Russian-Ukrainian war: Putin’s new crisis – Kiev’s invasion of Kursk puts pressure on Moscow

In the Kursk region, Ukrainian soldiers are tearing Russian flags from buildings. People are leaving their homes, seeking safety with relatives and in emergency shelters. Refugees are queuing up to receive food, hygiene items and humanitarian aid from aid convoys. Tens of thousands have been in need since around 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers invaded Russia on August 6.

But Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, who likes to remember the Second World War and is particularly aware of the heavy tank battle of Kursk, has so far dismissed this first invasion by foreign troops since then – a good 80 years ago – as nothing more than a “provocation” by Kiev.

Officially, a state of emergency has been declared in the Russian border region with Ukraine. The Kremlin has declared the area a zone for anti-terrorist operations, as if there were only a few fighters to eliminate. And Putin? After 25 years in power – he first became head of government in August 1999 – the president acts as if nothing can shake him anymore. That was also when the second Chechen war began.

Apart from crisis meetings, in which Putin also allocates the equivalent of 100 euros in emergency aid for those in need, the Kremlin chief continues to deal with world politics. At a meeting in Moscow, he discussed the situation in the Middle East with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Or, as he just did, he traveled to Azerbaijan on a state visit to mediate in the negotiations for a peace treaty between the country and Armenia.

The failure in Kursk, the failure of the domestic intelligence service responsible for border protection, the General Staff and the other security structures? Putin wants to deal with that later.

Expert: Exposing Putin – balm for Kiev’s army

Meanwhile, as Russian military bloggers note, Ukrainian troops are strengthening their positions. Kiev continues to transfer weapons and technology to Russia. Putin has a problem here that will keep him busy for many months, says US military analyst Michael Kofman in a Russian podcast by the Carnegie think tank with expert Alexander Baunov. Kofman has visited Ukraine repeatedly and believes that President Volodymyr Zelensky has clearly succeeded in exposing Moscow’s and Putin’s army with the surprise attack.

The success is giving the Ukrainian soldiers a morale boost after the setbacks and territorial losses, says Kofman. The Russian army has had the initiative since autumn last year and has conquered hundreds of square kilometres in Ukraine. Now the tide has turned. Zelenskyj has also surprised the West. After all, he had always stated publicly that the situation was bad and that the army urgently needed weapons. Now the counterattack.

However, Kofman sees the risk that the West could shy away from further aid in order to prevent an escalation. Zelensky’s office chief Andriy Yermak, as well as his advisor Mykhailo Podoliak, recently made it clear that the aim now must be to destroy Russia militarily so that the country can never attack again. And Podoliak stressed that the Kursk offensive shows that no one needs to be afraid of Russia.

Open criticism of the leadership in Moscow

Even around two weeks after the start of the unprecedented Ukrainian ground offensive, the state of shock in Moscow’s power apparatus is still only slowly dissolving. Many Russians are openly astonished that the Ukrainian army has just marched across the border.

Even loyal Russians openly express their horror. He cannot believe that no one has noticed the concentration of troops on the Ukrainian side and the danger of an invasion, says Duma deputy Andrei Gurulev. “Nobody here likes the truth in reports. Everyone just wants to hear that everything is fine,” complains the retired general on state television.

Expert: Putin has no strong opponents in the country

The Russian political scientist Baunow explains in his podcast that Putin is not in any danger. “He has no critics in the country, no strong opponents,” says Baunow, who works in exile in Berlin. Putin has just had prominent opponents taken out of the country in a prisoner exchange – against their will, including Ilya Yashin. Despite being imprisoned in Russia, the opposition politician has not missed an opportunity to criticize Putin’s war as a crime.

The Kursk case shows that Putin’s war is not only bringing death and destruction to Ukraine, but also to Russia, he says. “Our country has to pay a high price for its bloody adventure.” In Russia, however, these voices from abroad are not getting through because of the state media’s coordination and thousands of blocked independent media outlets.

Rather, commentators point out that Putin has always managed to use even the biggest crises to his advantage. The West is using Ukraine as a tool to work on the disintegration of Russia, says Putin. Moscow has long considered the conflict over Ukraine to be a proxy war.

Will Zelensky’s plan work?

Baunow also expects that many Russians now believe more than ever, not least in view of the Western weapons in Kursk, Putin’s narrative that NATO and the West are really aiming for a victory over Russia. In Kiev, Zelenskyj explained that the offensive was going according to plan and that he wanted to increase the pressure on Russia to start negotiations to end the conflict. The Russians should feel what war means and come to their senses. But Baunow says: “It does not lead to disillusionment. And of course Russia cannot be forced into any kind of negotiations.”

In an analysis for Carnegie, his colleague Alexei Gusev sees the power apparatus caught between repeatedly declared stability in the country and real catastrophe. The crisis reveals what is not working in Russia. The regions in Putin’s system have already shown in other situations such as floods and the Covid pandemic that they are helpless without Moscow’s apparatus.

Independent initiatives at the regional level were never desired because suspicions quickly arose that political competition could develop, explains Gusev. He expects that the already high level of support for Putin’s war will increase significantly as a result of Zelensky’s invasion. His conclusion: “The invasion of the Kursk region and, before that, the fighting in the Belgorod area are politically leading to these regions becoming the most ‘militaristic’ and most patriotic and anti-Ukrainian.”