What consequences does the attack on Donald Trump have for the election campaign? Many Democratic analysts now believe that Joe Biden has no chance – but there are also very different voices.
The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump has immediate consequences for the race for the White House. After incumbent Joe Biden recently significantly intensified his attacks on Trump, the Democrat’s team initially put the re-election campaign on hold because of the assassination attempt and stopped broadcasting campaign advertisements.
The break will not last long. This Monday evening (local time), Biden wants to give an interview to NBC that was already planned before Trump was shot. But while the conversation was originally supposed to focus mainly on doubts about the 81-year-old’s fitness for office, the events in the small town of Butler in Pennsylvania are now likely to take center stage.
The questions will probably also include how Biden intends to react to the attack during the rest of the election campaign and what impact the Democrats expect on the mood of the electorate. Numerous strategists, advisors and analysts from the Democratic Party have already made predictions on this to the US media – and they are surprisingly diverse.
Biden’s chances of victory have dropped significantly
- “We are so screwed”said a longtime Democratic insider, noting that the image of a bloodied Trump raising his fist in the air will be indelible.
- “The presidential election campaign ended last night”said a party consultant. Now the Democrats must concentrate on maintaining the majority in the Senate and winning the House of Representatives. “The only positive thing that last night brought for the Democrats is that we are no longer talking about Joe Biden’s age.”
- A Democratic strategist who has worked on several campaigns said that after the physical attack on Trump, Biden could no longer use his main argument against the Republican: convincing voters that Trump is so extreme that he poses a threat to democracy. “This message is dead”said the strategist. The bullet that hit Trump “likely saved Biden’s nomination” by freezing Democrats’ calls for his resignation and “doomed his re-election campaign.”
- “The clear effect of this assassination is that it officially pushes Donald Trump out of politics and into martyrdom”noted one Democratic campaign veteran. “They’re framing this as an attack on MAGA (the Make America Great Again movement) and not Trump – that’s even more powerful. This is literally biblical stuff we’re talking about here.“The Democrats would “never be able to compete with this level of enthusiasm among core voters,” the veteran explained. “So yeah, we’re even more screwed with Biden. And relying on Trump to be a galvanizing, unifying enemy isn’t going to work either.”
- Mike Murphy, a long-time Republican strategist who opposes Trump, predicted for the Republican nominating convention that begins this Monday: “The raised fist will become the iconic symbol of the party congress.” Trump will likely see a resurgence in the next polls and attract more independent voters. “There will be good, old-fashioned American sympathy for Trump.”
- “Strong and wrong beats weak and right”a Democratic strategist recalled a memorable phrase by former US President Bill Clinton regarding Trump and Biden’s public appearance.
- “The assassination attempt cements Trump’s lead”said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic adviser. “That’s the problem Biden has. How can you compare yourself to a martyr? Because that’s the way the Republicans are going to portray Trump.”
- “Trump is already in the lead. The argument that we need to change things should now only be stronger”said Aaron Regunberg, a member of Pass the Torch, a Democratic group that wants to get Biden to give up his re-election bid.
“Brave and strong” – how US voters react to the Trump assassination attempt
02:10mins
The attack on Trump will hardly influence the election
- Cornell Belcher, the pollster and former adviser to Barack Obama, does not expect any dramatic shifts, especially among the swing voters who are so important in the key states. “Is the moderate suburban mother who is worried about how she’s going to pay for college for her daughter and whether her daughter is going to have as many rights in her life as she had in her life – is she going to say after the shooting, ‘Oh my God! I’m going to vote for Trump!’? No!”
- A Biden ally speculated that the failed assassination attempt would further solidify Trump’s base without bringing him new voters, and that Biden was demonstrating consistent leadership in chaotic times.
- One Democratic operative with extensive experience in presidential campaigns predicted there would be a “slight immediate boost” for Trump among certain demographic groups.”But basically I think the race will stay where it has always been. And we still have a lot of time ahead of us, as crazy as that may seem.”
The chaos in pictures
“Fight,” shouts Donald Trump with a blood-smeared face
Biden could benefit from Trump assassination attempt
- At first glance, he had the impression that the shots would give Trump an advantage, but then he changed his mind, said another veteran Democratic strategist. “Politically speaking, the idea that this will help Trump is a mistake. I think it reminds us that he is a chaos maker.”said the strategist. “That’s exactly when we need someone to bring us together.” He believes that Republicans are taking a political risk if they repeat Trump’s earlier calls for retaliation at the convention instead of toning down their rhetoric.
- Another strategist believes that in the short term, it would be beneficial for Biden to be seen as the one who will calm the American public while temporarily putting aside the election campaign and differences with Trump. “It helps Biden’s arguments. He stands for stability. He is managing a crisis. And in a way he is answering the argument about his intellectual acuity. And that creates a contrast to Trump.”
- And Rob Casey, political consultant at the strategy firm Signum Global Advisers, states: “The silver lining for Biden in this case is that we are no longer talking about his age and his acumen and the possibility of his resignation.”
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Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
