State elections: Without populists, (almost) nothing works anymore

In Thuringia, the AfD is the first right-wing extremist party in post-war German history to become the strongest force. In Saxony, the AfD comes in a close second. And in both states, the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition achieved double-digit results. Together, the populists thus received almost half of the votes cast.

It has come to this.

Without populists, (almost) nothing works anymore

Mario Voigt probably has no other choice: If the Thuringian CDU’s top candidate wants to become prime minister, he will have to form a coalition with the left-wing populists of the BSW. According to projections, the CDU will only have a majority with BSW and one other party. Depending on the final result, this could be the SPD. The Left Party would also be enough. However, the CDU has so far ruled out working with them.

Nothing works in Thuringia without the populists. And in Saxony, too, there is no way around the BSW for the majority.

The previous coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens no longer has a majority there. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) is also only left with a three-party alliance with the BSW and another party. He has also ruled out a government with the AfD.

State elections likely to lead to blocking minority

So the AfD will not govern. But that is the end of the good news. With a third of the seats, the right-wing extremists can prevent the election of constitutional judges and block changes to the state constitution. The concern is that the government would then be dependent on the AfD’s votes for important decisions. The AfD could use this power to blackmail concessions.

Olaf Scholz remains Chancellor

The great disaster, the historic turning point, has not occurred for the SPD: being voted out of parliament. Olaf Scholz should therefore be spared an unpleasant question for the time being: can he still remain chancellor?

Of course, the SPD has not achieved brilliant results. In both Saxony and Thuringia, it remains at a low, single-digit level – but that is nothing new. Much more important for Scholz and the federal party: the SPD remains in both state parliaments. Due to the complicated majority situation, the Social Democrats may even play a key role in the coalition negotiations, and participation in the government is likely.

And that, to put it bluntly, despite the unpopular traffic light coalition and its equally unpopular head of government. Scholz may not have emerged from these elections strengthened, but he does not have to fear a party revolt. The ones who have been plucked out are the Greens and the FDP, who have suffered some heavy losses. That will not make Scholz’s work in the traffic light coalition any easier, but the battered coalition partners can have even less interest in a break.

Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor (candidate)

The CDU can breathe a sigh of relief – the risky asylum policy of its chairman Friedrich Merz has not backfired. In Saxony, Michael Kretschmer will most likely be able to continue to govern. And if Mario Voigt plays his smart game in Thuringia, another CDU prime minister could soon be added.

The problem: forming a coalition will be difficult. Voigt will have to pull off the feat of convincing his own party to take Sahra Wagenknecht’s alliance on board – in whatever coalition. Nothing will work without the BSW, at least if you want to leave the AfD out.

Many in the CDU cannot yet quite imagine how a former Marxist is supposed to fit in with the conservatives. But from Merz’s point of view, the most important thing is that his party now has it in its own hands and can enter the state chancellery without the AfD. His chances of becoming chancellor candidate have probably increased rather than decreased, but the complicated process of forming a government will be a tough test of whether he has his shop under control in Thuringia.

Robert Habeck is more likely to become Federal President

In Thuringia, the Greens are being thrown out of the state parliament, and in Saxony they are just about managing to get over the five percent hurdle. Nevertheless, it is not a mediocre day for the Greens, but a bad one. Of course, the party has always had a harder time here than, say, in Lower Saxony. But where are the Greens having an easy time right now? They are being met with an icy wind everywhere, and not infrequently, and not only in the East, it is often pure hatred.

The decline of the former political darlings continues. It is slowly becoming more and more difficult for Robert Habeck to explain where the votes will come from that will pave his way to the Chancellery in a year.

Today’s forecast: It is more likely that the next Federal President will be called Habeck than the next Chancellor. In any case, the Vice Chancellor can speak better than both current incumbents combined.

There is a small glimmer of hope. Perhaps the other parties will learn at least one lesson from the last election campaigns: they should not attack their democratic competitors too hard. In the end, they need them to provide a majority against the populists.

FDP now only “Other”

The FDP no longer plays a role in Thuringia and Saxony, apart from being a laughing stock. It was clear that it would not be enough to form a government. It was to be expected that the Liberals would have a hard time even entering one of the parliaments. But the fact that the FDP would not land just under the five percent hurdle in the first polls, but only just above the zero mark – that must have been a shock even for the long-suffering Liberals in the party’s Berlin headquarters.

The FDP no longer has anything that makes it interesting for voters in Saxony and Thuringia. It is not rewarded for governing in the traffic light coalition. But even as an opposition party in the states it is not able to profit from dissatisfied voters. The FDP is now just one of the other parties, like the Animal Protection Party.

Two defeats were already priced in, the FDP said before election day. But does that also apply to two disasters? Does party leader Christian Lindner have to react now before his party simply fizzles out? His general secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai spoke on Sunday evening of a “temporary setback”. Christian Lindner remained silent.

And then Wolfgang Kubicki speaks up and says that the traffic light coalition has lost its legitimacy. It is damaging the FDP. The discussion has begun.