Blow against Iran’s “axis”: Attacks in Tehran and Beirut: Danger of a major war

The Gaza war has been raging for almost ten months with no prospect of relief – with the killing of one of the key figures of the Islamist Hamas, the conflict is now taking another dramatic turn. According to the terrorist organization, Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniya was killed in an Israeli attack while he was visiting the Iranian capital Tehran. Just hours earlier, Israel’s army also said it had killed Hezbollah’s highest-ranking military commander in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr. Two of the most influential men in their fight against Israel are therefore dead.

Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian Hamas are important allies, both supported by Iran. They are part of Tehran’s self-proclaimed “axis of resistance” in the fight against Israel. This is why the danger of an even larger regional war is now increasing after the attacks in Beirut and Tehran. As part of the “axis”, the militias in Yemen, Iraq and Syria could also take part. A coordinated attack by these camps could also overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses.

Iran sees retaliation as its duty

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, immediately announced revenge for Haniya’s death. Tehran considers retaliation for the act “our duty,” Khamenei was quoted as saying on his official website. Especially since Haniya was “a valued guest in our house.”

Khamenei had met with Haniya on Tuesday, who had traveled there for the swearing-in ceremony of the new president Massoud Peseschkian. The Hamas leader, against whom the chief prosecutor had requested an arrest warrant at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, must have felt very protected. But at 2:00 a.m. local time (0:30 a.m. CEST), Haniya was fatally hit “by an object from the air” in an alleged “safe house” in northern Tehran, according to Iranian sources. The exact circumstances of his death are still unclear.

Regional war? Attack on Tel Aviv conceivable

Will Iran become even more involved in a regional conflict after this provocation? The deadly attack on its state guest is definitely a serious humiliation. However, the incident came at a bad time for Iran. Peseschkian was sworn in on Tuesday, representatives from over 80 countries had traveled there and Tehran wanted to show its best side. But everything turned out differently.

In addition, Iran is in the worst economic crisis in its history. This is why Peseschkian is actually planning better relations with the West. Starting a military conflict with Israel at this critical stage would be a disaster for Peseschkian both economically and politically – and could lead to a financial collapse in the country. In any case, these are remarkable first days in office for Peseschkian.

For Hezbollah, an attack on Tel Aviv is conceivable. Its leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened this several times in the event of an attack like the one on Beirut. At the same time, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed the death of its commander Fuad Shukr, just as Israel has not yet commented on the killing of Haniya. Perhaps both sides want to give the enemy some room to maneuver.

What is Israel’s aim?

Israel has repeatedly accused Iran of only using its accomplices in the region in the fight against the Jewish state and hardly having to pay any price for it. The Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, is repeatedly accused by critics in its own country of primarily reacting to attacks by the “Axis of Resistance” and rarely taking the initiative itself.

The attacks in Beirut and Tehran are seen as an attempt by Israel to go on the offensive and shift the war into enemy territory. Israel is also apparently trying to restore its deterrence capability, which has been considered massively damaged since the devastating surprise attack by Hamas on the Israeli border region on October 7 last year.

Hope for a quick ceasefire in Gaza is receding

The deadly strikes in Beirut and Tehran demonstrate Israel’s extensive intelligence and military capabilities. They can be seen as a message to Iran and its allies that no one is safe. After October 7, Israel announced that it would eliminate the entire Hamas leadership. If the death of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif turns out to be true, Jihia al-Sinwar would be the last living senior leader of Hamas, which violently seized sole power in the Gaza Strip in 2007. It is suspected that he has been hiding in the tunnel network under the coastal strip since the beginning of the war.

Hamas leader Haniya was considered an important contact in the indirect negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza war and a release of the more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. A commentator in the newspaper “Haaretz” wrote that Haniya’s death would have a negative impact on the talks, which had already stalled after Netanyahu hardened his positions.

Regional war could drag the US in just before fateful election

A regional war could force Israel’s most important ally, the USA, to become even more involved in a conflict with an uncertain outcome shortly before the US election. In such a scenario, Israel may hope to significantly weaken its enemies throughout the region with the help of its strong ally. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed that the USA had nothing to do with the attack on Haniya and had not been informed beforehand.

Shortly before the incidents in Beirut and Tehran, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin answered a journalist’s question as to whether Israel could count on American help in the event of a large-scale war with Hezbollah by saying that they would support their partner in the event of an attack. “If Israel is attacked, yes, we will help Israel to defend itself,” said Austin. However, they are striving for a diplomatic solution.

With air strikes in Yemen, Iraq and Syria, the USA has been trying for months to prevent new attacks on its bases without becoming completely involved in a new war. US President Joe Biden, meanwhile, already seems to be half out of office, and his successors are still warming up in the election campaign.

Because there is no clear leadership, the Middle East is caught in a dangerous limbo, wrote the magazine “Foreign Affairs” in March about the situation in the region. “Nobody is in charge.” The two camps are thus constantly escalating each other.