Can the FDP still be saved after the election in Brandenburg?

The sun is shining outside and the temperature is pleasant, but Christian Lindner has already pulled his turtleneck sweater under his jacket. Does the FDP party leader want to send a signal this Monday? It is autumn now! Not just in the calendar, but also politically. The Federal Finance Minister speaks of an “autumn of decisions” in front of the assembled capital press at the FDP party headquarters. The question is whether the traffic light coalition will still find the strength to really make a difference on the issues of migration, the economy and the budget.

The Liberals, badly hit, are increasing the pressure. On Sunday they were punished – once again – in a state election. This time in Brandenburg. It is the tenth defeat in a state election in a row since the federal election, in five of which they were thrown out of parliament or remained out, as on Sunday evening in Potsdam. This time they received less than one percent of the vote.

If the FDP were a company, it would probably have to file for bankruptcy. And so, after this latest election defeat, voices are once again being raised within the party calling for an early end to the traffic light coalition. It is desperation that speaks here.

The Liberals have also had to contend with poor election results in the past. In 2013, the FDP was even thrown out of the Bundestag. It was Christian Lindner himself who brought them back in 2017. But it has never been as bad as it is now. The situation has come to a head: As in the elections in Saxony and Thuringia a few weeks ago, the FDP’s result in Brandenburg is so microscopically small that the party is no longer even listed separately. The FDP is listed under “Other”, which means it is essentially insignificant. Can the FDP still be saved?

Opinion researcher: FDP should address this issue

Manfred Güllner is a professional who studies who is popular with voters – and why. The managing director of the Forsa polling institute thinks that the recent election defeats should worry the Liberals. The FDP has traditionally had a difficult time in East Germany, which is why the results of the state elections should not be overestimated for the party’s entire existence. “What the Liberals should be worried about, however, is that there are indications in the East that they are disappointing their core clientele,” the pollster told the star.

The FDP was voted for by the classic middle class, the craftsmen, the small business owners, the freelancers. “But they no longer feel adequately represented by the FDP and therefore some of them no longer vote at all,” says Güllner, “or they are moving to the CDU/CSU and many also to the AfD.”

However, Güllner sees a relatively simple way for the Liberals to be more popular with voters again: “The FDP can counteract the dissatisfaction among its core clientele even in the traffic light constellation, which is difficult for all coalition partners.” The complaints from the middle class mainly concern excessive bureaucratization. “It is difficult to understand why the FDP does not tackle this issue more decisively and thereby satisfy its core clientele better,” says Güllner. “Such measures that work without spending money should also be possible in the traffic light coalition – and could pay off for the FDP.”

How to deal with the “traffic light dilemma”?

His colleague Matthias Jung from the research group Elections has a more pessimistic view. He sees fundamental problems for the Liberals, such as changes in the party landscape: “The FDP has always been a party that was needed above all to provide a coalition with a majority,” he told the starThis was an advantage for the FDP: “In the past, it was able to define itself as a majority provider for other parties and then collect sufficient tactical votes in an election.”

But because there are now more parties in the system, such as the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance and the AfD, it is becoming more difficult for small parties to define their unique selling point. “This presents the FDP with a fundamental problem.”

In addition, Jung sees the main reason for the FDP’s poor performance in the recent elections in the unpopular traffic light coalition. “The FDP has a core clientele that can and wants to be served with economically liberal positions: tax cuts instead of tax increases, fewer regulations and restrictions.” In government responsibility with the SPD and the Greens, it would not be able to credibly sell a liberal, very market-oriented course to its potential electorate.

Unlike Güllner, Jung therefore sees no real way out for the FDP. “The dilemma is to some extent insoluble.” If the federal government does not succeed in gaining more support overall, an early exit by the FDP would run the great risk of remaining well below the five percent limit in early elections. If the government stays in power until the end, it would continue to face great dissatisfaction. “Both strategies are extremely problematic for the FDP.”

How the Liberals want to deal with this “traffic light dilemma” still seems to be an open question. On Monday, party leader Lindner will be fundamental: “What is the source of strength in politics?” he asks in the Hans-Dietrich-Genscher-Haus. This does not come from surveys or the applause of the day. Strength comes from “fearlessness” and from one’s own convictions. “In this respect, I can confirm: we have convictions, but no fear.”

It is reminiscent of a passage from an interview that Lindner gave to the “Rheinische Post” on Friday: “Sometimes courage means staying in a coalition despite controversy, because stability is important and good things can still be achieved,” said the party leader. “But sometimes courage also means taking risks to create new political dynamics.” As far as the traffic light coalition is concerned, everything seems to be open these days – including whether it would ultimately help the Liberals.