Deployment of US weapons: More deterrence against Russia: Return of the arms race?

With the approval of the German government, the USA wants to station land-based cruise missiles and longer-range rockets in Germany for the first time in decades. Can the plan provide an effective deterrent against Russia? Almost a month after the announcement, experts report on the details and background. An overview in questions and answers:

What is it about?

In just three sentences, the governments of the USA and Germany declared on July 10 on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington that long-range US weapons systems will be stationed in Germany from 2026. “When fully developed, these conventional units will include SM-6, Tomahawks and hypersonic weapons currently under development and will have a significantly greater range than the current land-based systems in Europe,” it said.

The USA spoke of a contribution to European deterrence and proof of the USA’s support for NATO. There were no details at the time.

What kind of weapons are supposed to come to Germany?

The Tomahawks are cruise missiles that can hit targets in Russia with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers. According to experts, they carry a 450-kilogram conventional warhead and hit with an accuracy of about ten meters.

The SM-6 are multi-purpose missiles. The guided missiles can defend against other missiles, but can also be used against ships and, in a modified version, against ground targets. In an emergency, both missiles are to be fired in Germany by a new mobile system called Typhon.

What about the newly developed hypersonic missiles?

According to the German military expert and retired Brigadier General Heinrich Fischer, the new US hypersonic weapon (“Long Range Hypersonic Weapon”) is in the final phase of its development. It flies at five times the speed of sound and has a range of more than 2,500 kilometers, he writes in the specialist magazine “European Security & Technology” (August issue).

When were there last medium-range missiles in Germany?

That was during the Cold War. In 1979, NATO responded to the threat posed by Soviet SS20 medium-range missiles with the so-called Double Decision, which provided for the stationing of US Pershing II medium-range nuclear missiles and cruise missiles in Europe – but at the same time also for the start of disarmament negotiations with the Soviet Union. The latter ended in the so-called INF Treaty.

What did the INF Treaty regulate?

The treaty concluded in 1987 between the USA and the Soviet Union called for the elimination of all land-based ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with a shorter range of 500 to 1,000 kilometers and with a medium range of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers. The agreement was then dissolved by the USA in 2019.

Washington justified the move by saying that Russia had developed a new land-based medium-range cruise missile system and was equipping its armed forces with it. The missiles are called 9M729 (NATO code: SSC-8) and, according to US intelligence information, are capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear warheads to their targets.

Is the stationing of US weapons in Germany a reaction to 9M729?

At least in part. Other reasons given include the stationing of Iskander missiles with nuclear warheads in the Kaliningrad exclave and the relocation of Russian fighter jets with Kinzhal air-to-ground hypersonic missiles there.

According to information from the German Ministry of Defense, the US weapons are intended to protect Germany primarily through deterrence. The aim is to make it clear to a potential attacker that an attack would do them more harm than good, says political director Jasper Wieck in a YouTube video on the subject. In an emergency, the weapons could be used to neutralize missile launch pads deep in Russian territory.

Are there nuclear warheads for the Tomahawk?

Nuclear weapons expert Hans Kristensen from the Federation of American Scientists answers this question with a clear no. “The version that was previously capable of nuclear warheads (Block II, TLAM-N) has been decommissioned and is no longer in the arsenal,” he explains. The W80-0 nuclear warheads were decommissioned in 2010 and destroyed in 2012.

Kristensen also stressed that there are no plans to develop nuclear warheads for the weapons now headed for Germany. However, the West has apparently decided that it needs more conventional medium- and long-range firepower to counter a possible Russian attack on NATO.

Is a new arms race and a new Cold War beginning?

From the point of view of nuclear weapons expert Kristensen, it is difficult to compare today’s times with the Cold War. At the same time, he states that there is no doubt that the announced stationing of long-range missile weapons in Europe represents a significant step in the deepening military competition between Russia and NATO.

“With the abolition of the INF Treaty, both sides are free to station whatever they want, and the only question is how strong the action-reaction dynamic will be,” he told the German Press Agency. With Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and the increasing military buildup and sabre-rattling on both sides, the course has been set for ever deeper military competition.

How many Tomahawks will be deployed to Germany and where to?

The Bundeswehr’s brief comment on the subject is that a lot of planning and organization still needs to be done by 2026. That is why it is not yet possible to say how many Tomahawks will be stationed where in Germany.

Will long-range US weapons also be stationed in other European countries?

There have been no announcements about this so far. The reason could be that stationing further east would represent an additional provocation for Russia. The Bundeswehr explains on the subject: “Germany is particularly well suited for stationing because it is centrally located in Western Europe.”

What makes nuclear weapons expert Kristensen sit up and take notice is the fact that the rearmament in Germany was not announced by NATO, but bilaterally. This suggests that it was difficult to reach a NATO consensus on the stationing, he says.

Does the Bundestag in Germany have to be involved in the stationing?

The planned stationing has met with reservations in parts of the German Chancellor’s party, the SPD. For example, parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich warned of the risk of military escalation. In contrast, SPD Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stressed the importance of a credible deterrent for the country’s own security. And: The Bundestag can debate the issue, but it does not have to be consulted before the government makes a decision.

What happens next?

For Kristensen, the prognosis is pretty clear: “The US is reacting to Russian INF-range missiles and Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Russia will likely react to the US decision,” he says. “That’s the dynamic that is now in full swing and is expected to continue as the political and military competition between the two sides deepens.”