Olaf Scholz in Saxony: Last stand before the fateful day

Now it’s time for Olaf Scholz to turn things up again. Against his opponents and critics, the “right-wing loudmouths” and “slogans”. Scholz gets so loud that his voice breaks briefly. He wants to make something clear.

“Others have been busy with speeches, interviews and whatever,” shouts the Chancellor from the stage. His government, on the other hand, has ensured that the “announcement” has been implemented: to send serious criminals back to Afghanistan.

“That’s what happened today and it’s the clearest signal of what’s needed,” says Scholz. “Don’t make so many statements and make sure things run smoothly. That’s my principle.”

The red sheriff is in town, or so it sounds. Whatever the Chancellor tackles, gets done. The traffic light coalition delivers. There had been doubts about that – now of all times.

The SPD’s election campaign in Saxony is coming to an end. The Neumarkt in the center of Chemnitz is well-filled on Tuesday afternoon. The sun is blazing, and there is little shade. Scholz has rolled up his sleeves, figuratively speaking.

Before the fateful Sunday, the Chancellor is fighting, showing his presence, bracing himself against the downward trend that, according to the polls, could push his SPD out of the state parliaments in Saxony and Thuringia. It would be a historic turning point for the party, far more than a bitter defeat. Scholz is expected in Brandenburg this evening, where elections will be held on September 22nd.

It’s a final spurt according to the motto: Most people only decide shortly before the election where they will cast their vote – so now it’s full throttle. In fact, around a quarter of Saxons are still undecided. Can Scholz help?

“Solingen overshadows the entire election campaign”

Two major issues have dominated the election campaign in terms of volume so far: the war in Ukraine and migration. Now it is almost only migration.

The fatal knife attack in Solingen had “moved” him, says Scholz, now much more quietly. A first responder told him how he had pressed a sweater onto the large, bleeding wound of a victim. Many are still “shaken” by the experience, Scholz himself obviously too. “We will not let the Islamists do that to us,” he says.

Less than 24 hours earlier, the Chancellor and the coalition had sent out a signal of toughness and ability to act, putting together a “security package” with knife-free zones and stricter rules for asylum seekers. On Friday morning, the first deportation flight with criminals took off for Kabul, Afghanistan. The Chancellor is also trying to prove that the country is not slipping away from him, as he was accused of doing immediately after the attack.

The timing of the offensive, shortly before the elections, is therefore unlikely to be a coincidence. “Solingen is overshadowing the entire election campaign,” says Petra Köpping, SPD top candidate and Minister of Social Affairs in Saxony, who speaks on stage beforehand. She probably means the tragic event itself rather than the political debate that has erupted as a result. Both are likely true. Like Scholz, she also stresses that we must not allow ourselves to be driven apart, but must stand together.

“Listen and solve” is Köpping’s motto. It’s about Saxony, she says. That’s also why she invited federal politicians to the election campaign, although many people were surprised. After all, they work for Saxony in Berlin. But the truth is that Köpping cannot afford to do without campaign help and attention.

Olaf Scholz and the hesitation

The SPD in Saxony is advertising state-political issues on posters, such as “More teachers” or “Good daycare centers and schools,” but this is hardly able to get through to the shrill messages of the AfD and BSW. According to the polls, the Social Democrats are moving dangerously close to the 5 percent hurdle, the political death zone.

There are a few percent between a key role and a shambles, between prosperity and woe. If the SPD succeeds in being re-elected, it is likely that it will participate in the government in order to prevent extremists and populists from taking power. If that does not work, then the next few weeks will be quite uncomfortable for the unpopular chancellor and his unpopular coalition.

It’s about Saxony, yes – but also about a little more.

And so Scholz literally shouts his successes and principles to the audience so that they are not drowned out by the “Get out!” cries of some obviously right-wing extremist troublemakers on the edge of the market square. Fair wages, stable pensions, more skilled workers – also through migration, but regulated – and the establishment of semiconductor production in eastern Germany. “Some are so busy shouting that they don’t even notice the future,” shouts the Chancellor.

But it is still about the war in Ukraine, a topic that is being brought up in the state election campaign by Wagenknecht’s party in particular. “The BSW is only about war and Berlin,” grumbles top candidate Köpping. But the Chancellor wants to address it. It is an opportunity to emphasize his self-proclaimed loyalty to principles.

“I’ve heard that I’m hesitant,” says Scholz. But the truth is: “I was steadfast. And I want to stay that way.” Despite all the support for Ukraine, which must not be stopped, there will be no escalation between NATO and Russia with him. “That is also my job and I stand by it.” Here he sounds a bit like a peace chancellor again.

Scholz does not explicitly address the arms deliveries, nor does he mention the stationing of US missiles in Germany. Instead, Scholz speaks of Willy Brandt’s policy of détente, which had no border shifts as a principle, a prospective return to arms control and the first peace talks. Russia should also be there next time, says Scholz, although it must always be clear that President Putin will never be able to read in the history books that he enlarged his country. A clear statement, here too.

“Good luck,” Scholz calls out as he leaves. Good luck is not an option for him.