The CDU is launching its state election campaign in Thuringia and Saxony – and is facing a new dilemma. Because its main option for power is, of all things, the Left Party’s splinter group BSW.
It was 1990 when Prime Minister Bernhard Vogel led the Thuringian CDU to its greatest success. The party achieved 51 percent in the 1999 state election.
A long time ago. The country has been governed by the Left Party for ten years now, and Vogel is over 90. Nevertheless, in his role as honorary chairman of the Thuringian Union, he is still fighting tirelessly for the CDU to return to power after the state elections on September 1st.
Vogel: “We can’t rule out everything”
If a government is formed, he told the starthere is a clear starting point for his party: “There can be no cooperation with the AfD or the Left.” After all, the AfD under Björn Höcke is right-wing extremist. And the Left under the socialist Bodo Ramelow is the successor to the SED.
But what about the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance? “Positioning on the BSW is of course difficult for many reasons,” Vogel answers. “But we can’t rule out everything if we want to form a government.”
The BSW gives the CDU a new power option
The former Prime Minister has thus precisely summed up the latest dilemma of the Thuringian CDU. The survey figures from infratest-dimap show that the Union is at 23 percent, behind the AfD (29 percent) and just ahead of the BSW, which is at 21 percent – while the Left under Ramelow has plummeted to 11 percent.
The only majority coalition for the Union beyond the AfD and the Left is a CDU-BSW alliance, although the SPD could join if necessary. The situation is similar, if not quite as precarious, in Saxony, where the state parliament will also be elected on September 1st and the ruling CDU is at 29 percent. Both a continuation of the coalition with the SPD and the Greens (both 7 percent) and a government with the BSW (15 percent) appear possible there.
CDU demarcation decisions led to government crisis
But the poll results also represent progress for the Thuringian CDU – purely mathematically. After all, since the state elections five years ago, the Left and AfD have held the majority of seats in the state parliament, meaning that the CDU has no option for power. After all, there is an equidistance to both parties that was decided at the party conference.
It was this complicated situation that led Thuringia into a government crisis in February 2020: At that time, Ramelow stood for election as prime minister despite the loss of the red-red-green majority in the state parliament, while the CDU and FDP preferred to vote for Thomas Kemmerich. Since the AfD, which operated with a fake candidate, also secretly voted for the FDP state leader, there was a new head of government without a government, who quickly resigned.
For a long time it looked as if the CDU could face a similar situation in autumn 2024 – until Wagenknecht founded her new party. The Left’s values halved, and the AfD lost seven percentage points.
AfD’s plans for a sole government have been abandoned for the time being
The BSW has thus significantly changed the situation for the elections in Thuringia, but also in Saxony and Brandenburg. The CDU has a new option for power, while the AfD’s plans to govern alone have been put to rest for the time being. But can the CDU really ally itself with a left-wing splinter group that has a populist and even demagogic demeanor and represents a mixture of old PDS folklore and AfD propaganda, and not just in foreign policy?
Immediately after the European elections, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz gave a clear answer to the question of whether his party should work with the CDU. “That is absolutely clear,” he said. “We do not work with such right-wing extremist and left-wing extremist parties.” A few days later, under pressure from the East German regional associations, Merz relativized his blanket rejection. He said he had only spoken for the federal level. The regional associations decide independently.
Communicative meandering has strategy
Merz recently expressed himself similarly in relation to possible coalitions with the BSW: “If it corresponds to the principles of the party, the CDU, if it does not violate any of our party conference resolutions, then these state parties have the right to make such a decision.”
The communicative meandering has a strategy. On the one hand, the CDU criticises the Wagenknecht party as a “black box”, “general store” or “media phenomenon”. On the other hand, the Thuringian Union leader Mario Voigt told the star already in June that he perceived the regional BSW top candidate Katja Wolf “as a pragmatic local politician”: “I hear more sensible things from her and from the Thuringian BSW than from the Left and the Greens, especially in migration and education policy.”
Otherwise, the CDU tries to talk as little as possible about the BSW. When Voigt officially kicks off the election campaign this Thursday evening in Meerane, Saxony, together with Merz and Saxony’s CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, no one is likely to talk about potential coalitions. Instead, the mantra that has been heard so far will be the same: the Union must become as strong as possible.
But the questions remain. What happens, for example, if the BSW becomes stronger than the CDU, at least in Thuringia?
Wagenknecht has already given a clear answer. Of course, she told the “Magdeburger Volksstimme”, Wolf will then claim the government presidency. At the same time, she made a direct connection to Saxony, where Kretschmer could possibly be dependent on votes from the BSW.
“If the CDU wants us to elect their prime minister in one state, they cannot refuse to support us in another if we are ahead of them,” said the BSW boss. After all, there are “rules in a democracy.”
And so the CDU is once again caught in a trap. Voigt reacted accordingly angrily to Wagenknecht. “We Thuringians don’t think much of these backroom deals,” he said. “We make our own decisions and no one else does.”
Wagenknecht’s real goal is the federal election
Wagenknecht’s announcements are not only aimed at putting the CDU on the defensive. They are also intended to raise the price of a coalition of the BSW. The party leader’s real goal is the federal election in September 2025 – and participation in government in the states poses a risk. The coalition compromises required in Erfurt or Dresden would automatically come into conflict with Wagenknecht’s fundamentally oppositional course in Berlin. The image of the BSW would be damaged.
In the end, however, the new party will hardly be able to refuse responsibility, especially since Wolf is actually known as a realist politician. The scenario currently being debated in Erfurt is therefore as follows: If in doubt, Wolf would give up the state chancellery even as a representative of the strongest government party. The condition: Voigt would not be allowed to become prime minister either.
Instead, an independent candidate would have to run.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
