The Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Health reported 367 new corona infections on Tuesday. For the fifth time in a row, the number was between 300 and 400 nationwide. The situation is relatively stable despite the delta variant. “The virus has lost momentum because, according to model calculations, we have around five million immunized. However, there are still around four million people who have not been immunized, ”says Niki Popper, simulation researcher at the Vienna University of Technology.
Overall, the course of the pandemic is becoming more and more difficult to forecast. “We are dealing with individual, local epidemics. These are mini dynamics. If a cluster breaks out in a federal state, the numbers increase sharply, as was the case recently in Salzburg or Vienna. Then it can ebb again, ”says Popper. “Fortunately, if someone becomes infected, they are often less able to pass the virus on because they may come across people who have been vaccinated in the family.”
On average over the past seven days, there were 376 new infections every day. In the previous week it had been 327. So the growth was 15 percent. In the previous two weeks, the increases had been much higher – 110 and 93 percent, respectively.
The reasons that the numbers are currently stagnating could be that there is no major change of holidaymaker, that something is being tested less, that people have become more cautious again after recent increases, according to Popper. In any case, the 2G and 3G rule bring a lot.
A large fourth wave in the positive tests is not necessarily to be expected, but there could be several small waves, some of which also differ from region to region. The pandemic can be brought under control with hygiene, discipline and measures, “but we can only defeat the virus with vaccination,” says the scientist. That is why the most important thing is to increase the vaccination rate, with each individual percent greatly reducing the spread.
“Politicians have to force vaccination and shouldn’t keep changing the strategy towards restrictions, at least supposedly,” says Popper: “In May everyone thought it was all over, in July there was great excitement at the first increase in numbers. Some of the population say we have to close everything again in autumn, others say the pandemic is over – neither is true. “
The incidence is a leading indicator; the situation in the hospitals is decisive. After a downward trend previously (99 patients on Sunday) there were 121 corona hospital patients yesterday. 40 were in the intensive care unit (29). The occupancy is still manageable.
