State elections: What lies ahead for Saxony and Thuringia

Never before has there been so much attention for two regional elections. Not only the whole of Germany, but also an interested part of the world public will be watching Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday. Because there are likely to be several political premieres.

For the first time since 1945, the AfD is a party that is partly right-wing extremist and is on the verge of becoming the strongest faction in a German parliament. In Thuringia, where its regional association is led by Björn Höcke, the AfD is unchallenged in first place in the polls. In neighboring Saxony, the CDU is likely to defend its lead once again, but it could be a very close call.

Now all other parties have ruled out cooperating with the AfD. But even if it is not on the verge of joining the government, it could gain political influence. If it holds more than a third of the seats, it could block everything in parliament that requires a two-thirds majority, from constitutional changes to the election of judges. Or it would have to be integrated.

The presumed success of the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition is a similarly historic turning point. A party that did not exist a year ago is likely to enter both state parliaments with double-digit results and reach for government power. At least in Thuringia, the BSW will probably be needed to enable a majority to be formed.

But what exactly does this mean for Saxony and Thuringia? Which political scenarios are likely – and which are not?

In Saxony, CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, according to the current Forsa survey commissioned by the star two coalition options. He could probably form a majority together with the BSW, although he would have to accept the SPD if necessary. Or he could continue the current Kenya coalition with the SPD and the Greens.

Kretschmer is likely to have two options for power

The fact that Kretschmer has declared the Greens to be the main opponent at federal level and has also spoken disparagingly of the Green partners in the state speaks in favor of a merger with the BSW. In addition, the Prime Minister knows the BSW state leader Sabine Zimmermann from their time together in the Bundestag, where she was a member of parliament for a long time.

Nevertheless, the Wagenknecht party is more difficult for Kretschmer to calculate, both in terms of personnel and content. With the SPD and the Greens, day-to-day work worked despite all the public disputes.

Either way, the probability is high that the CDU will come first in Saxony and be able to form a majority government. The fact that this is not a given is clearly demonstrated by Thuringia, where a red-red-green minority coalition, formed only with acute pain, governs.

The main reason: AfD and the Left have held the majority of parliamentary seats since 2019. The coalition with the SPD and the Greens, led by the only left-wing head of government, Bodo Ramelow, had lost its majority. Since nobody wanted to govern with the AfD and, moreover, the CDU ruled out any cooperation with the Left, a voting trick by the AfD led to the election of FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich as prime minister and the subsequent government crisis.

Now, almost five years later, the involuntary blockade by the Left and AfD could be broken. The AfD has indeed become stronger in Thuringia and is now at 30 percent. At the same time, however, the Left has completely collapsed due to the BSW, which has shot up to 18 percent. Despite the incumbency bonus of the still popular Prime Minister, the Left, which achieved 31 percent in 2019, is now only measured at 14 percent. While the SPD is holding at 7 percent, the Greens and FDP would land below the 5 percent hurdle and be thrown out of the state parliament.

In Thuringia, the CDU would have the mandate to govern

Because no other party wants to talk to the AfD, the task of forming a government would fall to the CDU, which, according to the survey, is at 22 percent. Together with the BSW and the SPD, it would have a share of the vote of 46 percent. Since the 10 percent that were cast as votes for the Greens, FDP and small parties do not count when calculating the seats, this would be enough for a narrow majority of seats. At the same time, the AfD would narrowly miss the blocking minority.

But polls can be wrong, especially in East Germany. It is conceivable, for example, that the Left Party will make a final spurt thanks to Ramelow and that the AfD will perform even better than expected after the terrorist attack in Solingen. Then the CDU would once again be faced with the old question of whether to work with the Left Party, while everyone would have to think together about how to deal with a Höcke party with a constitutional veto. The threat is ungovernability – or a petrified Ramelow government for several years.

The first test will be the election of the President of the State Parliament

Furthermore, those involved in Thuringia do not have much time. The new state parliament must constitute itself and elect a president within 30 days. According to the rules of procedure, the AfD, as the strongest faction, would have the right to propose candidates. This means that only they could put forward a candidate in the first round of voting – and possibly also in the second attempt.

If no President of the State Parliament is elected, the next ballot would have to be opened. Even if there is no precedent for this, only what the State Constitution regulates would then apply. This means that Parliament elects a President “from among its members” (Article 57), with all MPs “only being bound by their conscience” (Article 53). Since the Constitution does not provide any precise requirements, a simple majority of votes is sufficient.

This means that a potential coalition would have to have negotiated a consensus candidate before the parliament was constituted. The election of the state parliament president would thus be the initial spark for the future state government.

But of course things can also turn out differently. The election of the President of the State Parliament is just as secret as the possible later election of a Minister President. And since Kemmerich’s interregnum at the latest, we know that in Thuringia, anything is possible.

And if someone then calls for new elections: As acting Prime Minister, Ramelow would no longer have the right to ask the necessary vote of confidence. And the two-thirds majority required for parliament to dissolve itself is unlikely to fail just because of Höcke’s AfD. Thuringia has already set a bad example of this in 2021.