Russian guerrilla tactics – evade, sneak in and strike

In the east of Ukraine, the front is slipping. Kiev is losing settlement after settlement. The reason for this is the lack of personnel in Ukraine, which can no longer reinforce attacked sectors, the omnipresent bombings, but also a new attack tactic by the Russians.

All of this leads to entire settlements being lost in one fell swoop. The biggest crises occur during trench warfare in the Donbass when the Russians manage to get behind the Ukrainian positions. The defenders then have to abandon their fortifications and retreat. And all this under the noses of the Russians. They achieved spectacular successes when their troops used old pipe systems to get past the defenders. In other places, mining tunnels were dug underground.

Infiltrating like guerillas

The Russians are said to have refined this tactic on a smaller scale in the last week. They are deploying small infiltration groups. These special forces consist of just a few men each, whose job it is to sneak unnoticed, man by man, into the settlements held by the Ukrainian defenders. And then establish themselves like guerrillas behind the Ukrainians.

These frontline villages are not protected by a seamless trench system, in which hundreds of soldiers are crowded. The ruined villages are largely empty and are only occupied by a few soldiers who hide in cellars and shelters because of the drone threat.

The scouts try to infiltrate unnoticed. Once they reach their destination, they hide until the Russians launch their assault. At this moment, the seemingly deserted villages come to life. The Ukrainians come out of their hiding places and take up the fight. But all of this is now under the watchful eyes of the Russian scouts, who direct artillery and drones or attack the Ukrainians from behind at the decisive moment.

If the Ukrainians have to abandon their positions, they can only take up new positions behind the infiltrated Russians, which will shift the contact line significantly and not just by a few rows of houses.

Most massive attack in weeks

The attack on Kostiantynivka on July 26th shows another modification of the Russian approach. At the beginning of the invasion, the Russians attacked with large columns of armored vehicles, which then got stuck in minefields and were shot down by drones and artillery. Then the attack groups became smaller and smaller, consisting of five or six transports and a battle tank for protection. The aim was to penetrate a settlement as quickly and unnoticed as possible. This was often successful, but just as often the small column suffered massive losses.

The small town of Kostiantynivka is insignificant in itself, but occupies an important position in the Ukrainian defense system. According to Ukrainian sources, 57 armored vehicles, including eleven main battle tanks and a heavy Terminator support tank, were used for this attack, as well as a dozen motorcycles and 200 assault troops.

Although the Ukrainians of the 79th Brigade successfully fought the attacking group with drones, the assault troops established themselves at the target. The defenders were able to repel about a quarter of the Russian vehicles, but not the rest. The Ukrainians say that 40 Russian men were lost.

What does this tactic mean? The short time and the size of the group overwhelmed the Ukrainian defense. They could have stopped a small group of four to six vehicles, but no more. Once such an assault group has penetrated, it is usually impossible to expel it again. Even before the assault, the Russians had attacked the town with glide bombs. Before the attack, the 79th wrote on Telegram that they had dozens of dead and buried people and numerous wounded (300s). “A difficult time is beginning for our brigade.”

Unfavourable course of the war

Both the use of combat scouts and the group attack of 57 vehicles show the unfavorable course of the war. The infiltrating fighters are highly motivated, well-trained, experienced soldiers. Fresh recruits could not carry out such a mission. Apparently the Kremlin still has such elite fighters in the war year of 2024. The Ukrainians also had such special forces at the beginning of the war, and they put the inexperienced Russians under massive pressure.

The AFP agency and the Belgian public broadcaster RTBF met Vassilina Nakonetchna, an officer in the 49th Brigade, at a Ukrainian training ground for recruits. She was looking for suitable recruits among the unenthusiastic conscripts. She tells the TV team that her unit consisted only of volunteers at the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. Today, “they are all dead or injured.”

And the assault by the Russian unit does not bode well either. Despite all the reports that the Russians are running out of vehicles, they can afford such attacks. The comparison with the Ukrainian summer offensive in 2023 is frightening. That began slowly and with heavy losses. The Ukrainians fought their way forward with great sacrifices, ever more slowly, until their strength finally waned in August. The Russian offensive operations in 2024 also began slowly and slowly, but so far they have not waned. The advance is gaining momentum. At the end of July, the Russians are not running out of strength; it looks more like Ukraine’s options are being exhausted.

Russians have more of everything

The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, gave an interview to the British newspaper “Guardian”. Under the optimistic title “I know we will win – and how,” he paints a gloomy picture. He said the Russians have more of everything: tanks, armored personnel carriers, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has now grown to 520,000, said Syrskyi, and the Kremlin’s goal is to have a total of 690,000 men in Ukraine by the end of 2024. “In terms of equipment, the ratio is 1:2 or 1:3 in their favor.” Despite the losses, the number of Russian battle tanks has not decreased since 2022, it has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and the number of armored personnel carriers has increased from 4,500 to 8,900.

Syrskyi’s hope is that Russian losses are three times higher than those of Ukraine. There is no evidence for this. The Russian superiority is to be compensated for by better quality weapons and soldiers. The report by RTBF and AFP on the training of new recruits offers no reason to believe this. It is clear how shocked the journalists are at the low motivation of the forcibly recruited, some of whom were caught on their way to work. Regarding the recruits of the 49th assault battalion, he says briefly: “Nobody wanted to be here.”

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