The Russian army has begun its counteroffensive in the Kursk region. But it is by no means clear whether it will be successful, says expert Christian Mölling.
According to security expert Christian Mölling, the success of the Russian counter-offensive in the Kursk region depends on the political will in Moscow – but whether this is sufficient is doubtful. Mölling said on Friday in star– “The situation – international”: “If Russia wants to, it can kick Ukraine out of the Kursk region.” Ultimately, the decisive factor is whether the Russian leadership brings in as many troops as necessary – or whether it is more important to them to deploy these troops on the front in Ukraine. The new director of the Bertelsmann Foundation’s Europe program saw no clear indications that Russia would do everything to retake the areas occupied by the Ukrainians. He said: “My impression is that Russia does not want that.” Mölling explained that part of the Ukrainians’ plan was to ensure that the enemy withdrew units from the front in their own country by advancing into Russia.
Situation in Kursk: Iranian missiles change the war
For the expert, it is unclear whether developments in Kursk actually correspond to Ukraine’s plan, as claimed by its leadership. It is conceivable that Ukraine’s aim is to initially hold the area for as long as possible and to weaken the Russian units deployed there during the fighting. Mölling reacted calmly to the new threats from Moscow that Western states would become warring parties if they allowed the use of the weapons they supplied deep in Russia. He expected the USA to expand Ukraine’s ability to use the weapons despite these warnings. “I think that, given the missiles now being delivered from Iran, we are closer to lifting the target restrictions for Western systems,” he said. The Iranian missiles are so fast that “you have almost no options when they are in the air, which means you have to consider whether you can destroy them on the ground.”
When will Russia and Ukraine negotiate?
For both Ukraine and Russia, it is an important question when and under what circumstances negotiations will take place. The outcome of the American presidential election will also have a significant impact on this. If Donald Trump wins, it is likely that he will reduce support for Ukraine to such an extent that the country will be forced into negotiations. Mölling said: “Just as the perspective in the West has changed and there is a higher probability that the Democrats will win with Kamala Harris, the same is true in Russia.” Previous plans therefore need to be reassessed. He recalled Ukraine’s original calculation of using conquests in Russia as a bargaining chip for negotiations.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
