Ukraine: DGAP expert Mölling sees three reasons for Kursk offensive

The advance of Ukraine into the Russian region of Kursk has surprised everyone – the partners in the West as well as the military in Moscow. But what is behind the plan of President Volodymyr Selenskyj and Army Chief Olexander Syrskyj? Military expert Christian Mölling said on Friday in star– “The situation – international”: “None of us could imagine that the Ukrainians would be so daring and launch such an offensive.” But despite the tense situation on the front in Donbass, there are reasons for this approach.

The research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations named three in particular: Ukraine wants to prepare for the event that Donald Trump wins the presidential election in the USA and forces them into quick peace negotiations – he could achieve this by reducing US support. In that case, occupied Russian territory would be a bargaining chip to enforce at least minimal demands. In addition, the occupied territories on the Russian side themselves represent a buffer zone in the war. Attacks on Ukrainian metropolitan areas would therefore have to overcome greater distances. Finally, the Ukrainians have managed to change the perception in the media – they are no longer seen as notorious losers, but can report successes.

Ukraine offensive: mentality differences between Kyiv and Washington

Mölling explained the surprise at the Ukrainians’ actions with the difference in mentality between the decision-makers in Kiev and the strategists in Brussels or Washington: “Some are fighting for their survival, others have essentially planned war in theory after the end of the Cold War.” Selenskyj, on the other hand, is forced to “act with what little he has.” For the Ukrainians, the following picture emerges: “As long as they are on the offensive, they have the buffer zone. If they can hold it, they have a bargaining chip. In any case, they have a different spin in the media.” Mölling admitted that Ukraine had to retreat from the attackers in the east of the country. But he does not expect the front to collapse and the Russians to advance quickly and far.

“Russia is doing everything it can”

Mölling again spoke out in favor of relaxing the conditions for the use of Western weapons by the Ukrainians. “The talk about red lines and escalation has basically been refuted,” he said. “Russia is doing everything it can to win this war. There is no easy way to shift up a gear.” The outcome of the war is also extremely important for the West. “It is about answering the question at the end of this conflict of how much blackmail power Russia has over Europe – not just over Ukraine.”