In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a major, open war. Now, almost 20 years later, the consequences for both sides would be even more dramatic. In Lebanon, the anxious wait begins.
Perhaps this was the mistake that had been feared for months. The rocket attack on the Golan, which killed twelve children and young people, could have been the event that triggered a new, open war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. US diplomats are hastily trying to stabilize the situation somewhat. In Lebanon, the waiting has begun again – for Israel’s counterattack, possibly in the area around the capital Beirut, and the waiting to see how Hezbollah will react afterwards.
It is certain that Israel will hit back hard after the most serious attack since the fighting with Hezbollah began on October 8 last year. At the same time, both sides are clearly not interested in escalating the fierce fighting that has been going on for almost ten months. On the Lebanese side, more than 100 civilians and 360 Hezbollah members were killed, while on the Israeli side, around 20 soldiers and more than 20 civilians were killed. 150,000 people on both sides of the border have already had to leave their homes.
USA in “ongoing discussions”
The balancing act now is to keep the retaliatory strike approved by the Israeli security cabinet below the threshold of a real, major war. Washington is trying to calm things down behind the scenes. A spokeswoman for the US National Security Council says they are in “ongoing discussions” with the Israeli and Lebanese sides. She attributes the attack on the Golan to Hezbollah. “It was their rocket, fired from an area under their control.” The militia has denied any responsibility.
There are increasing signs that Hezbollah may have accidentally hit the Druze town of Majdal Shams. “The assumption of a misdirected rocket is much more credible than that Hezbollah decided to attack a football field,” said Eli Hanna, a Lebanese ex-general, to the newspaper “L’Orient-Le Jour”. This is also supported by the fact that the militia claimed responsibility for several other attacks on Israeli military targets nearby on the same day. The Druze in the Israeli-annexed Golan, many of whom feel closer to Syria than Israel, would also be an unusual target for the militia.
Calls for a “limited but significant” attack
The Druze minority, which mourns the loss of twelve children and young people aged between 10 and 16, is deeply upset and is demanding a tough counterattack. Israeli representatives told the newspaper “Yediot Achronot” that they expected a “limited but significant” reaction from Israel. This could include an attack on infrastructure in Lebanon, an important Hezbollah weapons depot, an “iconic site that has not been attacked so far” or the killing of high-ranking Hezbollah representatives.
A commentator in the Israel Hayom newspaper wrote that the dilemma for Israel’s army is how to achieve the desired effect without creating a dangerous dynamic in which the situation escalates into a full-scale war. Such a development could lead to a new conflict with Iran and its allies in the region, he explained, including militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This could in turn have a negative impact on Israel’s goals in the Gaza war and efforts to free the more than 100 hostages in the Gaza Strip. It is feared that many may already be dead. The already faltering talks on a hostage deal could collapse completely if a new war with Hezbollah breaks out.
Attack with clear choreography?
Perhaps the reaction could be similar to that in April, when Iran – the main ally of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – attacked its declared arch-enemy Israel directly for the first time with drones and missiles. This attack, following a suspected Israeli attack on an Iranian consular building in Syria, was large and symbolic enough for its own audience. At the same time, it followed a clear and predictable choreography, which prevented a real conflagration in the region.
Israel and Hezbollah fought their last war in 2006. Israel’s army bombed Beirut airport and destroyed large parts of the coastal city and the south. Now, around 20 years later, a war would have even more dramatic consequences for both sides. Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets, drones and cruise missiles – around ten times its arsenal compared to 2006. “Every city and village in Israel is in danger,” writes the US think tank Brookings. The militia could also seriously damage Israel’s power grid.
Israel can take some time to react
If the situation is expanded, Iran’s other allies are also likely to step up their attacks on Israel, including the Houthi militia in Yemen, whose drone attack in Tel Aviv recently claimed the first Israeli casualty. Israel responded in Yemen with direct attacks for the first time. The rhetoric with Ankara is also becoming sharper after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened that Turkey would “go in” on Israel as it did in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya. However, it is generally doubted that Turkey is actually considering military action against Israel.
Former Israeli military intelligence chief Tamir Hayman wrote that Hezbollah had made a serious mistake with the attack on the Golan. “Harming children, especially Druze on the Golan Heights, puts them in a negative light in Lebanon,” explained the head of the INSS think tank. “This is in addition to the anger of many Lebanese that the country is sliding into a war against Israel that is completely unnecessary for them.” Against this background, Israel can afford to wait a little before reacting. “Time is on our side. It is better to let Hezbollah stew in its own juice.”
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
