State election: Woidke saves the SPD in Brandenburg – but the AfD gains ground

The strategy worked: The AfD or me – that is what Brandenburg’s SPD Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke made the focus of his election campaign. For months, the AfD was ahead in the polls – shortly before the election it still had a narrow lead. Dietmar Woidke has managed to catch up rapidly for the SPD in Brandenburg.

The 62-year-old, who has been Prime Minister for eleven years, has made the SPD the strongest force ahead of the AfD. This is also a sign of cosmopolitanism and tolerance. Woidke can continue to govern. The downside, however, is that the AfD has become significantly stronger, and the SPD versus AfD duel is to the detriment of the previous coalition partners CDU and Greens, but also the Left and BVB/Free Voters.

The election was also a vote on Woidke

“Then I’m gone,” was the sentence that made the election the most important political decision of Woidke’s life. He had announced that he would withdraw from the government if the AfD – which the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as a suspected right-wing extremist case – became the strongest force. However, the SPD could also have formed the government as the second strongest force, because so far no other party wants to form a coalition with the AfD.

Thanks to an immense recovery by Woidke’s SPD, the party is stronger than it was five years ago. Comrades hugged each other at the election party. The SPD has been the head of government in Brandenburg since 1990. According to surveys, the majority of Brandenburgers wanted Woidke to remain prime minister. Woidke is the SPD’s workhorse. His party has gained despite Olaf Scholz: the trend against the traffic light government worked against Woidke. He therefore ran an election campaign that distanced himself from the SPD chancellor and the traffic light coalition.

AfD sees itself as the party of the future

Despite the country’s good economic figures, the election shows that there is a relatively high level of dissatisfaction. The AfD has grown significantly stronger. “The future is blue,” said top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, referring to the party’s color. He knows that it was primarily the younger generation that voted for the AfD. The AfD has more power in parliament: with a blocking minority, it can block constitutional changes.

The AfD is calling for the state to be partially restructured and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution to be abolished in its current form. During the election campaign, the AfD put the issue of migration at the forefront and, after the suspected Islamist attack in Solingen, incited hatred against asylum seekers. Direct candidate Lena Kotré distributed around 1,000 small Kubotan close-combat weapons.

“Bitter evening” for the CDU

The CDU – the previous coalition partner – is one of the losers of the election. CDU state leader Jan Redmann, who actually wanted to become prime minister, spoke of a “bitter evening”. In July, the SPD and CDU were neck and neck in polls, but the escalation of AfD or SPD has damaged the Christian Democrats. Redmann was annoyed that Saxony’s CDU prime minister Michael Kretschmer personally supported Woidke in the election campaign.

Woidke wants stable coalition

Mathematically, only a coalition of the SPD, CDU and BSW is possible. That doesn’t make things easy: “What we need in Brandenburg is a stable government,” said Woidke. “Political stability means working with partners you trust.”

The Greens – also a coalition partner of the SPD until now – have also suffered from the duel, and there was also headwind against the traffic light coalition at the federal level. The Greens’ numbers in Brandenburg have practically been halved compared to the 2019 election. Their hope that Potsdam direct candidate Marie Schäffer would win a mandate was not fulfilled.

BSW could play an important role

The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition has satisfied faces. Lead candidate Robert Crumbach spoke of a “really great result”. He stressed before the election that he was not interested in participating in government at any price. If it came to that, however, it would not be easy: Crumbach is demanding that, as a condition for participation in government, he send a clear signal that Germany is establishing diplomatic relations for an end to the war in Ukraine.

Greens, Left and Free Voters no longer in the state parliament

The Left, Wagenknecht’s former political home, was a coalition partner of the SPD in Brandenburg until five years ago – now it is in ruins. Group leader and top candidate Sebastian Walter sees a clear reason for the party’s failure in the state parliament: “We were shredded by the SPD,” he said on ARD. The Left now wants to rebuild itself from the bottom up.

The election night was just as bitter for the BVB/Free Voters association. The Free Voters had hoped for a direct mandate for top candidate Péter Vida in the Barnim II constituency – but this goal was missed. For small parties, the focus on the AfD and SPD was crucial, Vida said on RBB.

The election brings new responsibilities for the SPD. It faces the difficult task of forming a government. At the same time, it must try to involve AfD voters so that the country is not torn apart. Despite the victory, the downside for Woidke is that he lost his direct mandate to the AfD candidate Steffen Kubitzki – by seven votes.