National Council election: Projection: FPÖ wins parliamentary election in Austria

According to projections, the right-wing FPÖ will be the strongest political force in Austria for the first time in a parliamentary election. The right-wing populists received 29.1 percent of the vote, putting them well ahead of the conservative ÖVP chancellor party, according to data commissioned by ORF. For the FPÖ, this means an increase of 13 percentage points compared to 2019.

According to the data, Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s conservative ÖVP received 26.2 percent (minus 11.2 percentage points). According to projections, 20.4 percent of voters voted for the social democratic SPÖ. This puts the SPÖ in the range of its record low of 21.2 percent from 2019. According to the information, the Greens can expect 8.6 percent (minus 5.3 percentage points), the liberal Neos with 8.8 percent – that would be a small plus . The forecast by the Foresight Institute was created on behalf of the broadcaster ORF.

The Beer Party and the communist KPÖ are expected to fail at the four percent hurdle. In total, almost 6.4 million citizens were called upon to elect a new parliament. Most recently, the country was governed by a coalition of the ÖVP and the Greens.

The FPÖ’s significant gains are in line with the Europe-wide right-wing trend. Right-wing parties have gained popularity across Europe, for example in the Netherlands Geert Wilders and his right-wing radical Party for Freedom (PVV), the Italian right-wing party Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) with Giorgia Meloni at the helm and the right-wing national Rassemblement National (RN ) with Marine Le Pen in France. In Germany, the AfD achieved great success in the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg.

FPÖ victory would be the greatest triumph so far

For the right-wing populists under their party leader Herbert Kickl, victory in the National Council election would be their greatest triumph to date. Until recently, the ÖVP had hoped to overtake the FPÖ on the home stretch. Chancellor Nehammer tried to position himself as a responsible alternative to Kickl.

In its election program, the FPÖ promoted an extremely restrictive migration policy under the motto “Fortress Austria – Fortress Freedom”. The party calls for migrants to be returned to their home countries and wants “homogeneity” in society as a counter to the diversity that is often sought internationally. When it comes to foreign policy, the FPÖ is extremely critical of the EU. Despite the war in Ukraine, it is taking a rather benevolent course towards Russia and sees no problem with Austria’s dependence on Russian gas.

High hurdles before Kickl becomes chancellor

Despite the victory, it will be very difficult for Kickl to become the next chancellor. All parties have so far refused to work with the 55-year-old, under whose aegis the FPÖ, for example, has given up its former distance from the Identitarians, who are classified as right-wing extremists. Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen does not necessarily have to give the task of forming a government to the party with the highest number of votes. The former Green Party leader has repeatedly made clear his criticism of the FPÖ’s political positions on EU and migration issues.

It is therefore likely that Chancellor Nehammer will be given the task of forging a government coalition. From the ÖVP’s point of view, the FPÖ is an ideal coalition partner, but the head of government has made it clear several times and emphatically that he is ruling out cooperation with Kickl. “Kickl is not in a position to assume government responsibility.” Nehammer had also announced that he would not hold coalition negotiations with the FPÖ leader.

The alternative to the FPÖ is the SPÖ. However, an alliance is considered difficult because SPÖ leader Andreas Babler has moved the Social Democrats far to the left with demands such as a 32-hour week. One of the questions that now arises is whether Babler can stay in office given the result.