State elections I A scary look from Berlin: Who has to worry now

On Sunday, citizens in Saxony and Thuringia will elect new parliaments: In both states, the traffic light parties are likely to suffer heavy defeats, while the extreme right and the populists will triumph. Complicated government formations are looming.

Berlin politicians will also be watching the results with anticipation: possible shocks on election night could extend to the capital. Anything is possible, from defeats that are just barely bearable to a risky triumph and even a test of authority. What is at stake for Olaf Scholz, Friedrich Merz, Sahra Wagenknecht and Co.:

Olaf Scholz: Will the SPD still think he is the right person…?

For the SPD on Sunday, only a few percentage points separated the key role from being left in ruins: According to the polls (6 percent), the Social Democrats are dangerously close to the 5 percent hurdle, the death zone. A historic debacle is looming, and the SPD would be thrown out of parliament for the first time. The worst result since reunification already seems certain in the states.

Can the leading candidates Katja Köpping, Minister of Social Affairs in Saxony, and Georg Maier, Minister of the Interior in Thuringia, avert the disaster? The odds are stacked against each other, because if the Social Democrats manage to stay in the state parliament, it is likely that they will participate in the government in both Saxony and Thuringia in order to prevent a coalition with extremists and populists.

So everything is at stake, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the federal party will be keeping a close eye on the red election bars. A defeat would go home with them too, and would probably lead to the SPD taking a more broad-based stance in the unpopular traffic light coalition in order to make its profile more recognizable. According to the motto: no more consideration. Even more noise would be priced in.

There is also the question of whether the equally unpopular chancellor would still be the right candidate for the 2025 federal election. So far, the SPD leadership has demonstratively backed Scholz, assuring that he is and will remain chancellor and candidate. Even after crushing defeats in Saxony and Thuringia?

And on September 22nd there will be the state election in Brandenburg, where Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke wants to defend the state chancellery for the SPD. Until then, Woidke has no use for public personnel debates and mudslinging – that could possibly discipline his party. At least for now.

Friedrich Merz: The CDU leader faces a test of authority

Friedrich Merz can actually look at his situation with some composure. His party’s poll ratings are stable and he himself has the CDU under control. The problem is that it is unclear whether this will still be the case on Sunday. His people are particularly nervous about Thuringia, where their own regional association lost its way in terms of power politics four years ago, to the point where a CDU federal chairwoman stumbled over it.

The question of whether it can appoint its own prime minister with the help of the BSW or the Left could tear the CDU apart this time too – just at the time when the Union’s candidate for chancellor is supposed to be decided. The days after the election will also be a test of the party leader’s authority: will Merz manage to keep his regional association from playing the most dangerous games? Or will he get bogged down? One person will be watching very closely: Markus Söder, who is still hoping for a chance in the K question.

Sahra Wagenknecht: The probable triumph entails risks

If Sahra Wagenknecht is shaking on Sunday evening, it is probably mainly because of joy. Her new party is in solid double-digit numbers in the polls for Saxony and Thuringia.

But the probable victory poses risks for her actual goal: the federal election. Wagenknecht’s stage is in Berlin. This is where she wants to come to power.

The problem: If her party were needed to govern in Dresden, Erfurt or later in Potsdam, it would have to make compromises. The BSW would have to get involved with the CDU and possibly the SPD, precisely those parties that Wagenknecht describes as incompetent.

This was obviously also a reason why the party leader kept setting new conditions for participation in the government. The new coalition must declare its opposition to arms deliveries to Ukraine and new US missiles in Germany, she decreed. And she herself would enforce this in the negotiations.

But will their state party colleagues, once they have been given mandates, still stick to their instructions? This question is certainly a cause for concern.

Björn Höcke: It could be a Pyrrhic victory for the AfD politician

The AfD is likely to win the elections in Thuringia. If the poll results are not completely wrong, state leader Björn Höcke will no longer be able to take first place. In keeping with his nature, he will celebrate the result as a total victory.

But as a history teacher, Höcke certainly knows Pyrrhus I of Epirus: a battle won can bring about the next defeat.

Höcke’s influence in the AfD has already declined. And the fact that the party will become the strongest faction in Erfurt has long been priced in.

The key question will be whether the AfD can claim more than a third of the seats in the state parliament. Then it would have a so-called blocking minority, i.e. a veto against everything that requires a two-thirds majority in parliament – from constitutional changes to judicial elections to the self-dissolution of the state parliament.

In this case, Höcke would have the leverage to shape things. If he doesn’t get it, it would be a Pyrrhic victory that would lead to his early retirement. The next generation in the federal party is already in place to take over. Höcke would have done his duty.

Christian Lindner: The FDP leader and three exciting questions

Sunday holds three exciting questions for the FDP leader. Question 1: Will his party continue its losing streak unabated? The FDP has lost all seven state elections since the federal election: in two of them they were thrown out of government, in four they were thrown out of the state parliament (as is now the case in Thuringia) or remained out (as is now the case in Saxony).

The FDP is gradually degenerating into a grande dame without a lower body. Question 2 is: How long will Lindner’s party stand by and watch its own decline? And one thing is the traffic light law: when things get unsettled in the FDP, there is a storm in the coalition.

Paradoxically, things will only get unpleasant for Lindner if the Liberals do well in Thuringia. They have been in disgrace since the unfortunate election of Thomas Kemmerich as short-term MP (with votes from the AfD!). That is why there was neither money nor joint appearances from Berlin. Question 3 is: What if the latter was actually helpful?

Robert Habeck: Low green expectations, but still pain

The Greens have always had difficulties outside of the cities, especially in the new federal states. Expectations are therefore low – on the one hand, this is good for Robert Habeck and the Greens. So, at least from a national political perspective, there is little at stake for the party and its likely top candidate for the federal election campaign.

Any re-entry into one of the state parliaments would be a success. In Saxony, this could also work thanks to a special regulation: If the Greens win two direct mandates, for example in Leipzig and Dresden, they will be elected, even if they remain below the five percent hurdle overall.

Despite the low expectations, Habeck must be hurt by the desolate situation of the Greens in Thuringia and Saxony. After all, this is miles away from where Habeck actually wants to see his party: anchored in society as a whole. During the previous period of government in the traffic light coalition, this claim has not borne fruit. The Greens are facing deep rejection in many places – not only, but also, because of Habeck’s heating law, which is disastrous from a power-political perspective. For Habeck, the state elections are therefore likely to be one of many signs of how difficult the federal election campaign will be.