What Robert Habeck means with his words on the candidacy for chancellor

The pain was deep. Robert Habeck actually wanted to be the Greens’ candidate for chancellor in the last federal election. But he had to give way to his then co-party leader Annalena Baerbock. He left no doubt at the time about how much this bothered him: “I wanted nothing more than to serve this republic as chancellor.”

Because Baerbock, now Foreign Minister, announced about a month ago that she would not seek to run for chancellor again in 2025, the path is clear for the current Minister of Economic Affairs. Habeck should be very happy. Or should he?

Robert Habeck without alternative? “I don’t see anyone right now”

There is actually no one else in the Greens who could challenge Habeck for the position. After Baerbock’s withdrawal, party leader Ricarda Lang said when asked whether there could be anyone else for the job other than Habeck: “I don’t see anyone at the moment.” Habeck now just has to say that he wants to.

Why shouldn’t he want to?

In fact, on Thursday the magazine “Politico” published a podcast in which Habeck expressed his interest in running for chancellor.

“I would like to be held responsible,” says Habeck.

The sentence goes even further: “to take responsibility for Germany, for my party, for the project, for democracy, for the firm conviction, yes, the knowledge I would say, that only shaping the future will make the country fit for the future.” It is a remarkable sentence (not only because it is so long and convoluted).

The 54-year-old is speaking more clearly than ever before about his possible candidacy for chancellor. He has been asked about it constantly for months. It is also typical Habeck: “For Germany”, “for democracy”. That is the altitude below which the Green Party, whose party is currently polling between 10.5 and 13 percent, will not negotiate this question.

I want to, but…

So everything is clear? It’s not that simple. These days you can see a thoughtful Vice Chancellor. There is no one who is euphoric about the prospect. Of course, the man from Flensburg still wants it in principle. But the situation has changed since the last federal election. And he seems to have at least a slight uncertainty about whether it can work in this interaction – he as the candidate for chancellor, this party. It is therefore worth taking a close look at the other Habeck sentences from the conversation.

“It is not the case now, and that is the difference to 2021, that you say, oh, there is a field prepared, please let me take the penalty,” says Habeck.

In other words: Yes, back then, in 2022, the path to the Chancellery was basically covered in rose petals, back then the ball was on the penalty spot, all you had to do was shoot it blindly into the open goal. You can safely read that as a little dig at Annalena Baerbock, who prevailed against Habeck on the K question – and miraculously didn’t make it to the Chancellery in the end.

It is nevertheless true to say that it will be much more difficult to score a goal this time, to stay in the picture. Instead of a penalty, a real trick shot would have to be successful, from a tight angle, in wooden clogs. The 20 percent poll base has continued to crumble during the government’s time in power. The Greens are no longer starting out as innocent crowd favorites. They are now so unpopular with many voters that the competition is taking the precaution of denying any intention of forming a coalition.

As I said, no penalty. But?

“Instead, you are substituted and the score is 4-0 against you,” says Habeck.

Another sentence that is worth analyzing. In the first part, Habeck – friendly reminder: currently Vice Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany – declares himself a substitute, as if he were coming off the bench, where he had previously had to watch helplessly and tearing his hair out as the players on the field missed one ball after another. The second part of the sentence (“it’s four nil against you”) is of course still completely correct. But this deficit also has something to do with the player Habeck, and possibly with his performance as a heating reformer.

But let’s assume for the moment that player Habeck now takes off his jacket and pulls up his socks and is now ready on the sidelines – what then?

“If you say, now I’m going to turn the game around, then everyone has to know their running routes,” says Habeck. “And a lot depends on that.”

This is above all a message to his own party. What he means is that the other players must not get in his way. Then Habeck’s tactics will be used. There must be no hurt egos, no solo efforts and, above all, no arguments. If it were up to Habeck, everyone would have to submit themselves – from Annalena Baerbock to Cem Özdemir to Toni Hofreiter. At least that worked well in the last federal election campaign. But back then they were still riding the wave of success.

Habeck stands for the pragmatic course

During their time in government, however, the Greens repeatedly presented a divided image, for example on the issue of migration. The defeat in the EU elections at the beginning of June has reignited the well-known dispute over direction within the party between the realists and the left wing. Should they be more pragmatic? Or should they focus more on the concerns of their own Green clientele?

There is no doubt about what Habeck stands for.

“To say: people, we are listening, we understand, we are learning, we are ready to correct our positions, but don’t dig in your positions either.”

The upper realist stands like no other for a pragmatic course for the party. He wants to continue to align the Greens consistently with the center, with positions that, ideally, a large majority of society can support. It is essential to prevent the party from even giving the impression of entrenching itself ideologically and in a know-it-all manner behind its own convictions.

For many in the left wing of the party, Habeck’s course is painful; quite a few in the government see him as too willing to compromise, and generally too pragmatic. Before Baerbock publicly rejected a candidacy for chancellor, some “fundamentals” would have preferred to see her in the position again.

Habeck knows that too.

“We will have to talk about that a bit more and when we get to the point where we know exactly how to do it, we will let you know,” says Habeck.

What he also means by this is that he will want to see the appropriate signals in the near future, signals that his party is willing to engage with him, to follow his ideas, to give him “room to move”. The Greens’ regular party conference will take place in mid-November, and it could be Habeck’s coronation mass. But only under this condition. Habeck has now made that clear.