US election 2024: Current poll numbers for Harris and Trump in graphics

Trump or Harris? That is the question that American voters will answer on November 5th. Now that incumbent Joe Biden has resigned, all that is clear is that someone new will move into the White House. It is still completely unclear whether this will be Biden’s deputy or his predecessor. So far, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are close to each other in the polls. The graphic below shows how the survey numbers have developed since May.

While Joe Biden had fallen significantly behind Donald Trump shortly before his withdrawal, Kamala Harris was able to overtake the Republican after starting her candidacy and gain a lead, as the poll curves show:

The underlying data comes from “Real Clear Politics” or the “Real Clear Polling” website operated by the institute. To do this, the analysts evaluate numerous surveys.

The poll numbers are considered an important indicator of the political mood in the USA, but should be viewed with caution. A mistake in an interview, a disastrous appearance in the next TV duel or another current development can quickly turn you completely upside down. as stern US correspondent Jan Christoph Wiechmann explains in detail here (stern+).

In addition, the electoral system in the USA is complicated. A majority of votes – known as the Popular Vote – does not necessarily mean victory. Hillary Clinton had to experience this in 2016, when she received the most votes but did not become president. The American people do not elect their head of state directly, but separately by state through 538 so-called electors, whose distribution depends on the number of inhabitants. The candidate with the most votes receives all of the state’s electors. More than 270 votes are needed for the presidency. The election process is called the “Electoral College.” Whoever can win the most votes will be the winner.

Reading tip: How is the race for the White House going, who is leading in the current polls – and why? Every week at this point, Stern looks in detail at numbers, surveys and probabilities.

US election 2024: poll numbers in the individual states

While certain states are considered securely democratic or republican, others are hotly contested, the so-called swing states. The outcome of the election in these states is crucial to the final result. The graphic below shows the current poll numbers with a view to the individual states and electors.

The road to the White House is still long for Harris and Trump and, in addition to the numerous campaign appearances, the planned TV duel on September 10th will probably be crucial in determining who gets the votes of those who are still undecided. Shortly afterwards comes the duel between the vice-candidates, who are also very much in focus this year. The exchange of blows between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz should also receive some attention.