US election campaign: After the show: Harris’ problems on the way to the White House

At the end, Kamala Harris stands beaming in a sea of ​​white, red and blue balloons. The Democrat is surrounded by her family on the stage. Confetti rains down, music blares from loudspeakers, thousands of delegates cheer and shout. It is the end of four days of party convention in Chicago full of shows with stars and artists, with various declarations of love and great emotions to celebrate the new front woman and presidential candidate of the Democrats. And to stage her as a fighter for the good, as a protector of the weak, even as the savior of America.

But the great spectacle and the choreographed celebrations of the Democrats should not hide the fact that it will be difficult for Harris to prevail against her Republican opponent Donald Trump in the election in November. Former First Lady Michelle Obama warned in Chicago that the party should not be too confident of victory in its exuberance: “No matter how good we feel tonight or tomorrow or the day after, it will be a tough fight.”

These are the biggest problems for Harris:

The contents

The 59-year-old has been part of Joe Biden’s administration as Vice President for a good three and a half years and is responsible for everything that is currently going wrong politically. “There are indeed unresolved problems, such as uncontrolled immigration,” says the German government’s transatlantic coordinator, Michael Link. In recent years, Harris has been responsible for migration – or more precisely, for combating the causes of flight – and it is an important election campaign issue on which Trump is driving his rival ahead of him.

The situation is not bad on other important issues such as the economy, the labor market and inflation, but this is not reflected in people’s mood. This is also a big problem for Harris. She now has to “find ways to score points with credible proposals on the issues of security, migration and the cost of living,” says Link. Harris, on the other hand, has found her signature issue in the election campaign in the fight for the right to abortion, which she, as a woman, can represent much better than Biden ever could.

The performance

As a prosecutor and senator, Harris has acted confidently and confidently in the past. However, she never really settled into her role as vice president. In recent years, she has been little visible in the – admittedly not easy – position, has not been able to score points in terms of content, has made mistakes, and has often seemed insecure and tense. Until a few weeks ago, she was still seen as additional ballast for Biden in his election campaign and, like him, has struggled with dramatically poor popularity ratings.

Since the Democrats chose Harris as their new front woman, her popularity in the country has improved rapidly. In polls, she is now just ahead of Trump – another great success. However, in the past few weeks, since Biden dropped out of the race and she was catapulted to the top, Harris has only moved in a protected space of appearances that are choreographed and staged down to the last detail. No interviews, no press conferences, no visits to politically sensitive places, no movements in unfamiliar territory.

The convention show is the climax of this production so far. In the coming weeks, Harris will have to prove herself in situations that are not entirely under the control of her campaign team.

The problematic “swing states”

In most of the 50 US states, the race for the presidency is already over before election day because voters there reliably vote for either the Republicans or the Democrats. However, a few states are politically hotly contested. In these “swing states”, extremely close election results are expected: in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Harris and Trump are focusing their campaigns almost exclusively on these regions. In these few states, a very small number of votes will ultimately decide the election. Biden’s victory in Georgia, for example, was decided by fewer than 12,000 votes in the most recent election in 2020.

The third candidate

There is speculation that the independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy could drop out of the race and support Trump. The 70-year-old has announced a speech for Friday evening in Germany on the current “historic moment” and his “further path” – in Arizona, where Trump is also campaigning in parallel. Kennedy’s vice president Nicole Shanahan recently brought up the possibility of joining forces with Trump.

The nephew of the legendary former president John F. Kennedy has no chance in the presidential election – in polls he is only getting around five percent on average. But since Harris and Trump are neck and neck in polls, his withdrawal could benefit Trump and give him decisive votes. If this setback comes immediately after the Democrats’ big coronation mass in Chicago, it would also take away some of the momentum Harris gained there.