Joe Biden: Is he about to withdraw from the presidential race?

Joe Biden has been old for a long time. The Democratic veteran, who has been part of the Washington power elite for more than half a century, has long had a patina. But since the disastrous TV debate against his theoretically similarly aged challenger Donald Trump, the US president seems like the oldest person on the planet.

And then there’s Butler. Trump not only survived an assassination attempt in the small town in Pennsylvania in front of the eyes of the entire nation, but also portrayed himself as a hero on the spot. A masterpiece of PR.

The Democrats were already in panic mode because of their apparently dodgy candidate. What will happen now with good old Joe? Will he see reason?

How much has the TV debacle hurt Biden so far?

The last time the TV duel between Biden and the English national football team was worse to watch was during a European Championship match. Against Biden, who was at best stuttering and at worst completely lost, Trump looked like a squeaky-cheeked Boy Scout on Ritalin withdrawal. The national and international media response was accordingly devastating. The bare numbers also spoke volumes. According to a joint study by the University of Washington and Siena College, Biden subsequently lost three percent of his registered voters to Trump – the gap between the two candidates has never been so wide.

At first, the Democrats tried to limit the damage and demonstratively stood behind their candidate. The reflex harmony did not last long. Just a few days after the fiasco, the first backbenchers, whom Biden could still call “bedwetters”, began to have doubts. In the meantime, however, Democratic heavyweights such as the former Speaker of the House Nancy and allegedly also predecessor Barack Obama have advised their once close confidant Joe to resign.

A detailed list of apostates You will find here:

However, reaching into one’s wallet would be at least as dangerous as a knife in the back. The first major donors threatened to stop payments after the TV debacle. Influential patrons such as Netflix founder Reed Hastings publicly called on Biden to resign even before the Trump assassination attempt. Disney heiress Abigail E. Disney assured in an email that the Democrats “will not receive another cent from me until they bite the bullet.” The most expensive phase of the election campaign is still to come.

Did the Trump assassination decide the election?

That’s difficult to say. One thing is certain: Donald Trump took perfect advantage of the situation. Iconic photos on the spot, Christian-conciliatory words shortly afterwards, then the apotheosis at the party convention in Milwaukee. History shows that candidates who survived an assassination attempt were able to take a massive popularity bonus with them to the ballot box. And if anyone knows how to ride a wave, it’s the Republican luminary. Against the fearless resistance fighter that Trump is now selling himself as better than ever, Biden’s chances are falling further.

Who else influences Biden?

Biden has so far seemed convinced that he is the only one who can prevent the Trumpocalypse. “Only God Almighty” could persuade him to step down. Or maybe his wife? In fact, Jill Biden is likely to have the greatest influence on the ailing incumbent. Aside from the family, former chief of staff Ron Klain, lawyer Mike Donilon and his long-time advisor Ted Kaufmann also belong to the club of presidential whisperers. The “kitchen cabinet” is the inner circle.

Find out who Biden is listening to now in our detailed Photo gallery:

Could Joe Biden be forced to resign?

Theoretically yes, practically no. The simplest thing would be for Biden to step aside of his own accord. Biden would not be able to choose his successor directly. Instead, he would have to release the almost 3,900 votes collected by the delegates, who could then rally behind any new candidate. This procedure is called an “open convention” – an absolute rarity in recent US political history, the last one being in 1968. If Biden refuses to voluntarily give up the reins despite the party’s mutiny, no one could take it away from him without causing significant damage to his successor.

The delegates who have already voted for Biden are actually required to keep their word. However, they are only bound by their conscience. If they come to the conclusion that Biden is no longer the best candidate in the eyes of their voters, they could abandon him in the final stretch. However, it is extremely unlikely that the necessary majority will be found for this. Quite apart from the real-political consequences: the Democrats would tear each other apart in intra-party trench warfare. That would not only cost nerves, but above all time – and that is now becoming the most important campaign resource.

By when would the change have to be completed?

The Democratic presidential candidate will not be officially announced until the party convention in Chicago in mid-August, but will be announced virtually in advance. If the current president really does not drop the bombshell until then, he would rob a new candidate of valuable weeks. The task of getting the party base behind him, winning back disgruntled voters and, above all, winning over undecided voters is difficult enough without a ticking clock.

If Biden throws in the towel after his official appointment, that would still not be a free pass for Trump. If an elected candidate or his vice-president drops out (or dies), the Democratic National Committee can appoint a new candidate in consultation with the congressional leadership and the governors’ association.

Why is Kamala Harris the logical alternative?

As things stand, anyone would be better than Joe Biden. Really anyone. Only one in four voters believes that the incumbent president would also be the most suitable next president. 75 percent are in favor of the Democrats anyone others set up.

Who could this Mr. or Mrs. Somebody be? There are a few names in the room: Governors like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or JB Pritzker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or even former First Lady Michelle Obama (A closer look at the potential successors can be found here). There are good reasons why they don’t get involved – too unknown, too “sleazy” or simply no interest.

That leaves Kamala Harris. A lot of expectations were placed on the first female vice president in US history – of which she has only fulfilled a few so far. The 59-year-old is also said to have professional deficits. And whether she, as a black woman, can convince the decisive swing voters is at least questionable. Nevertheless, she would be the most obvious Biden heir. Not only because she is currently only slightly behind Trump. Harris would also be the logical alternative from a purely pragmatic point of view. It would be easier for Biden to refer “his” delegates to his number two, which would save the Democrats a paralyzing power struggle. Harris could also draw on Biden’s ample campaign funds – which would be much more complicated with other candidates.

When will Biden make a decision?

According to US media reports, the time could soon come. As the magazine “The Hill” writes, citing party insiders, Biden will make a final decision in the coming days.

Editor’s note: This article originally appeared on July 5 and has been updated accordingly.

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