Austria: Will the country get a right wing chancellor?

How many eligible voters are allowed to cast their vote?

Almost 6.4 million Austrians are called to vote on Sunday. What’s special: Austria is the only European country where people aged 16 and over are allowed to vote at all levels. This is also possible in Greece if you turn 17 in the election year. There are 183 seats up for grabs in the Austrian parliament, the National Council. There is a four percent threshold.

Who is currently ruling Austria?

A coalition of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Greens has governed for the past five years. The Federal Chancellor is the ÖVP politician Karl Nehammer, who took over the office from the resigned Sebastian Kurz at the end of 2021. He was previously Interior Minister in the Kurz government. There will be no new edition of the black-green coalition because this time it will not be mathematically sufficient and the partners have become estranged.

Which parties are up for election?

The bourgeois-conservative ÖVP is one of the three major parties in the country, alongside the right-wing populist FPÖ and the Social Democrats from the SPÖ. In addition, the liberal Neos and the Greens are represented in the National Council and will probably remain so after the election. The satirical Beer Party as well as the Austrian Communists (KPÖ) will probably fail at the four percent hurdle.

What do the polls say?

It’s getting exciting: The FPÖ led the polls with a large lead for a long time, but that has recently shrunk. Right-wing populists are currently at 27 percent, reaching their previous level. The ÖVP recently managed to catch up. Chancellor Nehammer’s party is at 25 percent and still has a chance of a narrow election victory. The SPÖ is predicted to gain 21 percent, but it could increase if voters move away from the KPÖ or the Beer Party. The Neos are at ten percent, just ahead of the Greens at nine percent.

In 2019, the ÖVP achieved an overwhelming victory with more than 37 percent and will now have to live with major losses. The FPÖ, weakened by the Ibiza scandal, got 16 percent, while the Greens got 13 percent.

Which coalitions are conceivable?

Based on the election results and political decisions, a coalition of ÖVP and SPÖ seems most likely at the moment, even if the Social Democrats have moved to the left under their leader Andreas Babler. Black-Red ruled from 2006 to 2017 and has been the most common government alliance among our neighbors since 1945. A three-party coalition made up of ÖVP, SPÖ and Neos is also conceivable. The Greens will probably have to be content with the opposition.

How likely is a right-wing FPÖ Chancellor Herbert Kickl?

Pretty unlikely. The FPÖ and ÖVP have great similarities in terms of economic, migration and climate policy. In terms of content, a blue-black coalition would be obvious. The problem is the FPÖ chairman Herbert Kickl. Chancellor Nehammer categorically rules out an alliance with the FPÖ under Kickl, whom he describes as a right-wing extremist. Without Kickl, an alliance would be possible, but the FPÖ will not agree to that. Kickl is your absolute boss.

The two parties last ruled together from 2017 to 2019. Kickl was Interior Minister at the time and caused a scandal when police officers from the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution confiscated masses of files relating to investigations against right-wing extremists. The senior director of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Combating Terrorism (BVT) spoke at the time of an “attack”. The raid massively damaged the reputation of the Austrian security authorities, and international secret services even stopped cooperating with the BVT.

Sources: DPA, AFP, “”, “”, “”, “”