Election campaign in the USA: These seven “swing states” will decide the US election

The race is tight, time is short: There are only about six weeks left until voters in the USA decide on a new president. For Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, every minute counts in the election campaign. The Democrat and the Republican will travel mainly to where the election will ultimately be decided – in the so-called “swing states” until the vote on November 5th.

These are a few states in the political center, which in previous elections have voted in the majority for one party or the other. They swing back and forth between Democrats and Republicans, so to speak, and are the deciding factor. That is why the election campaign this year is concentrated on just seven states.

The reason for this is the electoral system. Who becomes president is not decided by the total number of votes cast nationwide, but by 538 delegates from the states. The so-called electors are sent from the individual states and from the capital, Washington, in proportion to the size of the population. In almost all states, if a candidate is ahead, he is awarded all of the electors in that state, regardless of the exact proportion of votes.

Particularly important: “Midwest” and “Sun Belt” states

In many states, it is clear who will win based on past elections and current polls: California’s 54 votes will definitely go to the Democrats, while Texas’ 40 votes will go to the Republicans. In the wealthy and educated Northeast, people tend to vote for the Democrats, while in the Deep South, Republicans tend to win.

Experts expect a close decision in two states in the north of the USA, Wisconsin and Michigan in the so-called “Midwest”. This also applies to eastern Pennsylvania and four states in the “Sun Belt” of the USA, which are known for their mild and sunny climate. Nevada and Arizona are in the west of the “Sun Belt”, Georgia and North Carolina in the east.

Pennsylvania (19 electors)

Many US analyses consider Pennsylvania to be perhaps the most important state in the election. Due to the high number of electoral votes, an overall victory for both candidates without this state is much more difficult. Important issues in the state, which is characterized by a strong middle class, are the high cost of living and the controversial extraction of natural gas through fracking. Harris has recently maintained a narrow lead here in polls.

Georgia (16 electoral votes)

After six victories for the Republicans, Joe Biden was able to secure the southern state of Georgia for the Democrats for the first time in 2020. A particularly important factor for this success was a high share of the vote among blacks, who make up around a third of all voters there. In the spring, however, polls had shown that Biden was losing ground, especially among younger blacks. Harris has only partially made up the deficit. In Georgia, there is also the threat of another long tug-of-war over the counting of votes. Most recently, the staunchly conservative election regulator decided that all votes must be checked by hand. This means that disputes over days and weeks seem possible.

North Carolina (16 electors)

North Carolina is actually conservative: With the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, the state has always voted for the Republican presidential candidate. But with many newcomers and a high proportion of blacks, Vice President Harris is hoping for a surprise. Another election on November 5 in the Sun Belt state could also ensure this, because North Carolina will also elect a new governor. The Republicans have nominated an extreme candidate in Mark Robinson, who denies the Holocaust, wants to implement a ban on abortion and recently made headlines with a scandal about posts on Internet porn forums.

Michigan (15 electors)

Michigan’s Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer is very popular, having secured her re-election two years ago with a lead of almost ten percentage points. The result in November will certainly not be so clear: in 2016, Donald Trump was only ahead by 11,000 votes, and in 2020, the state went to Biden by around two percentage points. It is unclear whether this success can be repeated for the Democrats, as the industrial state is home to a particularly high number of Arab-Americans who are critical of Biden’s support for Israel.

Arizona (11 electors)

Arizona, on the southern border east of California, plays a key role in both the presidency and the majority in the Senate. The progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is running in the Arizona senatorial election against Trump’s friend Kari Lake, who was already defeated in the race for governor in 2022. A referendum on abortion rights there could also motivate additional Democratic voters.

Wisconsin (10 electors)

Wisconsin is particularly competitive: In 2016, Trump won there against Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, Biden was ahead of Trump. Both times, the difference was only around 20,000 votes out of around three million votes cast. Third-party candidates could therefore play a particularly important role in Wisconsin if they challenge Harris or Trump for votes.

Nevada (6 electors)

Nevada sends only a few electors to Washington, but they could also be decisive. In the silver and desert state in the southwest, economic issues are particularly important: the recovery after the corona pandemic has been slow, and unemployment is among the highest in the USA. Around three quarters of the people in Nevada live in and around the gambling metropolis of Las Vegas. Since 1976, both Republicans and Democrats have won the state six times each.