After the state election: Brandenburg election increases pressure on traffic light coalition at federal level

A badly battered FDP, a relieved SPD and a slumped Green Party: The election in Brandenburg has shaken up the traffic light coalition. The disastrous performance of the FDP in particular could have far-reaching consequences for federal politics. The day after, FDP leader Christian Lindner significantly increased the pressure on his coalition partners SPD and Green Party. The Chancellor, on the other hand, stressed that there was still a lot to do – and to fight for. Is an “autumn of decisions” now approaching?

One year before the federal election, the traffic light parties are all facing problems. Not only has the Union just found its candidate for chancellor in Friedrich Merz – while doubts are being voiced in the SPD about Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s re-election.

Election day in Brandenburg was also a disaster for two of the three traffic light coalition partners: Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck’s Greens were thrown out of the state parliament with 4.1 percent. Lindner’s FDP is now listed under “Others” with 0.8 percent. Even the SPD’s election victory has a bad aftertaste: it probably only received many votes because the Brandenburgers wanted to prevent a triumph for the AfD.

Scholz with fighting spirit

In Berlin, doubts are growing again as to whether Scholz’s government will last until the federal election on September 28, 2025. The Chancellor himself made his comments thousands of kilometers away during his visit to New York. The traffic light government has big tasks ahead of it, he stressed, citing the fight for industrial jobs. “And we will take care of it,” he promised.

Green Party leader Omid Nouripour, on the other hand, does not believe there will be more harmony in the coalition. “The big Feng Shui moment will probably never come and no one believes me anymore when I say that.”

The Greens feel bound by the coalition agreement – “but that’s it.” “I wouldn’t advise anyone to put too much emotion into this coalition, even though we still have some ambitious plans that will move the country forward,” said Nouripour.

Lindner: Solve problems by Christmas

Lindner blamed the state of the traffic light coalition for the FDP’s poor result. “In truth, none of the democratic parties that support the state had won,” he said. The traffic light coalition must now deliver on economic policy, the budget and immigration control. “These are the questions that must be clarified this autumn.” When asked, the finance minister gave a time frame up to Christmas.

On election night, FDP Vice-Chairman Wolfgang Kubicki had given the government coalition an even shorter ultimatum for solving fundamental problems in economic and migration policy: “And either we actually succeed in finding a reasonable common denominator here in the next 14 days, three weeks, or it no longer makes sense for the Free Democrats to continue to participate in this coalition,” he said on Welt TV.

The alliance with the Greens in particular is “toxic” for the FDP and its voters. He “does not believe that, given its current performance, this coalition will make it to Christmas.” An announced interview with Kubicki on Monday on Deutschlandfunk was therefore eagerly awaited. However, according to the moderator, it was canceled at short notice and without giving any reasons.

FDP leader does not threaten to end coalition

Lindner deliberately does not go as far as Kubicki in public. When asked about any indications of an end to the coalition, the 45-year-old replied that he was not one of those whistleblowers: “I am not.”

This “autumn of decisions” will show whether the traffic light coalition will find the strength to pass a budget that does more for education, security and investments in infrastructure, but which will ultimately ease the burden on citizens and at the same time comply with the constitutional debt brake. The FDP is measuring the coalition by this.

SPD leader to FDP: Don’t press

SPD leader Lars Klingbeil warned the Liberals not to run away from responsibility. “They were elected and they have a job to do in this country,” he said. Now the pension package must be decided, but it is also about complying with collective agreements and saving thousands of industrial jobs.

Thanks to Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, the SPD got off lightly in the state elections: in a final spurt, it overtook the AfD and achieved more than 30 percent. Party leader Klingbeil wants to learn from this for the federal election campaign: “Clear stance, fighting spirit, unity and courage” are attributes he is taking with him. The SPD can obviously turn the mood and win – if it focuses on jobs, a strong industry and families and takes up the fight with the AfD.

Scholz also stressed: “It is worth fighting.” This is what he intends to do with a view to the federal election, “namely to fight, to act decisively and unitedly and to focus on solving the problems facing our country.”

Klingbeil: No debate about chancellor candidate in SPD

Scholz made it clear that he wanted to repeat as a candidate for chancellor with the SPD what he had achieved in the last federal election and win the race. Klingbeil also wants to have nothing to do with the debate about the SPD’s candidacy for chancellor that has repeatedly flared up in recent weeks. “There is no room for doubt,” he stressed in response to a question about Scholz’s nomination. “There is no discussion about it at any point.” Woidke stressed: “The Chancellor is of course the SPD’s established candidate for chancellor.”

Klingbeil said he was looking forward to the election campaign against the CDU/CSU candidate Friedrich Merz. He hoped for a fair debate on the issue, for example on pension policy and the different economic policy concepts.

Merz expects Scholz as opponent

Merz is also preparing for a “very tough election campaign” – including personal attacks. “We will respond consistently with factual issues and try to get this country back on track. That’s what it’s all about.”

The CDU chairman expects to run against Scholz. “I assume that this will be a dispute between the Union and the SPD and therefore between the Chancellor and me. And quite honestly, given the performance of this federal government, I am looking forward to the dispute.”