New US election polls are constantly appearing in the news. How meaningful are they? A short guide through the polling jungle.
Americans call the first big hello, the weeks after the vows, the honeymoon. The period when the candidates for the presidential election are decided – and people’s hearts are first drawn to them. Just like Kamala Harris. But that’s over now: for the first time since Vice President Harris replaced US President Joe Biden as the US Democrats’ candidate, her poll ratings are falling. Only a little, but enough to make people sit up and take notice before the upcoming TV debate.
Left-liberal America’s new hope has lost two and a half percentage points to its competitor Donald Trump. On the other hand, it has lost only half a percentage point in the hotly contested states – i.e. where the election will most likely be decided. According to the New York Times, the election duel is now 47 to 48 percent for Trump. However, these figures are only the result of one survey among dozens: According to the average pollsters, Harris is still slightly ahead of the Republican.
So what exactly do these numbers mean? Do they say anything about the election results on November 5? And what about the elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives that are taking place at the same time? An overview.
The catch with the election polls
Eight weeks before the vote, the outcome is still completely open. Although Kamala Harris has steadily gained popularity since Biden’s withdrawal and has even overtaken Republican Trump, the lead is too small to derive any kind of forecast from it. There are a few drawbacks to the poll results, which are generally good for Harris:
The margin of error: Surveys, like all measurements, contain a percentage of inaccuracy and/or sampling error. Also, people do not always answer truthfully. This margin of error is approximately between three and five percent, depending on the number of respondents and the survey method.
This means that if a poll comes to the conclusion that Kamala Harris is at 47 percent, then you should actually say that she is at around 46 to 48 percent. We don’t know more precisely. And if Donald Trump is at 48 percent, then his value is roughly between 47 and 49 percent. Only if the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is around three percentage points would this be a really reliable statement. But currently, the two are closer together in the majority of surveys.
Surveys are not forecasts: In 2016, there were two big election surprises: when the British voted for Brexit in the summer and the Americans elected Donald Trump as US president in the autumn – although in both cases the polls had painted a different picture. The problem at the time was not only the quality of the figures, but even more so the interpretation by journalists and pollsters. In fact, both votes were so close and within the margin of error that any forecast based on polls was actually impossible.
Another example: In the last US presidential election four years ago, Joe Biden was around eight percentage points ahead of Trump in the polls a few days before the vote. In the end, he won by just five percentage points. The difference of around three percentage points corresponds roughly to the most comfortable cushion that Harris currently has over Trump.
Not all surveys are the same: There are countless ways to get people’s opinions: by phone or in person, through online voting or questionnaires. You can also ask non-voters, party members, women, men, old people, young people, only black academics or only Asian supermarket workers. The results will always be different.
Sometimes it depends on the question: Is it open, like: “Who would you rather see in the White House?” Or closed, like: “Would you vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as president?” Pollsters often have political favorites. At the Rasmussen Reports institute in New Jersey, for example, Donald Trump is always clearly above the poll average. Other pollsters, on the other hand, prefer the Democrats. pollster star Nate Silver has therefore compiled a ranking of polling institutes based on forecast quality and transparency. And of course, a lot can still happen between now and the election.
US election will be decided in individual states
A significant portion of polls are a beauty contest: Who do Americans like best? This may reflect the mood in the country, but not the way the country votes.
The US electoral system: The decisive factor is how many electoral votes the candidates receive in each state. Most of them are divided into two party systems: California, for example, has voted Democratic since 1988, while southern states like Alabama have always voted Conservative. Their electoral votes are therefore already allocated: if one of the two gets more votes here than the winning candidates of their party before, this has no influence on the outcome of the election. This is different in the contested swing states. They cannot traditionally be assigned to one of the two parties, so their voting behavior can decide who gets the White House.
The number of electors available to each state depends on how many people live there. In almost all states, electors are awarded according to the “winner takes it all” principle. This means that even if a candidate only receives 51 percent of the votes, all of the electors are awarded to him and 49 percent of the votes are practically lost. That is why you can get the most votes in the entire country – and still lose the election.
This year, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are likely to be the most decisive states. Whoever wants to win the “most important election in the history of the United States” (Donald Trump), the “most existential and important election of our lifetime” (Kamala Harris), must get the most votes there. Harris is ahead of Trump in two of these six states, the Republican is leading in Arizona and in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania the two are tied.
Two months before the vote, it is still completely unclear who will win the race for the White House.
Will the government be governed with or against Congress?
The question of whether the winner of the election will have to govern with or against the US Congress is just as open, as representatives for both chambers of the US political system will be elected at the same time.
House of Representatives: This election often seems unspectacular, but it has serious consequences. The Congress itself is comparable to the German Bundestag, although less powerful. Nevertheless, a US president can only govern to a limited extent without a majority. The representatives, who are re-elected every two years, can at least significantly delay the government’s plans.
This is also currently happening, as the Republicans are the largest of the two factions with 220 of the 435 seats. As in Germany, parliamentarians are elected in constituencies. According to current projections, the conservatives have a good chance of defending their majority.
Senate: Nothing in US politics works without the second, upper chamber of Congress. Even more than the House of Representatives, the Senators control the head of state in the Oval Office. All members of the government, the highest judges and international treaties require the approval of this chamber.
Around a third of the 100 seats are re-elected every two years. Each state always sends two senators. The current tie is between Democrats and Republicans. In the event of a tie, the US Vice President has the deciding vote – currently Kamala Harris. 34 seats are up for re-election this year, and according to the polls, the tie remains, but with a slight tendency towards a Republican majority.
Sources:538.com, , “”, , , , DPA, AFP, Reuters,
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I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
