Kursk and Donbass – the risky poker game of Putin and Selenskyj

analysis

The world is watching Ukraine’s successful offensive in the Kursk area, but parallel to the Ukrainian attacks, the battle in Donbass is raging. There, Putin’s troops are advancing in several wedges towards the city of Prokrovsk. Although geographically separate, both operations are connected. Their outcome will have a decisive influence on the further course of the war.

The Donbass is defended at Kursk

At first glance, it is difficult to identify an operational goal of the Kursk offensive. A lot was achieved: the Russian military was humiliated, Putin was unable to protect its own territory, Kiev demonstrated its military capability after a series of defeats, and around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory were occupied. Further options in the region are limited. It is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to take the city of Kursk with over 450,000 inhabitants. Ukraine’s strategic goal in the Kursk area lies elsewhere, in the Donbass. The calculation is: Kiev must be so successful at Kursk that Putin cannot stop the Ukrainians with reserve troops alone. He must be forced to move forces intended for the Donbass to the north, so that his own advance in the east collapses. If this succeeds, the Ukrainians, with their mobile and rapid operations in the north, will have found a means of countering the slow but systematic war of attrition in the east.

But in order for the Russians to be forced to do so, the pressure in the north must not decrease, it must continue to increase. The front at Kursk must remain mobile, the Russians must not succeed in sealing off the breakthrough. Kiev must continue to attack there or in other areas. And this is happening. At present, the Ukrainians are not in a position to advance ever deeper into Russian territory. Their tactic of operating with small, very mobile groups that bypass the Russian blocking positions is also reaching its limits. The Russians cannot build a continuous front, but they have also brought commandos into the region who lie in wait for the Ukrainians and attack their convoys. But even if they are currently unable to advance directly towards Kursk, the Ukrainian armed forces are expanding their breakthrough to the west and east. After securing the small town of Sudzha on both flanks, they have probably driven the Russians out of their last strongholds in the eastern part of the city and will continue to advance there. In the west of the Kursk front they are trying to drive the Russians out of the small town of Snagost.

Offensive at Kursk continues

The Kursk offensive is continuing, albeit more slowly than in the first few days. But there is one thing the Ukrainians have not managed to do so far: stop the Russian offensive in the Donbass. There are no quick maneuvers there, but the Russians are continuing to advance in the tough positional battles.

The Russians are advancing from the area around Ivanivka and Vesele and are taking over smaller towns day by day. They are encircling the town of Hrodivka from several sides. It is still 15 kilometers to the center of Prokrovsk, but the outskirts of the settlements around the town are much closer. Prokrovsk is currently being evacuated; before the war, around 85,000 people lived there.

Aim of the Donbass offensive

Despite its small size, Prokrovsk is a target of strategic importance. The last line of defense in the east is a chain of fortified towns, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. This barrier is protected to the south by Prokrovsk. If the town falls, the Russians can get into the area behind the chain of fortifications. This will certainly not happen in a quick operation, but in principle the Russians would then have a lever to undermine the Ukrainian defense in the Donbass. But if their offensive collapses due to a lack of forces because they have to send troops to Kursk, the Russian strategy of conquering the Donbass will have failed for the time being.

Nobody wants to lose the initiative

Both sides are engaged in a duel of nerves. Kiev is trying to hold off the Russians in the east with as few forces as possible in order to retain the initiative at Kursk. The Russians must not endanger the momentum in the east in order to seal off the breakthrough at Kursk. The side that first abandons its primary objective in order to avert defeat on the other front will lose this duel.

The distant but connected battles for Kursk and Prokrovsk will not end the war. But the outcome will determine the conditions under which the war continues in 2025. For free Ukraine, the Kursk operation is a liberating blow; in the months before, the initiative lay solely with Russia, while the Ukrainian troops were pushed back for months. This spell was broken at Kursk.