BSW: The Wagenknecht experiment – ​​how the alliance struggles with itself

It’s an extremely beautiful Monday morning. Erfurt Cathedral glistens in the autumn sun while Katja Wolf puts on her extra optimistic face. “We are full of energy and we know what it’s about,” she says to television cameras. “Namely to shape Thuringia well.”

It wasn’t long ago that Wolf served as mayor of Eisenach for the Left. She now leads the Thuringian BSW – and, if the rumors from rural politics are to be trusted, could be the state’s new finance minister in a few weeks.

But this still has to be negotiated in the “Dompalais”, a functional building where formal exploratory talks with the CDU and SPD about a joint state government will begin this Monday. The same applies as in Saxony and Brandenburg, where the BSW is also needed to govern: nothing is certain. On the one hand, this is due to the sometimes different interests of those involved themselves. But it is also due to the diverging perspectives of the federal parties and their associated state associations.

In the federal CDU, for example, there is a noticeable minority that rejects talks with the Wagenknecht party on principle. An internal party initiative recently reported 5,000 signatures against coalitions with the BSW. “Hands off this Sahra Wagenknecht alliance,” said CDU foreign politician Roderich Kiesewetter recently. Even party leader Friedrich Merz described coalitions with the BSW as “very, very, very unlikely”.

And there is also resistance to the BSW in the SPD. “Our role is not in a government of small and big evils in which we cannot meet our goals,” the Thuringian Jusos decided in a key motion at the weekend.

What is particularly exciting, however, is the interplay of opposing power interests in the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance. While the party leadership under its namesake continues to pursue a populist fundamental opposition course, the state politicians must now be willing to compromise in the negotiations.

And: In contrast to the federal party, the BSW politicians in the states have their mandates secured for five years and are on the verge of government power. Wagenknecht’s main goal, however, remains the federal election, which will take place in a year or, if the traffic light coalition breaks up, in spring 2025. From this perspective, the state elections as well as the European elections only served as successful test runs.

But now, of all things, success in the states could jeopardize the federal government’s frontal counter-strategy. In Brandenburg the BSW reached 13.5 percent, in Saxony it was 11.8 percent. As a result, the party is needed in both countries in order to be able to form a stable coalition against the additionally strengthened AfD. In Brandenburg, the BSW under Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke is supposed to give the traffic light party SPD a majority. Even in Saxony, CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer cannot govern without the Wagenknecht party.

The Thuringia Politics Laboratory

The Thuringia political laboratory is once again in particular focus, where the BSW even achieved 15.8 percent. Wagenknecht had rented a hotel in Weimar with her husband Oskar Lafontaine for the election campaign and later gave victory interviews on a piece basis at the election party. She reiterated the conditions that she had already set in the election campaign: the new state government must clearly reject arms deliveries to Ukraine and the stationing of new US missiles. Otherwise the BSW would not be able to participate.

Even then, Wagenknecht obviously feared that the freely elected members of the three state parliamentary groups would become independent. Because unlike her, they have something to gain from a state government. Creative power, influence and positions are attractive.

In addition, Wolf’s motive was clear from the start to finally give stability to crisis- and AfD-torn Thuringia. The BSW acted accordingly last week together with the CDU and SPD, but also with the Left in the dramatic election of the CDU state parliament president. Not for a moment did it seem as if the new faction would make a pact with Björn Höcke’s faction.

Predetermined breaking points in the BSW

In general, Katja Wolf: It was already clear when the party was founded that the woman, who had already stood out as a real politician in the PDS, was at best forming an alliance of convenience with the former communist Wagenknecht. Now the breaking points are becoming increasingly clear. On the question of starWhen asked whether there would be a dedicated line to Berlin during the exploratory talks, Wolf answered on Monday morning with a resounding “No,” adding this sentence: “But we look a bit tired.”

In doing so, the state leader indirectly confirmed what many in the party are saying: that the Berlin party headquarters is vehemently interfering in Thuringia, which in turn results in constant phone calls and endless video conferences. Secretary General Christian Leye recently even traveled to Erfurt specifically to take part in a parliamentary group meeting. It is said that he once again insisted on the federal political positions.

Upon request, Leye confirmed his visit to Thuringia. “We get information and exchange ideas,” he told the star. “I assume it’s no different for the other parties.” The General Secretary evaded the question of whether there were written exploratory instructions from Berlin for the state party. Of course the BSW has an interest in clearly reflecting its positions in a future government, he simply replied. But this is also completely normal.

The experimental setup is completely new

It probably depends on what you consider normal. It was rather unusual that the Thuringian Union leader Mario Voigt and Kretschmer had to visit Wagenknecht in Berlin before starting their talks with the BSW. The fact that the party leader repeatedly places foreign policy demands at the center of state political negotiations has never happened before in the history of the Federal Republic.

However, the current experimental setup is also completely new. A party that did not exist a year ago is holding talks about government participation in three countries, but at the same time wants to enter the Bundestag as the head of the opposition. A CDU, which has always ruled out any cooperation with the Left, is negotiating a joint coalition with a populist Left split. And an SPD that is in one of the worst crises in its long history has no choice but to talk to the party of its former leader Lafontaine.

The outcome of the Wagenknecht experiment is unclear, especially since it is not clear whether the BSW construct, which is partly made up of political amateurs, can withstand internal and external pressure. The Brandenburg state party still seems like a black box, while in Saxony there has already been a vote for the parliamentary group chairmanship between the two state leaders.

In Thuringia, on the other hand, a coalition of the CDU, BSW and SPD would not even have a majority in parliament, but would only have 44 of the 88 state parliament seats. The other 44 mandates belong to the AfD and the Left. For BSW General Secretary Leye, this stalemate is a “special situation”. Meanwhile, state chief Wolf does not see this as a problem. The alliance with the CDU and SPD, she says, is “at least not a minority government” like the previous red-red-green coalition. In this respect we have a “better starting position”.

If in doubt, Wolf could also rely on abstentions from her old party to ensure the necessary majority. Because the left in the state parliament voting together with the Höcke AfD can be considered impossible.