State election: Close race between CDU and AfD in Saxony – BSW in third place

In the state elections in Saxony, the CDU and AfD are racing for first place. According to projections, the Union is losing votes slightly compared to the 2019 election, but is still narrowly ahead. The AfD is gaining ground. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer believes the CDU is once again in a position to form a government. However, forming a government could be difficult because none of the other parties want to work with the AfD.

The new coalition of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) came in third, with the SPD a distant second. The Greens have to worry about entering the state parliament, the Left Party failed to clear the five percent hurdle and could be thrown out of parliament.

BSW immediately double-digit

According to projections (as of 8:30 p.m.), the CDU is at 31.5 to 31.8 percent (2019: 32.1 percent), with the AfD just behind at 30.7 to 31.4 percent (27.5). The BSW is at 11.5 to 12.0 percent straight away. The SPD is at 7.6 percent (7.7). The Left Party is slipping dramatically to 4.1 to 4.3 percent (10.4) – and thus below the five percent hurdle.

The Greens also have to worry, with 5.1 to 5.2 percent (8.6). The FDP once again missed out on a place in the state parliament – as it did in the last two state elections. However, all parties that receive less than five percent can make it into the state parliament according to their second vote result if they win two direct mandates.

According to projections, the AfD, which the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as definitely right-wing extremist, will receive 40 to 41 seats (38), the CDU 41 to 42 seats (45). The BSW will have 16 to 17 representatives. The SPD will receive 10 seats (10), the Greens will have 7 seats (12).

Around 3.3 million citizens were called to vote. Voter turnout was between 73.5 and 74.0 percent.

Kretschmer expects difficult formation of government

Prime Minister Kretschmer believes that, after the first figures, his party is in a position to continue to form the government in the state. “It won’t be easy,” said Kretschmer at the CDU’s election party. “But one thing is certain: with a lot of discussions and the will to do something for this state, we can use this election result to give Saxony a stable government that serves the state and moves forward with humility.” The CDU is ready to continue to take on responsibility for this state.

CDU could depend on BSW

Since reunification, the CDU has always provided the head of government in Saxony – most recently Kretschmer has governed in a coalition with the Greens and SPD since 2019. According to projections, it would not be enough to continue the alliance. Mathematically, it would be possible for the CDU to receive support from the BSW and the SPD.

But: BSW boss Wagenknecht was also once a member of the SED and was later considered an icon of the communist platform in the Left – which is causing a lot of CDU politicians to have a headache. A coalition would still be possible, because according to an incompatibility resolution by the CDU, the party is not allowed to form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left – but there is no decision on the BSW, which split from the Left.

Before the election, the Greens had accused the CDU and SPD of preparing for a joint minority government. The CDU and SPD have already formed a coalition in Saxony three times.

AfD has beaten CDU in Saxony several times

The AfD had already beaten the Union in Saxony in previous elections: in two federal elections and one European election. If it were to win more than a third of the state parliament seats, it would have a so-called blocking minority: decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority would require the approval of the AfD. For example, constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.

AfD federal chairwoman Alice Weidel viewed the outcome of the elections in Thuringia and Saxony as a historic success for her party. At the same time, it was a punishment for the traffic light government at the federal level, Weidel said on ARD. Weidel also criticized the CDU’s stance of ruling out a coalition with the AfD. “This is of course pure ignorance of the will of the voters,” she said. Without the AfD, a stable government would no longer be possible at all.

BSW top candidate is satisfied

The Saxon BSW top candidate Sabine Zimmermann was satisfied with her party’s result. “We are in double figures and we have maintained the result of the European elections. We can be proud of that and we are,” she said on ARD. With the BSW, politics must change, which will be very noticeable for the citizens. “And that in a short time.” On ZDF, she again rejected a possible coalition with the AfD. Instead, the party is also looking at the Christian Democrats.

The SPD’s top candidate Petra Köpping expressed relief at her party’s performance. “I am of course just as happy as you are that we have been fighting this really tough election campaign over the last few months, I would almost say years (…) and that we have performed so well in line with all the forecasts,” she said.

Green Party leader Omid Nouripour initially saw the chance for his party to continue to participate in the government in Saxony. The coalition there has worked well, he said on ARD. “Even if the Prime Minister has actually been campaigning against his own people the whole time for the last two years.”

Sharp tones before the election

The election campaign was heated. One point of contention was the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and Germany’s role as Kiev’s ally and in NATO. Wagenknecht said that for BSW to be involved in a government, the government would have to clearly speak out against the stationing of long-range US missiles in Germany.

The knife attack in Solingen, which left three people dead, brought additional intensity to the debate on asylum and migration. The Federal Prosecutor’s Office blames a suspected Islamist Syrian who came to Germany as a refugee.