left and Macron’s centre forces had formed an alliance of convenience before the second round of voting. In order not to take votes away from each other in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round and thus help the RN to win locally, several candidates from the left and the liberals withdrew. They called on their voters to vote against the RN in any case.
The result now shows quite clearly: Despite all the doubts, the firewall against the right is holding. At 67.5 percent, voter turnout was significantly higher than in previous years.
Leadership and internal orientation of the Left open
France’s divided left had only joined forces a few weeks ago to form the Nouveau Front Populaire for the parliamentary elections. In the European elections at the beginning of June, the parties had still run separately. The main dispute within the left is over the old left leadership icon Mélenchon. The populist, who has attracted attention with his Eurosceptic statements and is clearly pro-Palestinian, is being heavily criticized even within his own party.
The alliance of leftists, communists, socialists and greens does not have a clear leadership. There is also no common program.
Will there be a minority government or a grand coalition?
What will happen next is unclear for the time being. It is uncertain whether the Left can form a minority government on its own. The other factions could overthrow such a government with a vote of no confidence.
The left could also try to get support from the centre forces – either as a minority government with tolerance or in a kind of grand coalition. Given the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear whether this could succeed. Socialist leader Olivier Faure has also already spoken out against a coalition with Macron’s camp. The leading social democrat Raphaël Glucksmann brought cooperation on individual projects into play.
The Élysée Palace said the question would be whether a cohesive coalition could be formed to achieve an absolute majority, broadcaster BFMTV reported.
Must Macron give up power?
It is unclear whether President Macron will now accept Attal’s resignation and appoint a leftist as prime minister. In such a constellation, Macron would lose power, and the prime minister, who runs the government, would become more important.
What this would mean for Germany and Europe is unclear and would probably depend largely on who would take the position. The left-wing alliance represents very different positions on many major political issues.
Without a majority, there is a risk of stagnation
If neither camp can find a government majority, the current government could take over on an interim basis or a government of experts could be appointed. In such a scenario, France is threatened with political deadlock. Another dissolution of parliament by Macron and new elections will not be possible until July 2025.
For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris would no longer be actively available as an important player in Europe and as part of the German-French tandem.
RN victory would have had consequences for Germany and Europe
Brussels and Berlin are likely to be relieved by the election result. A right-wing nationalist government, probably the worst case scenario for Germany and the EU, seems to have been averted. In contrast to Macron, the RN has little faith in the decades-long close cooperation with Berlin. The Eurosceptics are also striving to curb the influence of the EU in France.
Doubts about the change in Le Pen’s party
The alliance of convenience between the left and liberal forces was a major disadvantage for the right-wing nationalists in the second round of voting. There was also a stir about earlier, allegedly right-wing extremist or anti-Semitic statements by RN candidates. This sowed doubts about Marine Le Pen’s “de-demonization” of the party. With this approach, Le Pen has been trying for years to make her party appear more moderate and to make it electable even in the middle class.
RN leader Jordan Bardella insulted his political opponents on the evening of the election. He described Macron’s center camp and the left-wing alliance as a “unity party” and an “alliance of shame”.
Left camp benefits from unity and fear of the right
The left benefited from the alliance they formed so quickly. The fact that they left the leadership question open may also have helped them to unite those voters who have a problem with Mélenchon.
In addition, the left is likely to have received significantly more support due to the uncertainty and fear of a historic shift to the right in France and a right-wing nationalist government.
Macron is doing better than expected
For the unpopular Macron, the result is less devastating than expected. Macron failed in his attempt to expand the relative majority of his centrist forces with the new elections. But at least his group could become the second strongest party ahead of Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists and be in government with the left.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
