K-Question: “Merz does it” – Söder has to admit defeat

In the end, they make it quick and painless – although it is probably quite painful for one of them. “The K question has been decided: Friedrich Merz will do it,” says CSU leader Markus Söder, adding: “I’m fine with that and I expressly support it.” Merz thanks “dear Markus,” says almost imploringly that they have “a great responsibility in the political center of our country” and concludes with the words: “Here’s to continued good cooperation, especially in the time ahead of us, but then also together in government responsibility in Germany and for Germany.”

When and how did the decision come about?

Merz and Söder had always announced that they wanted to make a joint proposal in late summer. And despite all the statements by the ambitious CSU chairman Söder that he too would be prepared to take on responsibility, the K question had in fact been clearly in Merz’s favor for a long time, and Söder ultimately had no chance. The only thing that was still open was when the decision would be announced. According to dpa information, the final discussion between the two party leaders had been scheduled for this Tuesday for more than a week.

Does Merz have the entire CDU behind him?

For Merz, the most important thing now is to close ranks behind him. This is the only way he can prevent the powerful Bavarian from using signs of disunity to stir up doubts about Merz among the Christian Democrats. Because not all CDU state leaders are likely to be completely happy with the decision.

The fact that NRW Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst issued a clear recommendation for Merz on Monday evening was probably an important decision for Merz, and one that was probably not unconsulted by the CDU leadership. The 49-year-old North Rhine-Westphalian is also considered the CDU’s crown prince in the not entirely unlikely event that the 68-year-old Merz – should he actually become Chancellor – did not want to continue after four years for reasons of age.

It is quite possible that Merz’s decision to resolve the K question before the state elections in Brandenburg this Sunday is also due to concerns about impending turbulence within the party. A poor result for the CDU there has long been priced in. But the formation of governments in Saxony and Thuringia is also extremely complicated for the CDU, as it is dependent on the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance. After the elections in early September, Merz did try to delegate responsibility for the negotiations to the state leaders. But at some point, Merz will also have to take a position, that is the expectation in the CDU.

Why did Söder give in?

No one in the CSU doubts that Söder would have liked to become a candidate for chancellor and chancellor. Especially after the failed attempt before the 2021 federal election, when he had to admit defeat to the then CDU chairman Armin Laschet. Unlike then, however, this time Söder did not have a broad base of supporters behind him in the CDU. Merz is currently considered unchallenged in the CDU and also as leader of the Union parliamentary group.

Even all the polls in which Söder was ahead of Merz were of no use to him in the end. That is why he ultimately had to accept that he had no chance against Merz. His only option was to bow down to the head of the larger sister party: Historically, the CDU “clearly has the first right of access”, which is “a natural right” and which Merz is making use of.

How loyal are Söder and the CSU to Merz now?

That remains to be seen. Both emphasized on Tuesday how close they stand together – also personally. Söder says he is not supporting Merz “grudgingly,” but that the CDU leader has the full backing of the CSU and of him personally. However, there are doubts in the CDU as to whether the peace with Söder will last. Many fear taunts and cross-fire towards the CDU leader, as was the case in 2021 towards Laschet. The result at that time is well known: the Union lost the federal election.

The fact is: Merz is heavily dependent on the support of Söder and his CSU in the election campaign. Because a strong nationwide Union result requires a strong CSU result in Bavaria. It is therefore seen as a sign to the CSU that Merz traveled to the Bavarian State Representation in Berlin for the discussion and press conference with Söder – and that Söder was the first to announce the joint decision there.

But such considerations aside, many in the CDU are under no illusions: Söder’s main focus is always Söder himself, says an experienced CDU member. The Bavarian will hardly hold back in the future. However, this is also being heard in the Union: both leaders know that they are dependent on each other in the project of taking over the government. If things go wrong, both will be held responsible.

What are the chances for the CDU/CSU and Merz in the federal election?

According to all surveys, the Union – and now Merz personally – have the best chances of becoming Chancellor. However, there is still a year to go until the election. And history has often shown that a lot can still change. In addition, coalition negotiations are likely to be complicated given the broader party spectrum. The fact that Söder consistently and categorically rejects an alliance with the Greens further limits Merz’s possible scope for action after the election.

Many in the traffic light parties are betting that Merz, who has often polarized with his positions and pointed statements, will still offend potential voters. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has already said several times that he would like Merz as a challenger. On Tuesday, while on a trip abroad in Astana, Kazakhstan, he responded: “I am happy if Mr. Merz is the Union’s candidate for chancellor.”

What if Merz should still stumble?

Söder, who has had to temporarily bury his dream of becoming Chancellor for the second time, is likely to see himself as a replacement in such a case – which is unlikely from today’s perspective. And only himself. As he said on Tuesday: “Both party leaders ultimately form the center of the Union. There are many state premiers, but only two party leaders in the Union.” A new swipe at Hendrik Wüst.

But with Wüst it is always worth listening carefully. “A prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia is always a possible candidate for chancellor,” he said on Monday evening – but he is not available to run for chancellor “currently and under the given circumstances.” This does not mean that he is completely slamming the door to the chancellery – for example, in the event that Merz should stumble in the coming months. In any case, the widespread opinion in the CDU is that Söder should not be considered in this case either.