State elections: Poll: AfD ahead in Thuringia and Saxony

One week before the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, a survey conducted by the Insa Institute for the “Bild” newspaper sees the AfD ahead in both states. According to the pollsters’ results, no government majorities are currently possible without the participation of the BSW or the AfD.

In Saxony, the AfD received 32 percent, putting it ahead of the CDU (30 percent). According to the survey, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) received 15 percent, the SPD 6 percent and the Greens 5 percent. The Left would be eliminated from the Dresden state parliament with 4 percent. The Free Voters received 3 percent, the others such as the FDP 5 percent. A majority without the participation of the AfD would therefore only be possible with the BSW.

In the neighboring state of Thuringia, according to the Insa survey commissioned by “Bild,” the AfD is ahead in voter favor with 30 percent, followed by the CDU (21 percent) and the BSW (20 percent). The Left Party is at 14 percent and the SPD at 6 percent. The FDP and the Greens would miss out on re-entry into the state parliament with 3 percent each. The other parties are at 3 percent.

If voters could elect the prime ministers directly, both incumbents would be clearly in the lead one week before the vote, according to Insa. In Saxony, almost half of those surveyed (45 percent) voted for Michael Kretschmer (CDU). In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow (Left Party) would receive 33 percent and AfD top candidate Björn Höcke would receive 18 percent.

Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.