Russian-Ukrainian war: Ukraine puts pressure on Russia with massive attacks

In its war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia has had to endure the heaviest counterattacks to date from Kiev on its own territory. It is not only in the Kursk region that a state of emergency prevails amid ongoing fighting between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. There are many deaths. Ukraine is also targeting Russia with drone attacks: authorities report explosions, destruction and many injuries. Ukraine, which was recently on the defensive in its own country, now wants to take the war to Russia and thus get into a better position for possible negotiations. Questions and answers on the situation and the prospects:

What is Ukraine’s aim with its attacks on Russia?

“Ukraine is interested in seizing the initiative through the element of surprise and dominating the information space. Ukraine has achieved these tactical goals,” military expert Nico Lange told the German Press Agency. It is currently unclear whether further operational goals can be achieved in the Kursk region. “Ukraine has also achieved that Russian units have to move towards Kursk and are very vulnerable on the march,” said Lange, who works for the Munich Security Conference and was previously chief of staff in the German Defense Ministry. Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russian units in ambushes along the way.

The aim could be to create a protection zone near the border in order to minimize shelling of the Russian enemy’s own territory, as Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, who is close to the president, suggests on Facebook. In military terms, Ukraine could also tie down Russian forces and relieve pressure on other front lines, such as at Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region or on the front line under pressure near Donetsk.

But according to Fessenko, it is also about proving something to the allies: “The Ukrainian advance on the Kursk region is also a demonstration to the Americans that there is no need to fear attacks on Russian territory.” They could therefore also give permission for the use of their weapons on Russian soil.

What are the chances of success of the advance in Kursk?

Experts from the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) write that Ukrainian soldiers have advanced up to 35 kilometers beyond their own borders, but without having the entire area under control. According to other military experts, the Ukrainian troops will hardly be able to establish themselves permanently in a larger area due to the limited force deployment of a few hundred men with light armored vehicles.

Even discussed advances towards the Kursk nuclear power plant near Kurchatov, just sixty kilometers from the border, are therefore unlikely, given that supplies are constantly threatened by Russian air and artillery attacks. In addition, the Ukrainian army urgently needs combat-ready, motivated soldiers, tank technology and artillery on other fronts, as many observers, especially Ukrainian ones, have critically noted.

The future career of Army Commander-in-Chief Olexander Syrskyj is also tied to the success of the operation, the full extent of which will only become clear in the next few days, according to military journalist Mykhailo Shyrokhov in Kiev. Syrskyj only took over command in February and has recently come under increasing criticism due to the constant loss of territory in eastern Ukraine.

How does the West react?

In May, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and US President Joe Biden changed course in Ukraine policy and allowed the use of delivered weapons against targets in Russia. However, the federal government had not yet assessed the Ukrainian advance by Friday afternoon. The chairman of the Bundestag’s Defense Committee, Marcus Faber (FDP), saw no problem in the event of German weapons being used. “With the handover to Ukraine, they are Ukrainian weapons. That applies to all material – including the Leopard 2,” he told the Funke Media Group. With the Russian attack on Ukraine, the territory of both states is a war zone, and the use of the weapons is subject to the provisions of international law. Accordingly, Ukraine also has the right to attack the aggressor’s territory in its defensive struggle.

What does the counterattack mean for Western support?

It seems unlikely that the cross-border operation could turn the tide. And yet it ties up Russian forces and may also distract attention from other theaters. For Ukraine, it is a partial success with an uncertain outcome, and for the leadership in Moscow it is certainly a humiliation. The West has always emphasized that it supports Ukraine in its decisions in its defensive struggle against the war of aggression.

How does Russia react?

In view of the Ukrainian drone and missile attacks, the Russian air defense system is now in constant use, including on the annexed Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. Due to the heavy fighting in the Kursk region, the Defense Ministry is now massively increasing its troops there. The state of emergency has been upgraded to an emergency of national proportions.

At the same time, air strikes are being carried out against the neighboring region of Sumy, which Ukraine is using as a staging area for its advance. In addition to fighting attacks from the neighboring country, Moscow is also continuing its attacks in the annexed regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk. The Defense Ministry in Moscow is reporting further combat successes there.

What does this move mean for Russia’s war of aggression?

Russia feels more pressure to act than ever before. Russian President Vladimir Putin started the war against Ukraine with the argument that he was fighting for the security and stability of his country because Moscow sees itself threatened by Kyiv’s planned accession to NATO.

Once again, the war is hitting the border regions in particular. Many people there have lost everything they own and are horrified and disillusioned, as even officials admit. People are once again having to watch as Putin’s war threatens their lives and the nuclear power is vulnerable despite the Kremlin’s assurances.

Observers in Russia assume that the new problems may mobilize even more volunteers for front-line deployment. The regions and Putin had already recently significantly increased the cash bonuses for signing contracts for military deployment.

What does the situation mean for possible peace negotiations?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the country was seeking negotiations for a just peace. His office adviser Mykhailo Podoliak said that successes in Kursk could strengthen the negotiating position. Moscow would only be more willing to talk if the price of the war was raised above “the loss of people, military equipment and territories of the Russian Federation,” he said on Ukrainian television.

From Russia’s point of view, the negotiations are moving even further away. The country is preparing for a very long conflict. The deputy head of the National Security Council, former President Dmitry Medvedev, said that Ukraine must now prepare for even more territorial losses – he mentioned the regions of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa and also Kyiv.