State election: Election duel in Brandenburg: AfD and SPD fight for victory

The SPD has been the head of government in Brandenburg since reunification in 1990. Now the AfD and SPD are engaged in a duel in the final stages before the election. Three weeks after the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, on Sunday it is not just a question of whether the AfD will be the strongest force – it would be the first time in Brandenburg and the second time after Thuringia in a state election. The Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the AfD as a suspected right-wing extremist case. However, a government option is not yet in sight, as no party wants to form a coalition with it.

The future of Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke is also at stake on Sunday. The 62-year-old has put everything on the line. For him, the election is the “biggest political challenge of my entire life,” he told the broadcaster n-tv. He does not want to remain in government if the AfD wins the election. “Then I’m gone.” If he wins his direct mandate, however, Woidke wants to continue to be a member of the state parliament.

The latest polls do not paint a very clear picture. In the ZDF Politbarometer Extra from the research group Wahlen on Thursday, the AfD is at 28 percent and the SPD at 27 percent. They are followed by the CDU with 14 percent and the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance, which has 13 percent. According to the poll, the Greens, the Left and BVB/Free Voters do not clear the five percent hurdle. However, a party or association can also enter the state parliament with at least one direct mandate if it stays below that. Older polls had sometimes shown the AfD with a larger gap ahead of the SPD.

Catching up with distance from the federal government

Incumbent Woidke is confident about the outcome of the election. He draws this optimism from, among other things, the comparatively high economic growth, the Tesla settlement that he helped to arrange, the majority of polls that want to keep him in office – and from the fact that the SPD had already managed to catch up with the AfD in the final stages of the 2019 election. The AfD’s lead turned in favor of the SPD nine days earlier.

In recent weeks, Woidke has started a race to catch up that is completely contrary to the situation of the SPD nationwide. In the most recent polls, the party was at around 15 percent nationwide. It is no wonder that Woidke does not necessarily want to campaign with SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz, even though he lives in Potsdam. Scholz, however, is visiting Brandenburg several times as part of his summer trip. Woidke received surprising support from Saxony’s CDU government leader Michael Kretschmer, who called for stability and said: “We must stick together.”

In Saxony, Kretschmer managed to bring the CDU to first place. If the AfD becomes the strongest force in Brandenburg and the SPD comes second, Finance Minister Katrin Lange, as deputy SPD state leader, would probably have first access to succeed Woidke. First of all, there would be the difficult task of forming a government. But Science Minister Manja Schüle and parliamentary group leader Daniel Keller are also considered potential candidates.

AfD wants to “destroy” the traffic light coalition

The AfD wants to “drive” Woidke out of the state chancellery, as state leader René Springer put it at an election campaign event in Forst (Lausitz) – Woidke’s hometown. AfD top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, who the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as right-wing extremist, also wants to use the election to send a signal against the federal government: “We also have it in our hands to smash the traffic lights with these blows,” he said in Forst.

Extremism researcher Gideon Botsch believes that the AfD in Brandenburg has become more radical in the wake of the migration debate. “The language is clearly radicalized, the behavior is clearly radicalized, and there is a tendency towards Nazification,” said the Potsdam-based political researcher.

CDU sees “double Woidke”

The suspected Islamist attack in Solingen at the end of August, which left three people dead, has intensified the debate about migration and asylum. Shortly before the election, CDU Interior Minister Michael Stübgen is causing criticism with his view that the right of asylum in the Basic Law could be abolished because of the Geneva Refugee Convention. Woidke is calling for the migration policy of the past ten years to be put to the test.

CDU regional leader Jan Redmann speaks of the “double Woidke”, who criticizes the SPD at the federal level and changes sides on issues. Redmann wants to succeed Woidke as Prime Minister. He also sees the election as an opportunity to “switch off the traffic light” at the federal level. Redmann’s ride on an electric scooter in July with a blood alcohol level of 1.3 per mille seems to have been ticked off; he has to pay a fine of 8,000 euros.

Possibly difficult formation of a government

In the latest polls, however, the CDU in Brandenburg is only at 14 to 16 percent – just ahead of the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which some see as a “black box”, i.e. a party with unknown content. In the latest polls, the BSW is at 13 to 14 percent. So far, the SPD has governed in Brandenburg with the CDU and the Greens. The Greens, but also the Left and the Free Voters have to worry about being re-elected to the state parliament. However, a direct mandate is enough to be represented in parliament again. The FDP is not listed separately in the latest polls – it is well under 5 percent.

The coalition options after the election are open: it may not be enough to continue the current government coalition. Woidke has not yet commented on the subject of “desired coalition” – he is initially banking on a strong SPD. The BSW could come into play when forming a government. Lead candidate Robert Crumbach does not want to participate in government at any price. As a condition for participation in the government, he demands a clear signal that Germany is establishing diplomatic relations for an end to the war in Ukraine. He rejects cooperation with the AfD, but does not rule out support for individual AfD proposals.