US election campaign: Kamala Harris against Donald Trump – Does she have a chance?

It’s not good news for Donald Trump. Everything was going so well for the Republican in the election campaign. After the assassination attempt on him, the presidential candidate portrayed himself as a hero who could not be stopped by a bullet – against a competitor who had problems finding the door or putting on a jacket. Trump hardly had to do anything and only watched as Joe Biden disintegrated. But now Biden is no longer there as an election opponent. And the woman Trump will probably have to deal with is making his life more difficult: Kamala Harris.

Biden’s vice president still has to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. But everything is pointing towards the former senator from California. Biden nominated her, Harris wants the job, and the party is rallying behind her at a rapid pace. This is giving the Democrats new momentum after long and agonizing debates about Biden’s condition. There is a sense of optimism among them – and a little hope that perhaps all is not lost after all. What does the spectacular turnaround mean for the rest of the race for the White House?

The contrast between Harris and Trump

The differences between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could hardly be greater. She is a woman, he is a man, she is black, he is white. Harris is 59, Trump is 78 – and suddenly he looks old in a competition with an opponent who is almost two decades younger. She, the former prosecutor, against him, the convicted criminal. This is what Harris is likely to exploit offensively in the election campaign – especially since, unlike Biden with his son Hunter, she herself does not carry legal baggage in her own family.

Harris can probably score more points with certain groups of voters than Trump, but also than Biden: especially with black voters, but probably also with younger people and women. Trump now has to completely rethink, set up his campaign differently and develop a new strategy. The Republican even complains about this publicly and rants on his online platform Truth Social: “Now we have to start from scratch.” The Republican Party should be compensated for its previous campaign spending, which was entirely focused on Biden, he rages.

Harris’ biggest attack surface

Trump’s team immediately began attacking Harris. Within a very short time, the Trump team released its first campaign ad aimed against her. The narrative in it was that Harris had been pulling the strings in the background for a long time because Biden was simply no longer able to do so. She was responsible for the government’s failures – including the crisis on the border with Mexico.

The issue of migration is likely to be Trump’s main point of attack. It was his flagship issue in the 2020 election campaign and it is also the case this election year: Trump rants at every rally that the country is being overrun by hordes of dangerous and criminal migrants. From now on, he will hold Harris personally responsible for this.

Biden gave Harris, as vice president, the impossible task of “combating the causes of flight.” After three and a half years, she has not achieved much in this regard. Migration remains a problem. The number of people crossing the border illegally into the USA has recently fallen – but from a record level.

Other weaknesses of the Democrat

Things haven’t gone well for Harris as Biden’s vice president in recent years. The office is generally a thankless one: the deputy’s job is to promote and represent the president’s policies, while at the same time setting their own priorities without stealing the show from their boss. Harris remained invisible for long stretches, instead making headlines with her own mistakes and struggling with poor popularity ratings. Only recently did she gain some profile on the issue of abortion.

Harris used to present herself as tough as a prosecutor and confident as a senator. As vice president, however, she often seemed insecure and inauthentic. Perhaps she is more suited to the lead role as a presidential candidate when she no longer has to act in the shadow of a boss.

Her strengths

Through her three and a half years as Vice President, Harris knows the White House and the government apparatus, and is well known both nationally and internationally. She is also well connected within the party. She will most likely be able to access the structures and money of the previous Biden-Harris election campaign. And as the first woman and first black person to hold the office of Vice President, she has pioneer status. She would also have that status if she actually made it to the White House as the first female president. But there is still a long way to go.

As a woman, she can approach some issues – such as the debate over abortion, which is important in the election campaign and affects many Americans – very differently than Biden could. And as a former prosecutor, she can not only take on Trump for his criminal activities, but also possibly appeal to centrist voters with law-and-order messages.

Harris’ biggest advantage in the election campaign is that she is neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump. Many people in the country were not enthusiastic about a new race between the two from the start; they simply did not want one of these two old white men. Now they will probably have a maximum contrast to choose from: not only in terms of content, but also in terms of the two people who stand for this content.

Harris’ chances of winning

Kamala Harris is not the ideal candidate. She is more of a stopgap solution who slipped into this role for pragmatic reasons. The question also arises as to whether the USA is ready for a woman in the highest office. But at least her poll ratings against Trump are slightly better than those of Biden. That gives Democrats hope.

But the party is also concerned about something else in the change. In the election on November 5th, not only will the top seat in the White House be reassigned, but all seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the seats in the Senate will also be redistributed. With Biden as their front man, Democrats have recently been in sheer panic that they will no longer have a say in either chamber. With Harris at the helm, they are also concerned about preventing the worst from happening, so that Trump cannot rule in the event of an election victory.