State election: Everything counted: CDU becomes strongest force in Saxony

A narrow victory after a long struggle: The CDU has won the state election in Saxony – ahead of the second-placed AfD. After all the votes have been counted, the AfD has gained significantly compared to the 2019 election, but cannot overtake the slightly losing Union.

However, forming a government could be difficult, as none of the other parties want to work with the AfD. And according to projections by ARD and ZDF on the distribution of seats, there is not enough for a new edition of Kretschmer’s current coalition of CDU, Greens and SPD. The state election officer initially did not publish any information on the distribution of seats.

The new coalition of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) came in third, followed by the SPD at a distance. The Greens barely made it into parliament. The Left Party is below the five percent hurdle. However, it won two direct mandates in Leipzig, so it will still be represented in the state parliament in accordance with its second vote result.

BSW immediately double-digit

As the state electoral commission announced on its website after counting all constituencies, the CDU received 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent). The AfD is just behind with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW achieved 11.8 percent straight away. The SPD landed at 7.3 percent (7.7). The Left slipped dramatically to 4.5 percent (10.4).

The Greens received 5.1 percent (8.6). The FDP once again failed to enter the state parliament – as it did in the last two state elections.

According to the latest projections by ARD and ZDF, the AfD, which the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified as definitely right-wing extremist, will receive 40 seats (38), the CDU 42 seats (45). The BSW will have 15 representatives. The SPD will receive 10 seats (10), the Greens will have 7 seats (12). The Left will receive 6 seats.

Around 3.3 million citizens were called to vote. Voter turnout was 74.4 percent – higher than ever before in a state election in the Free State.

Kretschmer expects difficult formation of government

Prime Minister Kretschmer believes his party is capable of continuing to form the government in the state. “It won’t be easy,” he said at the CDU’s election party. “But one thing is certain: with a lot of discussions and the will to do something for this state, we can use this election result to give Saxony a stable government that serves the state and moves forward with humility.” The CDU is ready to continue to take on responsibility for this state.

CDU could depend on BSW

Since reunification, the CDU has always provided the head of government in Saxony – most recently Kretschmer has governed in a coalition with the Greens and SPD since 2019. According to projections, this is not enough to continue the alliance. Mathematically, it would be possible for the CDU to receive support from the BSW and the SPD.

But: BSW boss Wagenknecht was also once a member of the SED and was later considered an icon of the communist platform in the Left – which is causing a lot of CDU politicians to have a headache. A coalition would still be possible, because according to an incompatibility resolution by the CDU, the party is not allowed to form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left – but there is no decision on the BSW, which split from the Left.

Before the election, the Greens had accused the CDU and SPD of preparing for a joint minority government. The CDU and SPD have already formed a coalition in Saxony three times.

AfD has beaten CDU in Saxony several times

The AfD had already beaten the Union in Saxony in elections: in two federal elections and one European election. If it now wins more than a third of the state parliament seats, which the projections recently did not suggest, it would have a so-called blocking minority: decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority would require the approval of the AfD. For example, constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.

AfD federal chairwoman Alice Weidel viewed the outcome of the elections in Thuringia and Saxony as a historic success for her party. At the same time, it was a punishment for the traffic light government at the federal level, Weidel said on ARD. She also criticized the CDU’s stance of ruling out a coalition with the AfD. “This is of course pure ignorance of the will of the voters,” said Weidel. Without the AfD, a stable government would no longer be possible at all.

BSW top candidate is satisfied

The Saxon BSW top candidate Sabine Zimmermann was satisfied with her party’s result. “We are in double figures and we have maintained the result of the European elections. We can be proud of that, and we are,” she said on ARD. With the BSW, politics must change, and this will be very noticeable for the citizens. “And that in a short space of time.” On ZDF, she again rejected a possible coalition with the AfD. Instead, the party is also looking at the Christian Democrats.

The SPD’s top candidate Petra Köpping expressed relief at her party’s performance. “I am of course just as happy as you are that we have been fighting this really tough election campaign over the last few months, I would almost say years (…) and that we have performed so well in line with all the forecasts,” she said.

Green Party leader Omid Nouripour initially saw the chance for his party to continue to participate in the government in Saxony. The coalition there has worked well, he said on ARD. “Even if the Prime Minister has actually been campaigning against his own people the whole time for the last two years.”

Sharp tones before the election

The election campaign was heated. One point of contention was the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and Germany’s role as Kiev’s ally and in NATO. Wagenknecht said that for BSW to be involved in a government, the government would have to clearly speak out against the stationing of long-range US missiles in Germany.

The attack in Solingen, which left three people dead, brought additional tension to the debate on asylum and migration. The Federal Prosecutor’s Office blames a suspected Islamist Syrian who came to Germany as a refugee.